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Speaker 1: Ever Duple c Ellen, Heather Kara and Nate Traveller YouTube's

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Speaker 1: endorse ag one also thank you. Yeah, we're going to

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Speaker 1: talk to johnn about that after help Us six. Now

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Speaker 1: it's seventeen pass six, just six more sleeps to go

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Speaker 1: until voters in the US decide who's going to be

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Speaker 1: the next president. We're going to be watching it like

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Speaker 1: hawks as well, because of course it might affect the

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Speaker 1: New Zealand businesses. Liam dan is The Herald's Business editor

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Speaker 1: at large.

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Speaker 2: He Liam, Hey, Heather.

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Speaker 1: Okay, who do you reckon would be better for our economy? Oh?

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Speaker 2: Well, I guess you know. It's a weird one because

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Speaker 2: we don't really know a lot, partly because I think

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris has been a bit vague on policy. We

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Speaker 2: don't know exactly what's coming there. And then of course

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Speaker 2: good old Donald Trump. He is so incredibly specific about

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Speaker 2: all the things he's going to do, and then it's

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Speaker 2: very hard to know, you know, exactly whether he will

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Speaker 2: do them because what he sees is sometimes a bit different.

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Speaker 2: The trade stuff I think makes life a little bit

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Speaker 2: difficult for New Zealand. So that's that's the big policy

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Speaker 2: from Donald trum Rump is putting ten percent tariffs on

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Speaker 2: everything that goes into the United States, and then sixty

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Speaker 2: percent tariffs on Chinese goods, which could also have some

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Speaker 2: weird you know, if you think about it, what's that

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Speaker 2: going to mean for all the Chinese goods around the world.

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Speaker 2: It may actually mean some cheap stuff coming our way,

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Speaker 2: which we don't probably need more of, but maybe electric

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Speaker 2: cars all that kind of stuff. You know, it's kind

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Speaker 2: of it's kind of uncharted territory. It's a big experiment.

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Speaker 2: So even there, we don't know for sure. I know

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Speaker 2: that you know that the big mainstream economists at the

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Speaker 2: IMF and the World Bank are a bit nervous about

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Speaker 2: the prospect of Trump winning, which you know looks like

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Speaker 2: a pretty good chance. I guess you'd have to say,

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Speaker 2: just because of the uncertainty. It could be good for

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Speaker 2: sheer markets, could be good for our kiwi save, but

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Speaker 2: they still expect a bit of a trumptump.

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Speaker 1: It was great last time, wasn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you're not quite sure what it would

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Speaker 2: be predicated on so much this time because he's talked

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Speaker 2: about the tax cuts again. But there is a possibility

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Speaker 2: that he just can't do them, partly for congre because

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Speaker 2: he might have Congress, but also because the deficit is

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Speaker 2: so huge in the United States, you get in that

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Speaker 2: same situation that Terresa May had in the in the UK,

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Speaker 2: which is that you're up against bond markets, which absolutely

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Speaker 2: punish your economy if you start trying to do things

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Speaker 2: like cut taxes while you have a giant deficit. And

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Speaker 2: as you know, I think it was James Cavell Caville,

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Speaker 2: Bill Clinton's advisor once said, you know, the only thing

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Speaker 2: he'd ever want to come back as to be the

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Speaker 2: bond market because everybody is scared of it, and you

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Speaker 2: know that that could just stymy those plans. So there's

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Speaker 2: a bit of skeptic tax cuts. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, Liam, I mean it kind of counterintuitively,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump actually is pretty good for world peace, right,

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Speaker 1: So isn't that actually weirdly good for us because if

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Speaker 1: you settle down all those tensions, we benefit.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it weirdly could be. If you think

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Speaker 2: about our worst case scenario in New Zealand, it's probably

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Speaker 2: some sort of military action around Taiwan, right, because we

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Speaker 2: have to pick aside and if if it's more likely

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Speaker 2: in that sort of scenario which hopefully doesn't come to that.

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Speaker 2: You that you'd have Donald Trump sitting down with Jujun

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Speaker 2: Puring or maybe deciding not to get involved or something

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Speaker 2: which should which potentially could make life easier for New Zealand.

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Speaker 2: But you know that's I guess, you know, big geopolitical stuff,

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Speaker 2: it's hard. It's hard to know. I guess that's what

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Speaker 2: gets me. It's it's all very very uncertain, including obviously

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Speaker 2: the result, which you know we've got to We're so

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Speaker 2: close now that it's very hard for the polls to

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Speaker 2: really tell us what's going to happen in six counties

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Speaker 2: and three different states. You know, it's crazy how tired

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Speaker 2: it gets in America totally.

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Speaker 1: Liam, thanks very much for talking us through it. To

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Speaker 1: appreciate it is Liam Dan, the Herald's business editor at large.

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Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow

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Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeart Radio