WEBVTT - Overshoot Conference: What breaking 1.5°C means for climate action 0:00:05.240 --> 0:00:05.680 Kielda. 0:00:05.720 --> 0:00:08.879 I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 0:00:09.000 --> 0:00:16.640 daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. We're edging 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:21.119 closer to exceeding one point five degrees celsius of warming 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:26.080 globally and scientists will gather to understand the implications of 0:00:26.239 --> 0:00:30.480 missing our climate change targets. The world's best will descend 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:35.000 upon Austria this week for the first ever Overshoot conference. 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:39.040 It's while Winston Peters delivered a truth bomb at the 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:43.080 un recently singling out four countries for being the world's 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:47.839 largest emitters. So what happens if we don't meet our 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:52.519 climate targets? Today on the front Page, Victoria University climate 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:56.560 scientist Professor James Renwick is with us to delve into 0:00:56.640 --> 0:01:05.240 climate overshoot and why we should care about. First off, James, 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:09.440 can you tell us what climate overshoot actually means? 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:10.360 Sure? 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:11.280 So. 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:14.920 The Paris Agreement, which was drawn up in twenty fifteen, 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:18.120 said that the countries of the world would do what 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:21.600 they have to do to reduce emissions fast enough to 0:01:21.720 --> 0:01:25.720 stop at a global warming of well below two degrees 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:30.200 above pre industrial or but a mouthful, and that the 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:33.440 countries of the world would pursue efforts to stop at 0:01:33.440 --> 0:01:35.919 one and a half degrees of warming. So the Paris 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:38.880 Agreement ranges between one and a half and two degrees 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:44.480 of warming, and overshoot refers to the idea that the 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:47.120 countries of the world have not done enough and that 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:49.320 warming is going to exceed one and a half degrees 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:53.920 or maybe even two degrees. So the idea there as well, Yes, 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:57.240 all right, that could happen, but provided we can call 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:01.080 things off again fairly quickly, it may not be the 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:03.560 end of the world kind of thing. So it's all 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:07.920 about what is the actual trajectory that the Earth's line 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:11.399 in terms of temperature arise, and what can we do 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:15.799 about cooling things down again. US temperatures do get above 0:02:16.320 --> 0:02:20.120 the thresholds and the Paris Agreement. Now you'll be aware 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:23.440 probably that the bottom of the Paris Agreement one point 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:24.520 five degrees. 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:26.639 Has already been breached one year. 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:28.760 Last year was the first year more than one and 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:34.040 a half degrees above free industrial But that's not quite 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:35.960 the end of that story. You really need to say 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:39.639 ten years average of ten years above one and a 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:42.800 half before you could say for sure that yes, we've 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:46.160 broken through that limit, and we're not quite there yet. 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:48.720 We're at about one point three degrees in the ten 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:51.720 year average, but all our things are going we will 0:02:51.760 --> 0:02:52.480 be there by the. 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:53.480 End of this decade. 0:02:53.919 --> 0:02:55.200 So what more can be done? 0:02:55.600 --> 0:03:01.400 Oh well, everything, We're not doing anything. The thing that 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:05.440 needs to happen is we have to stop emitting greenhouse gases, 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:10.079 especially carbon dioxide. And the main way we emit carbon 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:15.000 dioxide is we burn fossil fuels, So burning coal, burning oil, 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:19.200 burning natural gas all release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:21.400 And we've been putting more and more and more of 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:24.560 this stuff into the air every year, with one or 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:29.160 two little blips than ever. Half of the total emissions 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:33.480 of greenhouse gases humans have managed to do since you know, 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:37.120 the seventeen hundreds have happened since nineteen ninety, so really, 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:40.800 you know, putting our foot on the gas literally, and 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:43.840 we're changing the climate faster and faster. In the thirty 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:47.640 years the work been talking about fixing this problem, they've 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:51.520 made it twice as bad and we're just accelerating in 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:55.520 the wrong direction. So the world's doing nothing apart from talking. 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:59.240 So it would be great to see a big rollout 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:02.280 of renewal energy and a big reduction in the burning 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:05.960 of coal and oil, especially lots of ebs and solar panels, 0:04:06.000 --> 0:04:09.160 all that kind of stuff is really what the world needs. 0:04:10.600 --> 0:04:13.960 And it's happening, you know in places China are leading 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:18.520 the world solar panels and win tair of once, but 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:21.360 they're also leading the world and building coal fire past 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:25.599 oceans such. Yeah, a bit of a double edged sword there. So, Yeah, 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:28.600 what we need is just a reduction and emissions across 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:31.520 the globe. And I guess that's been the theme of 0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:33.560 or that will be one of the themes of the 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:37.680 Overshirt Conference and certainly has been talked about at the 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:41.400 UN Climate a week in New York. 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:44.360 When do you think the world is going to get serious? 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:49.680 What a great question, because I mean, you've been in 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:52.400 this game for a long time, James, you're probably sick 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:55.480 of you know, warning, And I mean as soon as 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:57.920 everyone says, oh this is going to happen, that's going 0:04:57.960 --> 0:05:01.480 to happen, it happens, but nothing's done about it. 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:05.719 No, And I really don't have an answer to that question. 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:08.440 When is the world going to get serious? It should 0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:12.560 have happened thirty years ago, forty years ago even was possible. 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:15.800 It was already plenty of warning back in the nineteen eighties. 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:20.719 But the status quo has an awful lot of power 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:24.040 behind it. The fossil fuel industry is one of the 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:26.720 most profitable in history. You know, there's a lot of 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:28.919 power and many title and doing things the way we 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:32.240 have done them for the last two hundred years or so. 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:35.480 So governments are reluctant to really act, and I think, 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:40.440 you know, government's policymakers don't quite believe or they don't 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:41.280 feel it. 0:05:41.640 --> 0:05:43.440 You know, they might know the facts, but they don't 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:46.560 have the you know, the emotional response that you really 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:51.080 need before you take something important on board. So when 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:54.919 is this going to happen. I hope it's in the 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:59.400 next five years, but it's going to take some major 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:07.720 extreme events and some I guess well resourced, rich countries 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:10.719 and you know, maybe a whole lot of death and 0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:14.400 destruction before government's really taken on board that, oh gee, 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:18.360 this actually is important. It actually is affecting our economy 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:21.080 and our lifestyles and everything. So, you know, I don't 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:24.360 want to wish extremes and death and destruction on people, 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:28.839 but it doesn't seem as though anything else, any of 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:32.320 the science really tells the story, and so a lot 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:34.560 of people are trying to tell the stories in different 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:37.279 ways through the arts and so on, and maybe that's 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:41.520 making a difference. But the pace of change has been 0:06:41.560 --> 0:06:46.359 so slow it's been just impossible even see in the 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:51.200 last few decades that I really wonder when we'll get 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:54.200 onto it. I suppose the good news, you could say, 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:56.800 is that humans have all the power. You know, we 0:06:56.920 --> 0:06:59.840 are the one species doing this. We're releasing all the 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:03.760 in housecases into the atmosphere. Whenever we stop doing that, 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:06.560 we will stop climate change within a year or two. 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:09.720 This is now well known, so we'll always have all 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:14.120 the power. But it's really it really comes down to 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:16.160 when do we use how bad do we let things 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:18.800 get in the meantime, And that's the trade off. I 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:23.560 suppose that policy makers around the world think about if 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:25.880 they think about it at all, you know what about 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:29.760 short term profit versus long term sustainability. That doesn't take 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:34.080 much thinking about from my perspective. But if you're trying 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:37.400 to turn a buck this year, I suppose it does 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:40.119 take a bit of thinking about. And this year's buck 0:07:40.640 --> 0:07:42.040 just always seems to win. 0:07:43.160 --> 0:07:47.160 So yeah, So China recently pledged for the first time 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:51.960 to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions to seven to ten 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:55.640 percent below peak levels by twenty thirty five. This includes 0:07:55.680 --> 0:08:00.360 expanding wind and solar capacity, increasing non fossil fuel energy share, 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:05.000 and ramping up electric vehicle sales, but it still falls 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:07.560 short of the thirty percent of cuts that some observers 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:11.000 say are needed for that one point five degrees. What 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:18.600 does China's new pledge mean for global climate negotiations. 0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:21.200 Well, it is a step forward. It's great to see 0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:24.320 that China is actually pledging to actually reduce emissions, not 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:27.360 just the intensity of emissions or the things they've come 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:30.360 up with before. So yes, that's a step forward. That's great, 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:34.960 But as you've just said, it's it's a bit weak, 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:37.320 it's a bit slow. You know that there was a 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:40.319 report from the Untergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that came 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:44.280 out nearly ten years ago now twenty eighteen, on what 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:45.920 do we need to do to stop at one and 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:49.600 a half degrees of women And that document said fifty 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:54.120 percent reductions in emissions by twenty thirty and China's talking 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:56.640 about maybe ten percent by twenty thirty five. So it's 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.520 it's going in the right direction, but it's way slow. 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:05.040 China is the biggest committer globally, so if they did that, 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:08.560 it would still be a win. But we need every 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:10.760 other bigger money and smaller amount of for that matter, 0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:14.000 to do the same. And like I said before this, 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:18.720 there's not really any country that's really managing to do that. 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:21.800 The UK, yes, this one I can think of, has 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:25.600 reduced its submissions significantly. Well that's you could argue that's 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:28.400 by exporting those emissions. You know, all the manufacturing that 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:31.480 used to happen in Britain probably nowhattans in China and 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:35.960 other Asian countries. So the global effect has been well 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.200 pretty murdered, to put it mildly. 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:43.080 Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters recently made headlines at the 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:48.160 UN by stating that the world's four biggest emitters that's China, India, 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:51.959 Russia and the US bear the brunt of responsibility, comprising 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:56.120 about sixty percent of global emissions. He urged leaders to 0:09:56.360 --> 0:09:59.720 quote face the elephant in the room and describe the 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:04.079 situ as a battle we can't possibly win. It's been 0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:08.079 described as a truth bomb. How has that been received? 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:10.880 And first of I mean what was your first reaction 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:13.160 to seeing that, because it is a bit of a 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:16.439 different change in tax for Winston Peters. 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:20.880 Yes, indeed, and you could well or a truth bomb. 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:23.800 And he's quite right in the sense that those four 0:10:23.840 --> 0:10:28.079 countries are the biggest emitters in the world, and we 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:31.960 won't have solved the problem until those nations really get 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:36.800 on board and reduce their emissions substantially. But you know, 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:39.960 those countries account for sixty percent of global emissions, which 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:41.920 means that if you put all the other countries together 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:45.000 Supfairs in New Zealand, you get the other forty percent, 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:48.640 and there's nothing to stop the other countries of the 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:50.640 world doing what they need to do. And if we 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:53.720 could produce global emissions by forty percent while all of 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:57.520 those countries get into zero, fabulous. You know, that would 0:10:57.559 --> 0:11:01.160 be a great step forward, and maybe you would shame 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:05.680 the bigger metis into doing the same thing totally hope. Yeah, 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:08.600 I mean, I'm sort of sympathetic to what he's saying, 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:12.880 and he's quite right, but he's also kind of trying 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:15.640 to sidestep any responsibility in this country and in other 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:20.040 countries that only emit one percent of global emissions or less, 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:23.320 and every country has to play their part. We've got 0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:26.200 to get the zero global emissions of carbon dioxide and 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:32.400 that means zero country is still emitting CO two. So yep, okay, 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:34.839 And I'd love to see the big countries respond to 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:40.120 that appropriately, But it doesn't absolve us. And his comment 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:43.800 that it's a battle we can't win us absolutely wrong. 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:46.360 And like I said, we have all the power. 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.240 We are the ones emitting these greenhouse gases. We can 0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:53.320 stop whenever we like I wish it was saying that, 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:58.319 so we can absolutely win. We being the global community. 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:02.520 So that's not anyone country, even just China got zero missions. 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:05.439 That wouldn't fix it. It will be a stick love 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:09.160 step forward. But all countries have to act and all 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:12.760 countries can contribute to winning. We will definitely win if 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:13.200 we do this. 0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:22.920 Another unofficial stated in nineteen eighty nine that within a decade, 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:26.679 entire nations could be wiped off the map by global 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:31.600 warming not happening. You know, it used to be global cooling. 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:35.120 If you look back years ago, in the nineteen twenties 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:39.080 and the nineteen thirties, they said global cooling will kill 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:42.720 the world. We have to do something. Then they said 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:46.640 global warming will kill the world. But then it started 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:48.560 getting cooler, so now they could just call it a 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:52.439 climate change because that way they can't miss climate change, 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:56.520 because if it goes higher or lower, whatever the hell happens, 0:12:56.679 --> 0:13:02.120 is climate change. It's the greatest job ever perpetrated on 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:03.520 the world in my opinion. 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:09.600 Well, speaking of the Big Four, it's all while Donald 0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:14.120 Trump told the UN that climate change was and I quote, 0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:20.600 the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, what 0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:22.520 does the rest of the world and New Zealand I 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:26.960 suppose do when the US president doesn't play ball? 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:32.160 Oh boy, it's a good question. 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:34.600 And you know, Donald Trump's a bit of a special 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:38.640 cases and he says all sorts of crazy things, and 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:41.800 this is as crazy as anything else I've heard him 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:44.840 say recently. Of course, it's not a conjob. You know, 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:49.640 there's so much of so many mountains of scientific evenents 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:53.040 and understanding. You know, we've got the observations, we have 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.800 the understanding of the physics and all the rest of it. 0:13:55.880 --> 0:14:01.800 We have the models. What's happening. There's no rome for uncertainty, 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:04.840 and it was not it's definitely not a con job. 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:09.200 But when the president of the US is something like that. 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:13.840 It does, of course, it kind of gives license to 0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:17.160 people in other countries that are maybe uncertain about what 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:19.840 they should do, to say, oh, well, okay, the US 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:20.920 is treating it. 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:23.640 Like a joke, why don't we do the same. So 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:27.120 it's not good for the global conversation, of course. 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:31.400 But I really wonder these days how much Donald Trump, 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:34.240 you know, how much weight he carries in terms of 0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:39.840 these international conversations. He's sort of said so many strange 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:44.800 things and passed off the countries that I wonder whether 0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:47.360 the US is just being a bit sidelines and you know, 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:49.520 the world can carry on and do what it has 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.440 to do without the US joining in, and of course 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:54.680 that will hurt the US economy, and Trump won't be 0:14:54.800 --> 0:14:57.600 the president forever, so the US can get on board 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:01.040 at some stage. In the meantime, a a number of 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:04.200 you as states are doing what they need to do anyway, 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:07.320 reducing missions. It's not as though the federal government controls 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:08.960 what all of the states do. 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.640 So it's a bit of a mixed big It's not 0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:14.160 good globally to. 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:18.200 Have one of the world's most prominent political leaders saying 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:21.800 these things, But you know, I think most people take 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:24.320 Donald Trump's statements with the big grown or starved. 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:29.720 Actually, well, you've been a climate scientist for decades now, 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.520 I hope you don't mind me giving away your age. 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:36.480 What kind of conversation has the conversation shifted from when 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:40.280 you began looking into climate change to now. 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:46.320 Yes, those conversations have shifted, but they started happening at 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:48.840 the very least. You know, you do hear a lot 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:52.720 more conversation around action on climate change. And you know, 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:56.280 in this country, the policy landscapes quite different. Here's the 0:15:56.320 --> 0:16:01.480 Climate Change Commission, we have the Zero carbonac the government 0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:04.600 and principle at least has focused on taking action on 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:09.480 climate change. So that's that is quite a change over 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.320 the decades that I've been looking at all this. But 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:18.000 I think, well, it's a strange. It's maybe not unexpected 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:20.600 really when you think about it. But back in the day, 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:23.760 back last century, the end of last century, there was 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:26.080 a fair bit of hope around I guess, and the 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:28.400 idea that we have time and we can take action 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:31.000 and you know, we'll get on top of this problem. 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:36.080 So I had some faith that governments countries around the 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:39.840 world would actually step up and really start to reduce 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:43.520 their emissions over the time I've been working on the problem. 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:47.240 As time's gone on, that hasn't happened. And like I said, 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:50.760 actually the missions have continued to go up. It's become 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.160 sort of more and more desperate, I guess, And in 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:58.320 the science community there's a lot more desperation and worry, anxiety, 0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:03.160 anger even about the lack of action, because the problem 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:07.000 has become clearer and obviously more dangerous, but the action 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:11.520 still isn't there. So everything's become a bit more fractureous. 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:13.400 And I suppose this is what I'm saying. Maybe it's 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:18.400 not too surprising. As the climate changes, that puts stresses 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:22.960 on natural systems, that puts stresses on food security, water security, 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.920 even where people can live. You know, sea level rises 0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:32.959 are already affecting that. So things are becoming gradually harder. Life's 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:36.680 becoming a bit harder. And when that happens, people generally 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:40.080 turn onwards, you know, circle wagons and look after their 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:44.560 own and nationalism and you know, countries looking after themselves 0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:47.600 rather than cooperating, which is really what we need, has 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:52.320 become the prevalent story. And I think countries want to 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:54.439 protect their own economies. They don't want to be spending 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:58.960 money on what they might see is some possible problem 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:02.240 in fifty year's time or something like that. Of course, 0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:04.960 that is absolutely not what it is. It's happening right now. 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:11.000 So it's maybe to be expected that things have gone 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:15.960 the way that Donald Trump describes. And that's not something 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:19.600 I anticipated back in the nineteen nineties. I genuinely thought 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:22.800 countries would see what needed to be done and do it. 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:26.480 But you know, that's that's a very naive thought. 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:29.840 And it reminds me of a statement that Al Gore 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:33.960 made in his movie An Inconvenient Truth that twenty years ago, 0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:37.840 and he said, you know, he studied the climate system 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:39.760 and what was going on with greenhouse gases and all 0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:42.679 the rest of it, and he went to Congress in 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:44.360 the nineteen eighties and he said, oh, I just need 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:47.920 to tell Congress what's happening and they'll get onto it. 0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:50.600 And you know, that was forty years ago, and he 0:18:50.680 --> 0:18:54.200 did tell Congress and they listened and then went back 0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:58.160 to worrying about the economy. So it's yeah, human nature 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:01.880 is the big problem, you know, and when how much 0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:04.600 it will take to break through that kind of thinking. 0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:07.840 I dorn't no worries, mate, how much it'll take. It'll 0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:10.440 it will cost a lot of money, and I suspect 0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:12.480 a lot of lives before we see reelection. 0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:21.919 Thanks for joining us, James, sure thing. That's it for 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:25.200 this episode of the Front Page. You can read more 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:29.920 about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzadherld dot 0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:33.840 co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by Jane 0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:37.720 Ye and Richard Martin, who is also our editor. I'm 0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:42.000 Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or 0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:45.600 wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for 0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:47.480 another look behind the headlines.