1 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: Killed it and welcome to Shed Lunch and the short 2 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:11,239 Speaker 1: bonus episode where we unpack some of the ins and 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 1: outs of Contact Energies proposed takeover of Manua Energy. There's 4 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:19,119 Speaker 1: lots to digest with this two point three billion dollar deal, 5 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: whether you're an investor in the energy sector or a 6 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: consumer of power or a business hit by recent power hikes. 7 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: To shed some light on why this is a good idea, 8 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: I'm joined by Contact Energy CEO Mike Fuje. 9 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,239 Speaker 2: Investing involves a risk you might lose the money you 10 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:38,599 Speaker 2: start with. We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. 11 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 2: We also recommend reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. 12 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 2: Everything you're about to see and here is current at 13 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:46,639 Speaker 2: the time of recording. 14 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: Mike, thanks for coming in to see us today. There's 15 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 1: been a lot of media about this proposed deal two 16 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: point three billion dollars, and it's one of the biggest 17 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 1: things that's happened to the power industry in quite some time. Today, 18 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: we're going to look at what it means for investors principally, 19 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: First of all, for listeners and viewers who don't know 20 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,679 Speaker 1: too much about Contact and Manowa, can we kind of 21 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 1: explain for us what assets you have at the moment 22 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 1: in generation and how that might change if the steal 23 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:15,919 Speaker 1: were to go through. 24 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, sure, so contact energy. 25 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 4: Probably what we're best known for in generation assets is 26 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 4: are geo thermal, and over the last three years we've 27 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 4: actually invested a lot into building more geothermal with the 28 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 4: Toharer and talk of three projects. 29 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 3: In fact, what we've built to date. 30 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 4: In geo thermal in the last three years is equivalent 31 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 4: in generation output as a steal. 32 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 3: And that just give it some perspective. 33 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 4: And then we have the hydro assets, obviously the iconic 34 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 4: Clyde and Roxburd dam in the Cluther system, which we'll 35 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 4: talk about a bit later, but they. 36 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 3: Were part of the foundation. 37 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 4: And then with that we have thermal assets Taranaky combined 38 00:01:56,880 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 4: cycle plant, the two peakers, and the Foreranaki diesel peaking 39 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:04,559 Speaker 4: plant over in the Hawks Bay. 40 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 1: Just on those we're talking oil and gas for those 41 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:09,959 Speaker 1: gas when you say thermal gas gas. 42 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 4: Powered apart from Faranaki, which is diesel powered, and that's okay, 43 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 4: sort of sits to come on in extreme periods of 44 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 4: periods of extreme shortage, okay, Right. 45 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: So the idea would be that you would phase those 46 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:23,799 Speaker 1: out is that. 47 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, So we're on a plan to phase out thermal 48 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 4: generation and decarbonize our portfolio, and we've been very clear 49 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 4: about that. So geothermal is as good, if not better 50 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 4: than nuclear power. It has asset utilizations of between ninety 51 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 4: five and ninety eight percent. It just runs twenty four 52 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:42,119 Speaker 4: by seven. 53 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 3: All year round. 54 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 4: And then we have our hydro schemes, which are incredibly valuable, 55 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 4: but they are spring and summer weighted, and just as 56 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 4: you get to the end of summer, your water starts 57 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 4: to come down. It's a long summer and you start 58 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 4: to get a bit short, which is why we had 59 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 4: the thermal fleet to kick in at that point and 60 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 4: provide fuel, which is also why we have the gas 61 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 4: storage facility. Now we want to decarbonize, so you can't 62 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 4: decarbonize unless you have a solution to that conundrum. 63 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:17,959 Speaker 3: And that's what this deal is about. 64 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 4: Because Manua has about one point eight to tell what 65 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:25,519 Speaker 4: hours of hydro, but that's winter weighted rather than spring summer. 66 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 4: So as our water with our existing assets starts to 67 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 4: run out, you can look forward to winter with the 68 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 4: Manoa assets and their water starts to come in. 69 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 3: And there's a very nice hedge in there. 70 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: So is it that hydro is the answer to the 71 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: decarbonization more so than other renewables wind, solar batteries. You're 72 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: in those in development stage anyway. 73 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, So the answer is always I've been very strong 74 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 4: on this, it's all of the above. So obviously wind 75 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 4: and solar are the lowest costs, but they're intimittent. And 76 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 4: yet when they're intimittent, when the sun doesn't shine and 77 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 4: the wind doesn't blow, you have to have a way 78 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 4: of firming it. 79 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 3: So, and you mean by firming, so when. 80 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,839 Speaker 4: There's no electricity, you firm it up so that when 81 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 4: we turn on the lights at home, they actually do 82 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 4: go on. So the showers are hot and the bear 83 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 4: is cold. That's the important part, it sure is. 84 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:18,679 Speaker 3: And so. 85 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 4: You can get a with different locations of wind and solar. 86 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,360 Speaker 4: You can get what we call a forming, a statistical forming, 87 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 4: because they know we'll be there. But actually that's not 88 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 4: good enough for the ordinary consumer. It has to be firmed. 89 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 4: And so that's where battery. So we're building the battery 90 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 4: at Glenbrook, but it's also where hydro has an. 91 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 3: Incredibly important part to play. 92 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 4: And being able to firm in those periods of scarcity 93 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:46,599 Speaker 4: when the wind isn't blowing or the sun isn't shining, 94 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 4: but also to cover the peaks, so you've got the 95 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 4: geo thermal which is always there. And then as the 96 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 4: demand goes up and down, you have your wind and solar, 97 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 4: but for the gaps you need hydro and batteries. 98 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: What about low late levels and the like though, because 99 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 1: it's not always the best time for hydro, is it? 100 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 3: No? So, but low late levels. 101 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 4: What happened specifically this year is July was very low 102 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 4: rainfall and it also had low wind, and so there 103 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 4: are a couple of things going on. What you saw 104 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 4: was extreme prices for a period of about two weeks, 105 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 4: which was actually Foraranaki being dispatched into the market diesel. 106 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 4: But what you saw when there was a lot of 107 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 4: rain that came in is that prices went straight down 108 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 4: to almost to zero. And that's just supply and demand. 109 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 4: So the answer to that is actually, as I said, it's. 110 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 3: A number of solutions. 111 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 4: One, we need to build more wind and solar and 112 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 4: more geo thermal, so you raise the base and then 113 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,719 Speaker 4: when you have that period of shortage it's much less dramatic. 114 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 4: You can dispatch maybe intimate and gas, which we've got, 115 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 4: we're retaining. You put it in just for those very 116 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 4: short periods. You have batteries and you have hydro, which 117 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,559 Speaker 4: is weighted more towards winter. 118 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 1: How long do you think you will have gas? So 119 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: I think twenty thirty five was what you were hoping. 120 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 4: We've committed to decarbon net zero by twenty thirty five. 121 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 4: I think gas has a part to play for covering 122 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 4: those dry year periods. For so even with all the 123 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 4: out to about twenty forty, I think gas still has 124 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 4: a role to play. You can turn it on, you 125 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:34,840 Speaker 4: can store it. It's got much lower carbon intensity than coal, 126 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 4: and so for that once in five year, once in 127 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 4: ten year occurrence, it's going to be important as a backup. Meanwhile, 128 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 4: things like hydro, extended operation of our hydro assets as 129 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 4: they stand today, investment in different options around storage, around batteries, 130 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 4: investment in more solar, more wind. The other thing that 131 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 4: really was brought into play and during the shortage was 132 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 4: demand response. So both the smelter and another other large 133 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 4: commercial actually turned down their power demand by over two 134 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 4: hundred megawatts, which is bigger than Tohara. So they turned 135 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 4: down the Ty New Zealand Steel, a number of dairy companies. 136 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 4: So all it's never one solution. It's always a combination. 137 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 4: And that's part of what even in mass market retail 138 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 4: we've been talking about. The answer to decarbonization is not 139 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 4: just building generation. It's also the way we respond to 140 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 4: periods of scarcity. And if we can delay our shower, 141 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 4: if industrials can come off for a short period and 142 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 4: get paid for it, then that's all part of the solution. 143 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 1: It's always a bit of a dance, isn't it sounds 144 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 1: like you forever balancing. 145 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's energy. I mean that's why I came into 146 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 4: energy many years ago. Yeah. 147 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 3: It is a challenge. 148 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 4: It is a challenge. It is fun, it is stimulating. 149 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 4: These challenges never go away. Sometimes there are periods of 150 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 4: oversupply and sometimes there are periods of undersupply, and responding 151 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 4: to those challenges is what gets us up in the 152 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 4: morning and gets us coming to work. 153 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 2: Mike. 154 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 1: If we look at this proposed deal in terms of 155 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 1: the money with shareholders, I think five ninety five per 156 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: share is what they will end up with. You've got 157 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 1: a payment which is combined shares, debt, and obviously cash 158 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 1: in the end, what are they actually getting. 159 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 4: They're getting they're getting a cash consideration of about a 160 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 4: dollar sixteen to share, and they're getting they're getting shares 161 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 4: issued in Contact Energy, So they continue to participate in 162 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 4: the energy transition, they continue to participate in the building 163 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 4: of renewable energy assets, they continue to participate in the 164 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 4: well they get to participate in mass mark retail, so 165 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:05,080 Speaker 4: they become they're still very much part of the energy 166 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 4: sector and the renewable energy sector as an investment option, 167 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 4: which I think is a great outcome. 168 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: So they'll be eighteen point five percent to your register. 169 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:15,079 Speaker 4: Total, There'll be eighteen point five percent of our register. 170 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 4: So obviously their major shareholders, TechEd and Infantil form very 171 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 4: much part of that, which we think is a great outcome. 172 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 4: Because one of the things about Contact Energy is that 173 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 4: we have over seventy thousand investors on our base key 174 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 4: WE investors. We are a KEYWI company, so NOO approval required, 175 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 4: and having a cornerstone investor at around ten percent like 176 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,239 Speaker 4: Infantile of Infantol's quality is a great vote of confidence 177 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 4: in our strategic path as well. 178 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 1: What about Contact sheeholders, are we going to see some dividend. 179 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 4: Love there, we have announced the divid and loved we 180 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 4: announced an increased dividen in the beginning of July, and 181 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:58,959 Speaker 4: we as we said, as part of this deal, we're 182 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,839 Speaker 4: actually prepared put our money where our mouth is in 183 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 4: terms of increased of it in twenty six and twenty seven. 184 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: Thinking of them again, when will this steal actually pay? When? 185 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 1: When will you know the costs all the things that 186 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 1: go around it. There's also a fair bit of approvals, 187 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,959 Speaker 1: lots of lawyers, fees, regulators, fees, you name it. 188 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 4: So look, we've announced the deal. We've been working on 189 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 4: the deal for a considerable period, probably since about December. 190 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 1: Twenty two, that two years nearly. 191 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 4: Yes, these things always take time, but the important thing 192 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 4: is is that we expect the Commerce Commission approval to 193 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 4: take six to nine months, and then there is the 194 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 4: Independent Appraises report that goes to shareholders who then vote, 195 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 4: and then there is a day in court and then 196 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 4: the deal is done. We expect that the benefits will 197 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 4: be fully realized within eighteen months to two years of that. 198 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 4: So we've said, look, Manaua has a normalized debit das say, 199 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 4: about one forty million a year at the moment, and 200 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 4: we expect to bring that up to about two twenty million, 201 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 4: if not more, within a two year period and that's 202 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 4: when the benefits start really start to flow. There's also 203 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 4: upside in that in terms of the development options that 204 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:20,679 Speaker 4: Manoa has, which is fantastic, and in terms of what 205 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:24,560 Speaker 4: I call the micro optimizations about how we integrate the 206 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 4: assets together. 207 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: Because they've got twenty five hydro stations small to medium, 208 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 1: I think most of them. I mean, do you see 209 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 1: any consolidation there. 210 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 4: Not on the operation The consolidation or the opportunities are 211 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 4: at the corporate level where we have duplicate systems. We 212 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 4: have a duplicate maintenance system with dupilate finance system. And 213 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 4: where there's duplication at the corporate level, what we do 214 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 4: see optunity and is the operations are very much clustered 215 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 4: in areas we very much clustered in areas we already are. 216 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 4: So for instance, Manoa is very strong in the Bay 217 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 4: of Plenty, central North Island. 218 00:11:58,760 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 3: That's where our heart and soul. 219 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 4: Yes, Manua has significant assets in the Taranaki. 220 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 3: We're in the Taranaki. 221 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 4: Manui has significant assets in the Deep South. We have 222 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 4: significant assets in the Deep South, so there is opportunity 223 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 4: for the teams to work together and be integrated together. 224 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 4: But that isn't about cost savings. That's just about working smarter. 225 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, And in terms of the development project, so they've 226 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:26,200 Speaker 1: got at the moment I think around four wind, two 227 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: solar from memory. Will you be keeping. 228 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 4: Those on absolutely, And that's when you're in development. One 229 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 4: of the important things that you need to have is 230 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 4: what I call competition for capital. So what those sites 231 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 4: will bring is that one of them is already consented. 232 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 4: I go in the north of the South Island and 233 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 4: then there are two very advanced development options for wind, 234 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 4: one in the central North Island and one in the 235 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 4: lower South Island. And having a development portfolio where the 236 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 4: teams are working hard to get their project forward, to 237 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 4: have that competition for capital to get the best return 238 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 4: for shareholders. And what that means is that you either 239 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 4: do the best projects first, which means consumers then get 240 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 4: the lowest cost electricity as soon as possible. If we're 241 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 4: all operating in different ways and you end up with 242 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 4: sometimes subeconomic projects going first, and that just ends up 243 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 4: with a bad outcome for shareholder shareholders and a bad 244 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 4: outcome for consumers. 245 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 1: Is there some wind expertise that you're hoping to garner 246 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 1: from the stealven Absolutely? 247 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 4: Now, remember we have the relationship with Rawing forties and 248 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 4: certainly Manua have a natural wind capability already de On 249 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 4: Campbell their chair is coming on the board now. Dian 250 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 4: and I have intertwined our careers over many years. Dion 251 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 4: obviously has some fantastic wind experience from his time with 252 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 4: TrustPower and then a CEO of TIM and so having 253 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 4: him on the board with that both energy market and 254 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 4: development experience and whind will be fantastic. 255 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: Okay, So we could see some interesting things happening with 256 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:08,080 Speaker 1: wind with contact. 257 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 4: Absolutely, We're already got some sites, but having these sites 258 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 4: come in will just add momentum. I talked about bringing 259 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 4: our future forward faster is very much the theme of 260 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 4: this deal. 261 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 1: One thing you did say on our program not so 262 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: long ago, back in February with the half year results, 263 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 1: was you thought solar was a niche prospect in New Zealand. 264 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 1: Have you changed your mind? No? 265 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 4: Absolutely, So we have announced obviously the christ at Chairport 266 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 4: Cofi Park, Sola. The opportunity there is that solar can 267 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 4: be built quickly. Yeah, solar doesn't get firmed. You need 268 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 4: something else to firm solar, so it will have always 269 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 4: a niche. 270 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 3: It always look at the weather out there today. 271 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 4: This is Wellington, it's New Zealand. Doesn't have the same 272 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 4: resource as say Australia or Chile, but it does have 273 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 4: that niche application. The wonderful thing about solar, remember is 274 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 4: it's summer weight and one of our major industries, dairy 275 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 4: is some are weighted in terms of demand. So there 276 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 4: is again a niche application I think for solar, but 277 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 4: it won't be providing the same broad base and it 278 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 4: doesn't go on at night in. 279 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: Terms of what you're paying forty eight percent premium. There's 280 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: also some red flags with Manawa. I would say at 281 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: the moment, just a little while ago they had earnings 282 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 1: downgrade about twenty five percent. I think there was a 283 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: bad debt with the retailer involved in that. They've got 284 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: some low lake levels they talked about at the time 285 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: when they did their Q one report. What are you 286 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: thinking in terms of actually is it turning stuff around 287 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 1: or I mean, are the concerns you You've obviously done 288 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 1: your due dilidence. 289 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, no, we did extensive due diligence. So the very 290 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 4: reasons for the earnings downgrade are the very reasons why 291 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 4: Manu it is better together with us, because that broader 292 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 4: portfolio has a order resilience. Now, remember when that high 293 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 4: price period, we did the deal with Method X to 294 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 4: allow us to burn gas, which immediately stabilized the market 295 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 4: along with Genesis and brought back a degree of rational prices. 296 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 4: And Manua being part of our portfolio would mean it 297 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 4: is not exposed to that extreme type of event. In 298 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 4: terms of the assets themselves twenty five hydro schemes, the 299 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 4: important thing is is that people remember eight of those 300 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 4: are of a reasonable size and they will fit perfectly 301 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 4: within our portfolio and with the remainder with those Runner 302 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 4: River small hydros, you've just got to have an appropriate 303 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 4: maintenance and risk management strategy in place so you're not 304 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 4: over investing, but you're operating them safely and if you 305 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 4: have a common sense approach. We've seen that common sense 306 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 4: approach from Manima as we did our due diligence and 307 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 4: we have a look where IO fifty five thousand are credited. 308 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 4: In terms of our asset management. We have a rigorous 309 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 4: approach to risk and investment and stay in business carepex. 310 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 4: We don't overspend and we have a strong track record. 311 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 4: Remember why Raki is over sixty years old and we've 312 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 4: kept it going for thirty years beyond its design life 313 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:14,919 Speaker 4: without a process safety incident, been operating it very safely. 314 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 4: And it's that risk management, that rigorous asset management framework 315 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 4: that we apply that keeps us all safe. 316 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 1: You talk about looking at the deal over nearly two years. 317 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: Was it a time when you thought you're going to 318 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 1: have to do something else in order to get those renewables, 319 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:32,359 Speaker 1: you know, change the portfolio mats. 320 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 4: Oh, look, we always have a plan B. We had 321 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 4: a clearly communicated strategy to the whole of market about 322 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 4: what we were doing, and this. 323 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,479 Speaker 3: Deal just allows us to excelerate that. We always had 324 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 3: a plan B. 325 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 1: Okay, Now investors are not just looking at the dollars 326 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 1: and cents. They are consumers a lot of the time. 327 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:57,400 Speaker 1: Some of them are businesses. We've had the Windstone Mills clothes. 328 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 1: I will say, Mercury, was this not you guys? Does 329 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: that mean with the steal that we will have better competitions? 330 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 1: What I've heard you saying in recent reports, can you 331 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 1: explain what you mean there? 332 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 4: So look, the problem at the moment is that there 333 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 4: is no problem with the electricity market. There is a 334 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:20,199 Speaker 4: problem with the upstream gas market. And so in that 335 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 4: period of scarcity, what you saw is a scarcity of water, 336 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 4: a scarcity of wind. What's the next dispatch gas? There 337 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 4: is no gas, you go to diesel. The moment that rainfalls, 338 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:33,959 Speaker 4: prices came straight back down again. And so what this 339 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 4: enables it releases just through the combination of portfolios, another 340 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 4: two to three hundred gig what hours a year, and 341 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 4: then through the ability to exlerate wind and solar options 342 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 4: that will bring additional supply to market. And if you've 343 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 4: got a supply demand and balance like that leading to diesel, 344 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 4: the only way to solve that is to increase supply, 345 00:18:55,560 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 4: to build more power stations. And I think it's important 346 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 4: that people understand that and look on Winston's look, that 347 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,879 Speaker 4: was tragic when people lose their jobs like that, But 348 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:11,199 Speaker 4: there are systemic issues in pulp at the moment. Not 349 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 4: many of us are reading a paper newspaper anymore. And 350 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 4: so they actually had a reasonable power deal with Mercury, 351 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 4: which was in line with international prices, and Mercury came 352 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 4: out very strongly on that. The reality is is that 353 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 4: pulp economics globally are challenged. And the other thing I'll 354 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 4: say is that other would processes like og Panpak chose 355 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 4: early days to hedge and they have a very sharply 356 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,879 Speaker 4: priced PPA with us through the MUKE which we participated in, 357 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 4: and because they were willing to sign up to a 358 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 4: ten year deal and support the renewable transition, they're still 359 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 4: in operation today. Okay, so it's not as clear cut 360 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 4: as a m it's certainly not quite as clear cut 361 00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 4: as what it was made out. 362 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: The Comments Commission has to approve the steel. You're fairly 363 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 1: confident that will happen. You talk about more competition, perhaps 364 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:11,440 Speaker 1: better fixed term contracts for industrial Yes, commercial operators tell 365 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:12,719 Speaker 1: us a little bit more about that. 366 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 4: So our advocacy is we wouldn't have got to this 367 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 4: point if we weren't confident of clearing the Commerce Commission. 368 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:22,960 Speaker 4: But we have to keep telling our story. Yes, that's 369 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 4: really important. We think the increased supply, both through the 370 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 4: deal itself and the additional development, will it further increase 371 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 4: the downward pressure on prices. 372 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:34,880 Speaker 3: Now. 373 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 4: The thing is for large gal industrials, we are passionate 374 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 4: that the decarbonization of New Zealand should not mean the 375 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 4: de industrialization. And that's why we particularly as Contact, have 376 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 4: been putting in the place these long term power supply 377 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 4: deals at very sharp prices with the smelter with New 378 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:57,200 Speaker 4: Zealand steel, with Ogpampak, with food stuffs, where counterparties who 379 00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 4: are willing to stand up to the mark and invest 380 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 4: it there in renewable energy, we're prepared to say, hey, 381 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:08,880 Speaker 4: here's a project which will benefit from that long term 382 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 4: ppa and do those long term, reasonably priced power deals. 383 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:16,400 Speaker 1: Do you think it's going to mean businesses won't be closing? 384 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: As you've said, it's not always, you know, it's clear cut. 385 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,679 Speaker 4: It all depends on how fast we can build that 386 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 4: new generation. If we get lost in the bureaucracy and complication, 387 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 4: then those new projects will not get built. If we're 388 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 4: able to clear away some of the bureaucratic tangle and 389 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:40,160 Speaker 4: get on with building these new renewable energy projects, prices 390 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 4: will quite naturally get back to what is a fair 391 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:43,880 Speaker 4: and reasonable level. 392 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 1: Do you mean fast? Is it a fast traight legislation 393 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: helping with. 394 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 3: That, or it's all it's. 395 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:57,439 Speaker 4: Stable market settings, it's Resource Management Act reform, the fast 396 00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:58,160 Speaker 4: Track reform. 397 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 3: It is being absolutely its counterparties been. 398 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 4: Willing to invest or sign up to long term PPAs. 399 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 4: It's all of the above. For our investors, it's the 400 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 4: more we can uncomplicate, uncomplicate this whole morass that we're 401 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 4: in at the moment. If we can make look a 402 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 4: solar project Kofi Park took will take eighteen months to 403 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 4: bring online. Preparing for it, even with a very straightforward 404 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:37,680 Speaker 4: resource consent took over two years. A wind farm takes 405 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 4: two and a half years to build. The resource consent 406 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:46,400 Speaker 4: can take five years. At some point, it's more important 407 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 4: that we focus on the people who are pouring the 408 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:54,400 Speaker 4: concrete and welding the steel than shuffling the paper. Yes, 409 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 4: and that's the challenge for us as a nation. 410 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 1: Where does it put contact? This steal does go ahead. 411 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,680 Speaker 1: In terms of where you are in the market, you'll 412 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 1: share there are other generation retailers. 413 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 4: You know, it doesn't change our retail share of market 414 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 4: because Manor has. 415 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 1: No No, it doesn't, I mean, I mean with your but. 416 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 4: In terms of generation, it just puts us on today's 417 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 4: numbers just ahead of Mercury, but well behind Meridian. 418 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 3: So number two or three. 419 00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 1: Are market and is that what you're hoping for? 420 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,679 Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's that's good. 421 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 4: We don't we're not doing the deal just to grow 422 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,639 Speaker 4: for growth sake. We're doing the deal because we think 423 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,480 Speaker 4: it will give great returns to shareholders and that it's 424 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 4: the right thing to do for the country and that 425 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 4: decarbonization journey. If you end up second when you were fourth, yeah, 426 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 4: that's an interesting observation, but that's not why we're doing 427 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 4: the deal. 428 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:56,919 Speaker 1: What about the political interference or interest? I mean, have 429 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 1: you had talks with government about this? 430 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 4: We keep going very well appraised to what we're doing. 431 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 4: So obviously we're in constant communication with the Minister of Energy, 432 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 4: with the Associate Mister of Energy. We communicate regularly with 433 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 4: the opposition. We make sure that we're taking everyone along 434 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:24,159 Speaker 4: with us on the journey. Insurance Shane Jones absolutely, Marta Shane. 435 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 4: I have regular conversations with Shane vet And that's a 436 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 4: wonderful thing about New Zealand is look, you can disagree, 437 00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 4: but you can do it in a way that is 438 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,880 Speaker 4: respectful and you don't have to cross the road when 439 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,199 Speaker 4: you see them on the streets. That's the wonderful thing 440 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 4: about New Zealand. It is a village and the important 441 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 4: thing is we can debate and argue vaciferously, but we 442 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 4: still respect each other. 443 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 1: That's great. It's nice to end on that, I think. Mike, 444 00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,360 Speaker 1: thanks for coming in today and giving us your insights, 445 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: and thanks to everyone for tuning in. You can watch 446 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 1: shed Lunch on YouTube or follow us on your favorite 447 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 1: podcast at Martewa. 448 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 2: Now you can combine the experience of multiple fund managers 449 00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 2: and get even more diversification in your Chezy's Kiwi Saber scheme. 450 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:27,119 Speaker 2: Select up to six base funds ranging from conservative to 451 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 2: high growth to make at least fifty percent of your 452 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 2: investment plan, and add your own picks on top if 453 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 2: you wish it's real choice multiplied. 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