1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:06,440 Speaker 1: And we're going to our business man, Liam Dan. Liam, 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: good to have you on this show, GDP. This is 3 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: a big story today. 4 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 2: We've been talking about it all afternoon, as I'm sure 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 2: you've been writing about it all day. So one percent 6 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 2: down for quarter three and then we had a revised 7 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 2: quarter two number one point one. 8 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's actually a weird one. You know, the 9 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:26,279 Speaker 3: more you look at it, it looked, you know, the 10 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 3: initial reaction was holy heck, this is really ugly, and 11 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:33,159 Speaker 3: it was, but then you look at the revisions and 12 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 3: so it turns out that in twenty twenty three we 13 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 3: never had a recession according to these numbers. And then 14 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 3: actually the economy, according to the economists and reading is 15 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 3: slightly bigger than across the last two years, has grown 16 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 3: slightly more than originally forecast and then was forecast save 17 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:57,639 Speaker 3: and in the June numbers. So it is like it's 18 00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 3: a very gloomy thing to happen right before Christmas we 19 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 3: had that awful half year economic update from the government 20 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 3: and Treasury as well. But I just think it's important 21 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 3: at this point in time to put it in context 22 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 3: and go, hey, this has already happened, so this is historic. 23 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,559 Speaker 3: It really just tells us that how bad it felt 24 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 3: in the middle of the year, you know, and lines 25 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:20,919 Speaker 3: up a bit more with the anecdotes and about about 26 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 3: how bad things were. But it doesn't kind of change 27 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 3: reality in our world. And the economists are still pretty 28 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 3: optimistic that this was the worst of it. So I 29 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 3: don't know, I might be clutching at straws and I'm 30 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 3: trying to be a bit optimistic as we hit into Christmas. 31 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: Well, we certainly need it. 32 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 2: I mean, the number was quite shocking, and and the 33 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 2: revised number, you know, equally as shocking. We had Stephen 34 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 2: Joyce on earlier he Reckons and he said that Adrian 35 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 2: or has a lot of questions to answer now he's 36 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 2: overcooked the correction. 37 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: Do you agree with that? 38 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I guess that is something that you've 39 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 3: got to ask. I mean that that they we were 40 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 3: all screaming for inflation to be taken out. I got 41 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 3: to say, including Stephen Joyce, everyone wanted to see them 42 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 3: really hammer inflation, and so they've they've gone really hard. 43 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 3: Look it may it's certainly going to raise calls for 44 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 3: some Some economists are saying we need to go seventy 45 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 3: five basis points for the next cut, get it down faster. Yeah, 46 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 3: I mean, I guess, I guess there's an argument there. 47 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 3: I do think it is important to look at what's 48 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 3: happened to these numbers and what's happening at stats n Z. 49 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 3: It is a really odd one. You know, they've done 50 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 3: a lot of seat, They've had to rework all their 51 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 3: seasonal adjustments, and you've now got economists saying that the 52 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 3: next quarter might look really strong, stronger than it really 53 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 3: matches up with their real world experience. So I'd put 54 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 3: a caveat around the GDP numbers for a little while. 55 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 3: In fact, they always seem to be revised, and I 56 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 3: try to put caveats around it. Then they have to 57 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 3: write the story with the horrible headline when it all breaks, 58 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 3: of course, But yeah, I think I think we've got 59 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 3: to be a bit careful. I use the analogy of 60 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 3: if you survive a hurricane and you thought you're surviving 61 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 3: a category four hurricane and you get through it, and 62 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,959 Speaker 3: then someone tells you you've just survived a category five hurricane, 63 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 3: you know you shouldn't really feel any worse. You should 64 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 3: possibly feel a little better that you've got through it. 65 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 3: So I mean, everyone was pretty glum in the middle 66 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 3: of the year, and maybe the numbers didn't seem that bad, 67 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 3: and now we know it was that bad. So look, 68 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 3: you know, fair play to guys like Joyce and a 69 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 3: few other commentators who were saying that this is the 70 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 3: worse since ninety one. It does appear to be the 71 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 3: worse since ninety one. But I think, you know, there 72 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 3: is some cause for optimism, inflation under control, some growth 73 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 3: coming our way. I know there's a whole bigger story 74 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 3: about actually reinventing their economy, transforming it, getting some productivity going, 75 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 3: and finding some real growth. But regardless of that, it 76 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 3: does look like twenty twenty five is going to look better, 77 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 3: So that story hasn't changed. 78 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 2: Do we not rely on these on GDP figures going forward? 79 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: Then? 80 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 2: How did they get the quarter two numbers so wrong? 81 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 2: And the seasonally adjusted thing that you're talking about, what's 82 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 2: going on there? 83 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 3: Well, from what I can see, and I'm doing a 84 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 3: lot of reading, there was a lot of COVID really 85 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 3: throughout all their sings that they're revised. They do a 86 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 3: revision of methodology in the third Every third quarter there's 87 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 3: a big revision of methodology and that's good practice. You 88 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,799 Speaker 3: want to make sure it's all good. But they've found 89 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 3: that there's seasonal there's seasonal adjustments that they do to 90 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 3: try and keep it all and tick. We're out, and 91 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 3: they've had to redo those quite substantially. It's kind of 92 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 3: the case that they've kind of like they know how 93 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 3: much the economy has grown, but how they are proportionate 94 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 3: across each quarter has been out of whack. And so 95 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 3: now you have the data for that middle of the 96 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:47,679 Speaker 3: year looking more like what people were seeing, and things 97 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 3: like the production of manufacturing statistics and some of that 98 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 3: more minuted data looked really grim and then so now 99 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 3: these GDP numbers match that. So they're sort of starting 100 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 3: to get it back in line, I hope, But it 101 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 3: does remind you that some of these things. First of all, 102 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 3: GDP is a very tough thing to measure. It's every 103 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:10,360 Speaker 3: single bit of action that happens in the economy, everything 104 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 3: we make, everything we do, everything we spend. So that's 105 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 3: always tough, and it's been particularly tough in the past 106 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 3: two or three years. One would hope that that we 107 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 3: can rely on them for the trend, but I would 108 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 3: always say there's a caveat on that initial number when 109 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,359 Speaker 3: it comes out, and be a bit wary of, you know, 110 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 3: worrying too much about technical recessions. We know that we're 111 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 3: in a you know, we know when we're in a downturn. 112 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 3: We know when things are going bad, and look at 113 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 3: look at measures like the jobs lost and the business 114 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 3: is closing down, all that sort of stuff. If you 115 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 3: want to see real hard data and what's happening in 116 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 3: the real world. 117 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 2: Just walk down the street in Main Street. You can 118 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 2: see it too, Liam, can't you? Thank you very much 119 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 2: for that run down lamb down news zelln Herald Business 120 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 2: editor at Large. 121 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 3: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to 122 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 3: news talks he'd be from four weekdays, or follow the 123 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 3: podcast on iHeartRadio.