1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,279
Speaker 1: Jason Walls, our political editor, joins us. Now, Hey Jason,

2
00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:06,160
Speaker 1: good afternoon, Ryan. Hey, great news for Winston in this poll.

3
00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was indeed. So I looked at it when

4
00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:10,800
Speaker 2: it came through and I thought, this is the good,

5
00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,200
Speaker 2: the bad, and the ugly across New Zealand's political spectrum.

6
00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:17,319
Speaker 2: Let's start with the ugly. Labour were down three point

7
00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:21,200
Speaker 2: two percentage points to thirty one point six percent. That's

8
00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,919
Speaker 2: quite a hit, although not altogether that surprising, as apart

9
00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,240
Speaker 2: from maybe having a crack at endzet to me and

10
00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:30,920
Speaker 2: its owners, Labor and Chris Hepkins have not really featured

11
00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,080
Speaker 2: in the news a whole lot since this poll was conducted.

12
00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,839
Speaker 2: In terms of the other left leaning parties, the Greens

13
00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,160
Speaker 2: are up one point two points to nine point four

14
00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:42,720
Speaker 2: TI Party Marty pretty steady on three point five, so

15
00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,600
Speaker 2: not enough seats to form a government, not by a

16
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,800
Speaker 2: long way at this stage. Now moving to the bad.

17
00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:53,800
Speaker 2: Despite Labour's vote taking quite a hit, Chris Luckson's only

18
00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:57,319
Speaker 2: zero point one percentage points higher than Chris Luxen. When

19
00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:00,240
Speaker 2: it comes to the preferred prime minister rankings, Luckson is

20
00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,720
Speaker 2: now on nineteen point seven, which is continuing quite a

21
00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,920
Speaker 2: major downhill trend. When it comes to this preferred prime

22
00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,200
Speaker 2: minister polling numbers. He was on thirty five percent on

23
00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:13,640
Speaker 2: that same on that same figure this time last year

24
00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,280
Speaker 2: on preferred prime minister. He will tell you and I

25
00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,160
Speaker 2: guess it's true that it's not about the personal popularity

26
00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:21,720
Speaker 2: of a prime minister. It's about the party itself and

27
00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:25,160
Speaker 2: where it's polling. But those numbers do probably have to

28
00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:26,920
Speaker 2: hurt when you're looking at them. I can't imagine if

29
00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,080
Speaker 2: I was the Prime minister looking at my number tanking

30
00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,160
Speaker 2: that much, I would be very happy or complacent. Then

31
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,120
Speaker 2: we come to the good or, as I would argue,

32
00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:38,040
Speaker 2: the great, even fantastic. As you pointed out, New Zealand

33
00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,360
Speaker 2: First Winston and his troops are up to nine point eight.

34
00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:45,400
Speaker 2: That's a massive three point seven percentage point gain according

35
00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,520
Speaker 2: to the last poll. It's huge, huge moves for such

36
00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,040
Speaker 2: a minor party. And get this, it's actually the first

37
00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,880
Speaker 2: time in the poll's almost half a decade history that

38
00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:57,760
Speaker 2: New Zealand First has been polling higher than the Act Party. Now,

39
00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,320
Speaker 2: we did talk to David Seymour, acting Prime Minister earlier

40
00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,840
Speaker 2: today and he was I'm not going to say feeling

41
00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:05,000
Speaker 2: a little bit bitter about it.

42
00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:07,440
Speaker 3: Well, we're always happy for our friends around the world

43
00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,359
Speaker 3: and are up, up and down the country to succeed.

44
00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,680
Speaker 3: I note that I haven't been asked that question for

45
00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,240
Speaker 3: the last thirty or forty poles, But you know, we'll

46
00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:16,800
Speaker 3: see where.

47
00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:20,239
Speaker 2: The next thirty or forty poles. Not that anyone's counting David.

48
00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:26,399
Speaker 4: Sometimes I think he comes across a little tooth thin skinned. Hey,

49
00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:28,959
Speaker 4: you know the major voting issues. This was interesting from

50
00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,960
Speaker 4: this pole. So of the top five voting issues for people,

51
00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,919
Speaker 4: I mean, you take health out, they are the four

52
00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:39,079
Speaker 4: are all economy related, poverty, employment, economy, and cost of living.

53
00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:43,680
Speaker 4: That's what's hurting well any incumbent. Really those issues are

54
00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:45,320
Speaker 4: crucial for people right now, aren't they.

55
00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:47,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you'll just have to look at cost

56
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,520
Speaker 2: of living up there as twenty one point six percent

57
00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,079
Speaker 2: in terms of the major issues that people say are

58
00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:54,720
Speaker 2: the major issues in the economy. So that's why you've

59
00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:56,880
Speaker 2: got people like Nikola Willis saying that she's going to

60
00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,680
Speaker 2: sit down with Fonterra and talk about the price of

61
00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:01,840
Speaker 2: butter and milk and things like that. They need to

62
00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:04,080
Speaker 2: be seen to be doing something even though people are

63
00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:04,880
Speaker 2: still hurting.

64
00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:06,360
Speaker 1: Because otherwise they're leaving.

65
00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're leaving. We had the migration statistics out today

66
00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:14,000
Speaker 2: showing that migration has moved quite a lot in the

67
00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,600
Speaker 2: past twelve months. In the twelve months to May this year,

68
00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:20,680
Speaker 2: there were one hundred and thirty nine thousand migrants who arrived.

69
00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:22,720
Speaker 2: That is down from one hundred and ninety one hundred

70
00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,480
Speaker 2: and eighty nine thousand in the previous twelve months. Meanwhile,

71
00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:27,960
Speaker 2: the people departing was one hundred and twenty four thousand,

72
00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,040
Speaker 2: which was down from one hundred and nine thousand the

73
00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,520
Speaker 2: year prior. So diving deeper into those numbers, we always

74
00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:36,400
Speaker 2: want to compare our celves to the Aussies. Right The

75
00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:40,400
Speaker 2: net migration loss consisted of forty seven thousand migrant departures

76
00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:45,320
Speaker 2: to Australia and seventeen thousand, three hundred migrant arrivals from Australia,

77
00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,840
Speaker 2: a net loss of about thirty thousand people over to Australia.

78
00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,800
Speaker 2: It's the biggest nest net loss we've seen since twenty twelve.

79
00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:53,600
Speaker 1: Labour's Megan Woods says that.

80
00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:55,880
Speaker 2: New Zealanders were leaving because of the cost of living

81
00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:58,600
Speaker 2: has gotten worse and they couldn't trust the government. But

82
00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:02,680
Speaker 2: David Seymour as ex disagrees with Megan Woods's assessment here.

83
00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,240
Speaker 3: There's no question that we are undertaking a tough recovery

84
00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:11,120
Speaker 3: from a very disruptive event, which was COVID inflation, COVID

85
00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,520
Speaker 3: interest rates, and a recession that came from those high

86
00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:19,239
Speaker 3: interest rates. However, I'm not surprised that in the year

87
00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:23,160
Speaker 3: after the government changed, we still faced very tough conditions.

88
00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:24,720
Speaker 2: So he goes on to make the point that the

89
00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,479
Speaker 2: data girls from January twenty twenty four to January this year,

90
00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,000
Speaker 2: so there is a fairly long lag period there, and

91
00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:32,919
Speaker 2: he blamed the last government for some of it, but

92
00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:36,120
Speaker 2: was actually putting a positive spin on looking forward.

93
00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,520
Speaker 3: I expect that as time goes on, as we maintain

94
00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,599
Speaker 3: really careful spending as a government, as interest rates come down,

95
00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:47,120
Speaker 3: rents get lower, mortgage rates are coming down, there's a

96
00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,279
Speaker 3: lot more reasons for people to stay in New Zealand.

97
00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:51,159
Speaker 2: So he says things are coming back round.

98
00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:55,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think he's I think that's right and always

99
00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,880
Speaker 4: sort of has been, but it needs to happen by

100
00:04:57,920 --> 00:04:59,640
Speaker 4: the end of this year so that people feel it.

101
00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:01,200
Speaker 4: By this out of next year so that they can

102
00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:04,440
Speaker 4: get themselves re elected. Thanks, Thanks Jason. Good to have

103
00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,279
Speaker 4: you on Jason Wall's News Talks. It'd be Political editor.

104
00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,400
Speaker 4: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to

105
00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,520
Speaker 4: News Talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow

106
00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:16,360
Speaker 4: the podcast on iHeartRadio