WEBVTT - The Panel: OCR cut, PM meets with Albanese 0:00:05.761 --> 0:00:09.681 You're listening to the weekend collective podcast from News Talks EDB. 0:00:10.401 --> 0:00:13.961 But right now it is time for the panel and 0:00:14.121 --> 0:00:18.801 my guests are. Firstly, our first panelist. As a journalist 0:00:18.801 --> 0:00:20.761 and author, she's been editor of the New Zealand Gardening 0:00:20.801 --> 0:00:24.081 magazine for fourteen years and an all round gardening star 0:00:24.321 --> 0:00:26.201 at Joe McCarroll, Get Joe, how are you going? 0:00:26.401 --> 0:00:26.601 Oh? 0:00:26.641 --> 0:00:29.641 I was so interested in enjoying the intro I forgot 0:00:29.641 --> 0:00:31.521 to turn my microphone on there because I just was 0:00:31.761 --> 0:00:32.841 did you talk more about me? 0:00:35.321 --> 0:00:37.321 Actually? I was thinking how it must be at least 0:00:37.361 --> 0:00:39.721 a month. Where's my copy of the magazine? 0:00:39.761 --> 0:00:41.081 You have to have me on again in the next 0:00:41.161 --> 0:00:41.681 few weeks. 0:00:42.001 --> 0:00:46.521 All good. And our second panelist, I'm sort of struggling 0:00:46.561 --> 0:00:48.081 with how to introduce him here, but he is a 0:00:48.081 --> 0:00:50.241 bit of a superstar in the world of economics. It's 0:00:50.321 --> 0:00:53.681 quite a young chap He's chief executive and principal economist 0:00:53.841 --> 0:00:57.641 at Infometrics and best friend of Adrian or I think, 0:00:57.721 --> 0:00:59.601 and it is Brad Olsen Gett a Brad hay game. 0:00:59.641 --> 0:01:02.401 Excellent introduction. Thank you, Tim, It's lovely to be back. 0:01:02.641 --> 0:01:05.041 Yeah, and you've had a busy week. I mentioned him. 0:01:05.401 --> 0:01:08.001 Oh, I mean it's always busy weeking economics, but certainly 0:01:08.001 --> 0:01:09.561 the first time that we cut interest rates in a 0:01:09.561 --> 0:01:11.081 couple of years, Yeah, big time. 0:01:11.121 --> 0:01:12.761 Well we're going to dig into that into a moment, 0:01:12.841 --> 0:01:18.081 but first, cab off the rank guys. The meth laced 0:01:18.201 --> 0:01:23.201 lolly's story, it's kind of but surreal. When I first 0:01:23.281 --> 0:01:25.761 heard about it, I thought, do I need to be 0:01:25.801 --> 0:01:27.841 paranoid as a dad and go and tell my kids, 0:01:27.881 --> 0:01:29.521 by the way, just on the off chance that you're 0:01:29.521 --> 0:01:32.241 at netball and somebody's hands around the suites, if it's 0:01:32.321 --> 0:01:37.761 the pineapple flavored render lollies, don't have them. And funny 0:01:37.761 --> 0:01:39.121 thing is it does seem to have been a bit 0:01:39.121 --> 0:01:41.921 more wise purpose. Quite a horrendous story, isn't it, Brad. 0:01:41.721 --> 0:01:43.481 Oh, it's huge, I think as well. When I first 0:01:43.561 --> 0:01:46.081 heard this, I think everyone was like, what, what cruel 0:01:46.161 --> 0:01:49.121 human being is going to try and you know, drug 0:01:49.201 --> 0:01:52.401 people by giving these lollies through to something like Auckland 0:01:52.401 --> 0:01:54.721 Mission City Mission. But it then turns out that it 0:01:54.841 --> 0:01:58.761 probably seems like a drug operation gone wrong, and instead 0:01:58.761 --> 0:02:00.641 of swapping out the shipment at the right place, the 0:02:00.681 --> 0:02:03.241 drug mules have kept the you know, the lollies or 0:02:03.281 --> 0:02:04.921 the drugs and the lollies and handed them over. 0:02:05.721 --> 0:02:07.761 It does make you think not to minimize the seriousness 0:02:07.801 --> 0:02:09.881 of this, because it's an awful, awful thing. You feel 0:02:09.921 --> 0:02:12.121 desperately sorry for the staff at the mission. But it 0:02:12.161 --> 0:02:13.881 does make you think that somewhere out there, someone's got 0:02:13.881 --> 0:02:15.721 a bag of pineapple sweets and they think they've got 0:02:15.761 --> 0:02:17.881 hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of ban and fetamine. 0:02:17.881 --> 0:02:18.481 What a rip off? 0:02:18.561 --> 0:02:21.481 Right, Actually, do you feel sorry for the drug dealer 0:02:21.521 --> 0:02:23.921 who's just lost a fortune. I mean, it has to 0:02:24.001 --> 0:02:28.001 be a smuggling operation that's been accidentally, you know. I mean, 0:02:28.041 --> 0:02:31.121 I'm not sure that this scenario would apply. But imagine 0:02:31.121 --> 0:02:33.041 if the smuggler was sort of just a middle class 0:02:33.081 --> 0:02:34.801 family and be like, honey, what did you do with 0:02:34.881 --> 0:02:37.281 those those packets of sweets that were just in the 0:02:37.321 --> 0:02:39.761 corner over there? I gave them to the city mission. 0:02:40.921 --> 0:02:43.001 So what it wasn't so serious. 0:02:43.081 --> 0:02:44.721 It would be a great movie in a couple of 0:02:44.761 --> 0:02:46.921 years time, you wonder sort of thing. But I mean, 0:02:46.921 --> 0:02:49.601 I think I don't think they've got them all back in. 0:02:49.841 --> 0:02:51.961 I think they've got very strong lines of inquiring someone. 0:02:51.961 --> 0:02:53.641 I think they've got a better idea of where they've 0:02:53.641 --> 0:02:55.281 all gone. But I mean the fact that they got 0:02:55.281 --> 0:02:57.121 out there. I think there is still that little bit 0:02:57.121 --> 0:02:58.961 of caution and that's probably appropriate at the moment. If 0:02:59.001 --> 0:03:00.881 you've got some sort of random lollies that you don't 0:03:00.881 --> 0:03:03.401 normally have, then maybe yeah, just be careful. 0:03:03.561 --> 0:03:05.401 Yeah, well, I mean, you know, I think it's four 0:03:05.401 --> 0:03:08.001 people have needed medical attention so far, and they certainly 0:03:08.041 --> 0:03:09.961 haven't got them all back, and we don't have to 0:03:09.961 --> 0:03:12.161 think back very far. In the news cycle, there was 0:03:12.161 --> 0:03:14.921 that meth in the beer and a guy died, you know, 0:03:15.161 --> 0:03:20.201 I mean, you know, you're right, it's almost a funny story, 0:03:20.201 --> 0:03:23.121 but the seriousness of it is devastating, and it just 0:03:23.161 --> 0:03:25.521 made me think I must, I must myself make a 0:03:25.561 --> 0:03:28.401 donation to the mission because they do such important work 0:03:29.761 --> 0:03:32.881 and they help a really vulnerable cohortive of New Zealanders, 0:03:33.201 --> 0:03:36.441 and you know, I just feel an immense sympathy for 0:03:36.521 --> 0:03:37.001 the stuff. 0:03:37.121 --> 0:03:39.201 Actually, what a class act you are, Joe, to turn 0:03:39.201 --> 0:03:41.801 it around into such a beautiful charitable segue there, and 0:03:41.841 --> 0:03:43.321 to support our city mission. 0:03:43.561 --> 0:03:44.721 Well try. 0:03:45.721 --> 0:03:47.761 It sounds like I'm being lighthearted, but I mean, seriously, 0:03:47.961 --> 0:03:51.001 I mean, it's worth remembering. I mean, how mortified they 0:03:51.081 --> 0:03:54.521 must be and how stressful. It's like, oh my goodness, 0:03:54.521 --> 0:03:55.921 we've given all that these packages. 0:03:56.041 --> 0:03:58.921 How frightened because it's Lolly's and we know who loves 0:03:59.001 --> 0:04:01.361 lollies and its kids, and so you know, you think 0:04:01.401 --> 0:04:06.201 this so far, luckily the worst and happened, but you know, 0:04:06.241 --> 0:04:07.961 they haven't found all the lollies. And I just think 0:04:08.041 --> 0:04:11.961 it is a terrifying situation that I take very seriously. 0:04:12.121 --> 0:04:14.681 Yes, of course, but I'm not sure it's the smartest 0:04:14.721 --> 0:04:16.921 move for someone to sell sell one of the sweets 0:04:16.961 --> 0:04:20.241 on trade me maybe you've found an innocent suite. And 0:04:20.441 --> 0:04:25.361 because somebody's been somebody's been pinged for trying to sell one. 0:04:24.601 --> 0:04:26.521 On Facebook marketplace. 0:04:27.201 --> 0:04:31.321 Facebook marketplace, Dodgy okay, sorry, the other one. 0:04:31.761 --> 0:04:34.041 I mean, I would say, yeah, I think that that person, 0:04:34.161 --> 0:04:36.721 whether they've got the lollies or not, deserve sanctions, as 0:04:36.761 --> 0:04:39.481 does anyone trying to buy it, Like yeah. 0:04:39.321 --> 0:04:40.721 Yeah, what are you up to there? I mean, you're 0:04:40.721 --> 0:04:43.161 just waving the sort of flag for the police and someone. 0:04:43.321 --> 0:04:45.321 I mean, and I think that's the thing. We're having 0:04:45.401 --> 0:04:47.241 a bit of a light there's a bit of light hardedness. 0:04:47.281 --> 0:04:49.201 I think through it. It's obviously a very serious manner. 0:04:49.681 --> 0:04:51.881 But people who are sort of taking any further than that, 0:04:51.881 --> 0:04:54.281 that's that's real sort of cold hearted stuff out there. 0:04:54.401 --> 0:04:57.961 Yeah, hey, by the way, would you if you had 0:04:57.961 --> 0:05:00.641 an intercept with one by accident and somebody said, hey, 0:05:00.681 --> 0:05:02.601 look look what I found, would you give it a lick? 0:05:03.761 --> 0:05:06.921 You're assuming here that we didn't know that they know. 0:05:07.041 --> 0:05:09.081 You've got a strong suspicion that it's one. Would you 0:05:09.201 --> 0:05:10.641 be like, well, how bad does it? 0:05:10.761 --> 0:05:11.761 No? Nobody near? 0:05:12.681 --> 0:05:14.921 But what I think would be fast atrized those people who, 0:05:15.201 --> 0:05:17.641 you know, because I don't know what myth tastes like 0:05:17.681 --> 0:05:21.241 when you're on a fake pure lolly. So but I 0:05:21.241 --> 0:05:21.801 think one. 0:05:21.641 --> 0:05:24.721 Of the people who got it early was a recovering 0:05:24.721 --> 0:05:29.241 myth afetamine addict. Gods and so did recognize it because 0:05:29.241 --> 0:05:29.721 it was something? 0:05:29.881 --> 0:05:31.161 Is that how it got picked up? Because I mean, 0:05:31.601 --> 0:05:33.121 how did this get picked up? Who? 0:05:33.841 --> 0:05:37.081 Somebody? Because somebody said that actually I can't remember the 0:05:37.081 --> 0:05:38.761 genesis of it actually, because. 0:05:38.681 --> 0:05:41.961 Somebody must have been this person who got That's. 0:05:41.841 --> 0:05:44.881 My understanding of it, if I've understood it correctly. But yeah, 0:05:44.921 --> 0:05:47.001 you think that's someone who's gotten themselves clean and been 0:05:47.041 --> 0:05:49.561 cleaned for several years. You know, the exposure to a 0:05:49.561 --> 0:05:54.961 myth and fetterman that's just got other consequences shows how 0:05:54.961 --> 0:05:56.321 easy it is to get them in as well. 0:05:56.401 --> 0:05:58.361 Obviously if you know they're showing up in lollies and 0:05:58.401 --> 0:06:00.841 the places are not meant to it's obviously permissive enough. 0:06:00.961 --> 0:06:04.401 Of course, there's you don't need to take drugs. In fact, 0:06:04.441 --> 0:06:07.121 none of us do. Hopefully alcohol of course is a drag, 0:06:07.161 --> 0:06:09.961 but Brad especially you don't need to because you've been 0:06:10.041 --> 0:06:12.041 high all day on the OC all day, or all 0:06:12.081 --> 0:06:15.401 week on. Just the impending and the resulting OCR announcement 0:06:15.641 --> 0:06:17.681 being cut for five point two to five point two 0:06:17.721 --> 0:06:21.041 five percent. Yes, exciting week for you. 0:06:21.241 --> 0:06:24.081 Oh huge week, I mean, and I think the right decision. 0:06:24.121 --> 0:06:26.041 I mean, it's quite clear out there that the economy 0:06:26.121 --> 0:06:27.721 is in a week of place. You look at consumer 0:06:27.801 --> 0:06:30.601 spending activity down nearly five percent over the last year. 0:06:30.961 --> 0:06:34.121 You look at manufacturing, construction. No one's doing particularly well 0:06:34.121 --> 0:06:35.721 at the moment, and if they are, they're keeping. 0:06:35.601 --> 0:06:36.241 Quiet about it. 0:06:36.801 --> 0:06:39.201 But for the Reserve Bank to three months ago, say 0:06:39.281 --> 0:06:42.001 everyone just call your jets. We're possibly going to have 0:06:42.001 --> 0:06:44.081 to increase interest rates. We're certainly not going to cut 0:06:44.121 --> 0:06:46.641 them for just about another year. Sure, they came through 0:06:46.681 --> 0:06:48.281 in July and sort of said, well, look, we're going 0:06:48.361 --> 0:06:50.401 to have to think about tempering. But to be fair, 0:06:50.521 --> 0:06:52.201 they just said a couple of months back, you know, 0:06:52.241 --> 0:06:55.081 to not worry about it for another whole year. Then 0:06:55.121 --> 0:06:57.201 to come out in August and to cut it. In 0:06:57.241 --> 0:06:59.001 my mind, that's a u turn. It's a flip flop. 0:06:59.041 --> 0:07:01.281 I know that the governor disagrees, but geez, it's a 0:07:01.281 --> 0:07:01.841 big shift. 0:07:02.201 --> 0:07:05.961 Yeah. Actually, just to also remind everyone that they have 0:07:06.201 --> 0:07:08.241 the sort of major updates, don't they, and then they 0:07:08.241 --> 0:07:09.881 have the mine o by the way, here we are. 0:07:09.961 --> 0:07:12.281 So the major update was in May, right, and then 0:07:12.361 --> 0:07:14.961 in July they said, oh we've been thinking, let's see 0:07:14.961 --> 0:07:15.401 how we go. 0:07:15.681 --> 0:07:17.521 Well and as well, look, I mean the governor was 0:07:17.561 --> 0:07:20.881 on with Mike Hosting on must have been Thursday morning 0:07:20.961 --> 0:07:23.121 talking about this instead of you know, that was five 0:07:23.121 --> 0:07:23.521 months ago. 0:07:23.561 --> 0:07:24.001 No, it wasn't. 0:07:24.041 --> 0:07:27.041 It was three months ago. The latest monetary policy statement 0:07:27.081 --> 0:07:30.361 before now was in late May, three months ago, and 0:07:30.401 --> 0:07:33.201 then we got an update mid July, six weeks later. 0:07:33.241 --> 0:07:36.201 We've had the one this week. So in my mind, yeah, 0:07:36.201 --> 0:07:38.881 the economy is looking weak it's looked weak pretty much 0:07:38.921 --> 0:07:41.081 all year. I don't know if your listeners have sort 0:07:41.081 --> 0:07:43.121 of seen I certainly have. The economy isn't great. 0:07:43.281 --> 0:07:44.721 Yeah, I'm going to come back to you because I 0:07:44.761 --> 0:07:46.961 know You've got lots of say to this, but I'm 0:07:46.961 --> 0:07:51.481 going to go no, Joe, it seemed that everyone thought 0:07:51.601 --> 0:07:54.081 a long time ago, a while ago, that come on, 0:07:54.161 --> 0:07:56.201 we can't keep the rates up for the next year. Yeah, 0:07:56.321 --> 0:07:58.361 the Reserve Bank finally sort of agreed with everyone else 0:07:58.441 --> 0:07:59.761 and it was sort. 0:07:59.521 --> 0:08:01.601 Of finally read the room. I mean, I don't know, 0:08:01.681 --> 0:08:05.761 I guess I just my thinking is I agree with you, Brad. 0:08:05.801 --> 0:08:08.001 I think it's the economy was crying out for it. 0:08:08.041 --> 0:08:11.281 But you just wonder if there's the food spending out there, 0:08:11.321 --> 0:08:13.161 and if that deferred spending is going to be an 0:08:13.161 --> 0:08:16.521 inflationary sugar rush, if there's all these property buyers and 0:08:16.561 --> 0:08:19.161 investment property owners who are just going to rush out 0:08:19.841 --> 0:08:23.001 waiting for the market to bottom, and in which case, 0:08:23.481 --> 0:08:25.921 you know, all going to have Though. 0:08:26.161 --> 0:08:29.801 I think economic I think the economy is not in 0:08:29.881 --> 0:08:31.521 very good shape right now, so I'm not sure whether 0:08:31.601 --> 0:08:32.841 it all really do too much. 0:08:33.561 --> 0:08:36.361 But the point that Joe mates is an interesting one right, like, 0:08:36.401 --> 0:08:38.361 how many people out there have got a bunch of 0:08:38.401 --> 0:08:40.681 money either are going to invest in property or go 0:08:40.721 --> 0:08:42.681 and spend down the shops or whatever. It's not looking 0:08:42.721 --> 0:08:44.841 good at the moment, but it's sort of sitting there 0:08:44.881 --> 0:08:47.041 and going, look, now that things are about to get 0:08:47.081 --> 0:08:49.201 a bit cheaper, Like now I actually can think about 0:08:49.201 --> 0:08:51.801 affording that house. Whatever might not be huge, and I 0:08:51.801 --> 0:08:54.481 think that's the thing we probably won't know immediately. But 0:08:54.561 --> 0:08:56.681 here's the other this is I think the bigger question 0:08:56.801 --> 0:08:58.921 for me is that, Okay, back in May they said 0:08:58.921 --> 0:09:01.361 one thing though, and they very much didn't stick to it. 0:09:01.521 --> 0:09:04.281 People will have made decisions based on how strong of 0:09:04.321 --> 0:09:07.081 a view they can communicated out in May. People will 0:09:07.121 --> 0:09:09.481 now be taking cues from what they've said in the 0:09:09.561 --> 0:09:12.121 last week, where it's sort of implied the interest rates 0:09:12.121 --> 0:09:14.561 will be continuing to fall. I think the only important 0:09:14.601 --> 0:09:17.481 kevit The important caution here is that the Monetary Policy Committee, 0:09:17.481 --> 0:09:20.001 the guys who said interest rates did say, look, the 0:09:20.041 --> 0:09:23.521 pace of easing will basically depend on how inflation goes. 0:09:23.561 --> 0:09:26.561 So it is not absolutely golden and locked in stone 0:09:26.561 --> 0:09:28.521 that they will continue to cut or that they will 0:09:28.561 --> 0:09:30.641 continue to cut in such a way. They might go fast, 0:09:30.641 --> 0:09:32.521 they might go slower. It's all going to be data 0:09:32.601 --> 0:09:33.401 dependent from here. 0:09:34.321 --> 0:09:36.641 The other thing about Adrianaw's interview, I heard him with 0:09:36.681 --> 0:09:39.001 Husking and that was a sort of sparky lot interview. 0:09:39.041 --> 0:09:42.121 But I didn't he imply to people that who had 0:09:42.281 --> 0:09:45.321 were criticizing him that he or his reason said, I'm sorry, 0:09:45.361 --> 0:09:48.321 I didn't put pictures in the report or something. Did 0:09:48.321 --> 0:09:50.281 he was he sniping at people like you? 0:09:51.041 --> 0:09:53.521 Ah, Look, I mean I wouldn't as. 0:09:55.321 --> 0:09:55.681 Possibly. 0:09:56.001 --> 0:09:58.081 I mean, there's certainly been there's certainly been a lot 0:09:58.081 --> 0:09:59.921 of strong views, and I mean I obviously have put 0:09:59.961 --> 0:10:00.721 some of those. 0:10:00.561 --> 0:10:03.361 Out here in the sphere of your generation. 0:10:03.481 --> 0:10:05.921 Yeah, I didn't know and how bad. But I mean 0:10:05.961 --> 0:10:07.961 that's because this stuff is important, Like you know, this 0:10:08.041 --> 0:10:10.321 is make or break for a lot of households, a 0:10:10.321 --> 0:10:11.881 lot of families who have got, you know, some pretty 0:10:11.881 --> 0:10:13.521 big mortgages. And then in recent times. 0:10:14.281 --> 0:10:14.961 I'm not asking for. 0:10:14.961 --> 0:10:17.041 Everyone to be perfect. Gosh, I'm not a perfect person, 0:10:17.281 --> 0:10:18.961 but I do think it's important that when you're going 0:10:19.001 --> 0:10:22.201 to do such a big pivot, if everyone in the 0:10:22.241 --> 0:10:24.361 market doesn't understand what you're saying. And let's be clear, 0:10:24.401 --> 0:10:27.201 most economists most market commentators. There was a big split 0:10:27.241 --> 0:10:30.321 between people who said, maybe it falls, maybe it's on hold. 0:10:30.521 --> 0:10:33.241 Who the heck knows that says that something along the 0:10:33.281 --> 0:10:36.081 line hasn't been communicated properly because we've all taken the 0:10:36.081 --> 0:10:39.161 same information and got different views. That's on the Reserve Bank. 0:10:40.241 --> 0:10:43.081 The other thing, Joe, actually that I did see. Look, 0:10:43.121 --> 0:10:45.601 I've probably been critical of Adrian. I got a C 0:10:45.721 --> 0:10:48.761 minus or C plus and economics, I'm no genius. But 0:10:48.921 --> 0:10:51.161 the thing that I think people there's this language that 0:10:51.881 --> 0:10:54.121 economists use generally that there's going to be a bit 0:10:54.121 --> 0:10:56.241 of pain out there, and the Reserve Bank use it like, well, 0:10:56.281 --> 0:10:58.761 there'll be some pain, but what the pain is is 0:10:59.001 --> 0:11:01.841 job losses and people losing their businesses and stuff. And 0:11:02.121 --> 0:11:04.281 Adrian always in the press comment saying I get a 0:11:04.321 --> 0:11:06.401 bit of motion on that's this stuff. It's like, mate, 0:11:06.521 --> 0:11:08.361 why don't you take a bit of responsibility for the 0:11:08.361 --> 0:11:11.721 fact that you helped with this cheap money which meant 0:11:11.761 --> 0:11:13.721 people bought house and did a whole lot of things, 0:11:13.481 --> 0:11:16.121 and then you've had to cause a little bit of pain, 0:11:16.321 --> 0:11:19.041 you know, and you pretend you're emotional about it. I 0:11:19.041 --> 0:11:20.921 don't know, I'd be emotional if I'd lost my job 0:11:20.921 --> 0:11:21.441 in my business. 0:11:21.561 --> 0:11:23.481 Yeah, one hundred percent. I mean, I think you know, 0:11:23.561 --> 0:11:27.841 this isn't an exit and this isn't an academic exercise. 0:11:27.961 --> 0:11:30.521 You know, this is real people, real lives, and I 0:11:30.521 --> 0:11:33.481 think you do not have to look very far before 0:11:33.521 --> 0:11:39.161 you can see you know, empty shops, empty premises. You know, 0:11:39.801 --> 0:11:43.201 it is tough out there, and it's tough for real people. 0:11:43.281 --> 0:11:45.881 So yeah, I think it is incumbent upon or and 0:11:45.921 --> 0:11:48.201 anyone in that sort of position to make sure that 0:11:48.201 --> 0:11:51.081 that they're explaining things as often as they need to 0:11:51.121 --> 0:11:53.001 in the language that they need to. So it is 0:11:53.641 --> 0:11:54.481 people understand. 0:11:54.881 --> 0:11:57.761 He did a good job of dissembling in a way with Hosking, 0:11:57.801 --> 0:11:59.281 because at the end I sort of thought I don't 0:11:59.281 --> 0:12:00.921 know what to believe any longer, because he was like 0:12:00.961 --> 0:12:02.761 Obi wan Kenobi, you know these are not the droids 0:12:02.801 --> 0:12:04.961 you're looking for. This is not then this is don't 0:12:05.161 --> 0:12:07.441 leave everything these economists. A no, no, I wasn't saying that. 0:12:07.441 --> 0:12:09.601 That was five months, you know, it was one thing 0:12:09.761 --> 0:12:12.281 I say, this is a big change, I know, and 0:12:12.481 --> 0:12:15.601 maybe we didn't project this as accurate as we would 0:12:15.641 --> 0:12:17.641 have liked to. One sentence could have done it couldn't. 0:12:18.121 --> 0:12:20.681 And that's just straight up. Look, we put this out 0:12:20.721 --> 0:12:22.441 of May. We would like you to figet it because 0:12:22.441 --> 0:12:24.721 we got it wrong. Let's move on. You know this 0:12:24.801 --> 0:12:26.641 is now our reed would have gone at least some 0:12:26.761 --> 0:12:29.761 way to recognizing that, whereas I genuinely think that the 0:12:29.761 --> 0:12:32.121 Reserve Bank thinks they were one hundred percent completely right 0:12:32.441 --> 0:12:35.001 in May, and suddenly the entire economy has changed on 0:12:35.041 --> 0:12:37.561 them in the last three months, not five months, and 0:12:37.641 --> 0:12:39.001 all of a sudden, it's a whole lot worse. I 0:12:39.041 --> 0:12:41.361 would have said, it's been sort of continually as bad. 0:12:41.401 --> 0:12:42.801 You look at a lot of those figures, you look 0:12:42.841 --> 0:12:44.881 at how sales, you look at the likes of retail 0:12:44.921 --> 0:12:47.801 trade activity. It's been falling in the last couple of months. Sure, 0:12:47.961 --> 0:12:50.641 a continuing trend from where it was before. But let's 0:12:50.641 --> 0:12:52.521 be clear, that's put a little, slight, little bit of 0:12:52.521 --> 0:12:54.441 sunshine on this. I mean, this will be relief for 0:12:54.601 --> 0:12:56.921 households are starting to see that move. I think that 0:12:56.961 --> 0:12:59.961 will move sentiment. I hope it doesn't go overboard, but 0:13:00.001 --> 0:13:01.641 I think people will be sitting out there and going 0:13:01.641 --> 0:13:03.401 like we're going through the worst at the moment, but 0:13:03.481 --> 0:13:05.041 there is light at the end of that tunnel. 0:13:05.081 --> 0:13:06.921 I think that will feed into the economy quite quickly. 0:13:06.921 --> 0:13:08.641 I mean, I saw some data the other day about 0:13:08.761 --> 0:13:10.241 the number of people who are on floating all the 0:13:10.321 --> 0:13:12.361 number of tempt to people who have six months or 0:13:12.441 --> 0:13:15.601 less before they so it's a big cohort. Yeah, so 0:13:15.641 --> 0:13:18.561 that's going to come if mortgage rates continue to trend down. 0:13:18.961 --> 0:13:21.201 That is relief that will be felt quite quickly, and 0:13:21.281 --> 0:13:24.081 that I think will be mana to a lot of 0:13:24.121 --> 0:13:24.601 New Zealand. 0:13:24.641 --> 0:13:25.041 Absolutely. 0:13:25.161 --> 0:13:27.921 Yeah. Actually, just one little thing. It's you know how 0:13:28.521 --> 0:13:31.321 you see so many businesses closing. I went past a 0:13:31.321 --> 0:13:32.881 coffee place the other day and I thought, that looks 0:13:32.881 --> 0:13:34.441 like a nice little spot. And I went in and 0:13:34.481 --> 0:13:37.401 it's a place where you can literally pick your beans 0:13:37.841 --> 0:13:39.441 and they'll roast them on the spot for you wait 0:13:39.481 --> 0:13:42.121 for the exactly how you want. Yeah. Yeah, But I 0:13:42.161 --> 0:13:43.761 said to them, I said well, and I thought, how 0:13:44.041 --> 0:13:46.201 I haven't seen you guys here before and they said, no, 0:13:46.281 --> 0:13:49.801 we just opened yesterday. I was like, whoa, And so 0:13:49.801 --> 0:13:51.201 I'm going to give them a shout out because I 0:13:51.201 --> 0:13:52.601 just thought it was a brilliant idea. It's a place 0:13:52.601 --> 0:13:56.281 called Deer Deer in Ellesleie, panmea and they'll roast whatever 0:13:56.321 --> 0:13:58.761 beans you want. And I'm not There's no inncent of 0:13:58.841 --> 0:14:00.921 me to say that. I was just admiring people who actually, 0:14:01.121 --> 0:14:02.721 despite how tough it is for a lot of people, 0:14:02.921 --> 0:14:04.761 there's still got ideas and getting into it. 0:14:04.761 --> 0:14:05.201 Given to go. 0:14:05.281 --> 0:14:07.281 I should pop down there with Brad tax im home 0:14:07.321 --> 0:14:09.201 to to Wellington. Of course you've got a few race 0:14:09.201 --> 0:14:10.001 stories down there. 0:14:10.721 --> 0:14:12.241 We do, but hey, look they're doing it tough, but 0:14:12.281 --> 0:14:13.401 hopefully on the up from here. 0:14:13.601 --> 0:14:15.721 Yeah, excellent, Right, we're going to take a moment, come 0:14:15.761 --> 0:14:17.521 back and well we've got lots to talk about this 0:14:17.561 --> 0:14:20.921 As the panel, I'm Tim Beveridge and my guests, my ghosts, 0:14:20.961 --> 0:14:27.841 my guests, my guess Joe McCarroll and Brad Olsen back 0:14:27.881 --> 0:14:28.561 in just to tack. 0:14:31.801 --> 0:14:31.881 Me. 0:14:34.681 --> 0:14:40.041 You can see s. 0:14:43.561 --> 0:14:45.881 And welcome back to the Weekend cleft On, Tim Beveridge, 0:14:45.881 --> 0:14:47.601 my guest is Joe McCarroll and Brad Olsen. You'll have 0:14:47.641 --> 0:14:50.361 to watch that that music there, Tarra, because word is 0:14:50.401 --> 0:14:52.721 that Brad Olsen can bust out some mean moves. He'll 0:14:52.721 --> 0:14:54.561 be dancing before we know it. I don't know where 0:14:54.601 --> 0:14:57.241 that rumor came from, Brad, that you know it came 0:14:57.241 --> 0:15:01.161 from it's from Mike Cosky. Was it based on anything? 0:15:01.361 --> 0:15:04.761 A long story short, I made my way into the 0:15:05.241 --> 0:15:08.761 awards after party one year, I got a drink at 0:15:08.761 --> 0:15:11.641 the bar next to one of Mike's producers, and the 0:15:11.721 --> 0:15:15.401 next morning that entire escapade turned into bread cutting some 0:15:15.481 --> 0:15:19.721 shapes on the darts for until the early hours. I mean, honestly, 0:15:19.841 --> 0:15:22.001 radio takes on a life of its own. Apparently. 0:15:22.161 --> 0:15:23.401 I feel like I've heard that straight before. 0:15:23.441 --> 0:15:25.881 And there was a video though, well, yeah, apparently there 0:15:25.921 --> 0:15:27.881 is video proof now I have checked and no one's 0:15:27.921 --> 0:15:29.601 ever sent me the video. If you are listening and 0:15:29.601 --> 0:15:31.601 you have a video, please send it through. What's the 0:15:31.641 --> 0:15:32.681 text number again that you have. 0:15:34.081 --> 0:15:38.681 Tim b at Newstalk, said be gerddan Zied. Now, the 0:15:38.721 --> 0:15:41.961 Australian Prime Minister has welcomed Christopher Lux and Anthony Albert. 0:15:42.281 --> 0:15:45.241 They've met in Canberra. They've discussed things like Pillar two 0:15:45.281 --> 0:15:48.521 of the Orchest Agreement and the five oh win one deportees. 0:15:49.761 --> 0:15:52.281 I guess you know, they've talked about friendship and look, 0:15:52.321 --> 0:15:54.401 they are our friends and allies in a way, except 0:15:54.441 --> 0:15:56.801 I just wish they'd stop stop sending their problems back 0:15:56.801 --> 0:15:58.401 to us. In the form of five oh ones Joe. 0:15:58.321 --> 0:16:00.641 Oh yeah. I mean they're sending criminals and taking police. 0:16:00.681 --> 0:16:01.441 It just doesn't work. 0:16:01.521 --> 0:16:03.681 Not Actually that's a bad spot, wasn't it. 0:16:03.801 --> 0:16:06.481 That's actually the economist stance on that would that looks 0:16:06.521 --> 0:16:08.081 like a really negative equation, doesn't it. 0:16:08.241 --> 0:16:12.801 I mean, you know, I have I love Australia as 0:16:12.841 --> 0:16:15.281 a country. I have a lot of connection to Australia myself. 0:16:15.321 --> 0:16:18.361 But I think I just feel like Luckson was coming 0:16:18.361 --> 0:16:19.601 across as the younger brother. 0:16:20.481 --> 0:16:22.441 It's pretty much how we've always come across, isn't it. 0:16:22.481 --> 0:16:24.161 I mean, because they It's just. 0:16:24.161 --> 0:16:26.001 A numbers game, isn't it. I mean we've got five 0:16:26.041 --> 0:16:27.241 minute and they've got twenty six. 0:16:27.641 --> 0:16:29.881 Yeah, I would say a Deurn made a lot more 0:16:29.881 --> 0:16:32.241 headway in that relationship. 0:16:33.481 --> 0:16:35.361 It's all come undone again. I mean, what were five 0:16:35.401 --> 0:16:37.281 oh ones? I mean it was just I don't know, 0:16:37.641 --> 0:16:39.681 it's yeah, I mean it seems to have been meaning by. 0:16:39.561 --> 0:16:42.841 Our next penal colony. I think Australia takes a not 0:16:43.081 --> 0:16:46.201 very sort of consistent position in terms of criminals. But 0:16:46.361 --> 0:16:50.321 I mean, actually I would say most countries protect their 0:16:50.361 --> 0:16:53.321 own country. I mean that's across the world. Most countries 0:16:53.521 --> 0:16:54.401