1 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: Kielda. 2 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:08,879 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. We're edging 4 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 2: closer to exceeding one point five degrees celsius of warming 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 2: globally and scientists will gather to understand the implications of 6 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 2: missing our climate change targets. The world's best will descend 7 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 2: upon Austria this week for the first ever Overshoot conference. 8 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 2: It's while Winston Peters delivered a truth bomb at the 9 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: un recently singling out four countries for being the world's 10 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 2: largest emitters. So what happens if we don't meet our 11 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:52,519 Speaker 2: climate targets? Today on the front Page, Victoria University climate 12 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 2: scientist Professor James Renwick is with us to delve into 13 00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 2: climate overshoot and why we should care about. First off, James, 14 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 2: can you tell us what climate overshoot actually means? 15 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: Sure? 16 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 3: So. 17 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: The Paris Agreement, which was drawn up in twenty fifteen, 18 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: said that the countries of the world would do what 19 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 1: they have to do to reduce emissions fast enough to 20 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 1: stop at a global warming of well below two degrees 21 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: above pre industrial or but a mouthful, and that the 22 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: countries of the world would pursue efforts to stop at 23 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:35,919 Speaker 1: one and a half degrees of warming. So the Paris 24 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: Agreement ranges between one and a half and two degrees 25 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 1: of warming, and overshoot refers to the idea that the 26 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 1: countries of the world have not done enough and that 27 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: warming is going to exceed one and a half degrees 28 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: or maybe even two degrees. So the idea there as well, Yes, 29 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: all right, that could happen, but provided we can call 30 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: things off again fairly quickly, it may not be the 31 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 1: end of the world kind of thing. So it's all 32 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: about what is the actual trajectory that the Earth's line 33 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:11,399 Speaker 1: in terms of temperature arise, and what can we do 34 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:15,799 Speaker 1: about cooling things down again. US temperatures do get above 35 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: the thresholds and the Paris Agreement. Now you'll be aware 36 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: probably that the bottom of the Paris Agreement one point 37 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 1: five degrees. 38 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 3: Has already been breached one year. 39 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: Last year was the first year more than one and 40 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: a half degrees above free industrial But that's not quite 41 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: the end of that story. You really need to say 42 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 1: ten years average of ten years above one and a 43 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 1: half before you could say for sure that yes, we've 44 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: broken through that limit, and we're not quite there yet. 45 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 1: We're at about one point three degrees in the ten 46 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: year average, but all our things are going we will 47 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: be there by the. 48 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 3: End of this decade. 49 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 2: So what more can be done? 50 00:02:55,600 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 1: Oh well, everything, We're not doing anything. The thing that 51 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: needs to happen is we have to stop emitting greenhouse gases, 52 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 1: especially carbon dioxide. And the main way we emit carbon 53 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: dioxide is we burn fossil fuels, So burning coal, burning oil, 54 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: burning natural gas all release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. 55 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 1: And we've been putting more and more and more of 56 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: this stuff into the air every year, with one or 57 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: two little blips than ever. Half of the total emissions 58 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: of greenhouse gases humans have managed to do since you know, 59 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: the seventeen hundreds have happened since nineteen ninety, so really, 60 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: you know, putting our foot on the gas literally, and 61 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: we're changing the climate faster and faster. In the thirty 62 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 1: years the work been talking about fixing this problem, they've 63 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 1: made it twice as bad and we're just accelerating in 64 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: the wrong direction. So the world's doing nothing apart from talking. 65 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: So it would be great to see a big rollout 66 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: of renewal energy and a big reduction in the burning 67 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: of coal and oil, especially lots of ebs and solar panels, 68 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff is really what the world needs. 69 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: And it's happening, you know in places China are leading 70 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: the world solar panels and win tair of once, but 71 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 1: they're also leading the world and building coal fire past 72 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 1: oceans such. Yeah, a bit of a double edged sword there. So, Yeah, 73 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 1: what we need is just a reduction and emissions across 74 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: the globe. And I guess that's been the theme of 75 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 1: or that will be one of the themes of the 76 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: Overshirt Conference and certainly has been talked about at the 77 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: UN Climate a week in New York. 78 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 2: When do you think the world is going to get serious? 79 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 2: What a great question, because I mean, you've been in 80 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 2: this game for a long time, James, you're probably sick 81 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 2: of you know, warning, And I mean as soon as 82 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 2: everyone says, oh this is going to happen, that's going 83 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 2: to happen, it happens, but nothing's done about it. 84 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 1: No, And I really don't have an answer to that question. 85 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: When is the world going to get serious? It should 86 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: have happened thirty years ago, forty years ago even was possible. 87 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 1: It was already plenty of warning back in the nineteen eighties. 88 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 1: But the status quo has an awful lot of power 89 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 1: behind it. The fossil fuel industry is one of the 90 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 1: most profitable in history. You know, there's a lot of 91 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:28,919 Speaker 1: power and many title and doing things the way we 92 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: have done them for the last two hundred years or so. 93 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 4: So governments are reluctant to really act, and I think, 94 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 4: you know, government's policymakers don't quite believe or they don't 95 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 4: feel it. 96 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: You know, they might know the facts, but they don't 97 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: have the you know, the emotional response that you really 98 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 1: need before you take something important on board. So when 99 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,919 Speaker 1: is this going to happen. I hope it's in the 100 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: next five years, but it's going to take some major 101 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:07,720 Speaker 1: extreme events and some I guess well resourced, rich countries 102 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:10,719 Speaker 1: and you know, maybe a whole lot of death and 103 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 1: destruction before government's really taken on board that, oh gee, 104 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 1: this actually is important. It actually is affecting our economy 105 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: and our lifestyles and everything. So, you know, I don't 106 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 1: want to wish extremes and death and destruction on people, 107 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:28,839 Speaker 1: but it doesn't seem as though anything else, any of 108 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: the science really tells the story, and so a lot 109 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: of people are trying to tell the stories in different 110 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 1: ways through the arts and so on, and maybe that's 111 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: making a difference. But the pace of change has been 112 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 1: so slow it's been just impossible even see in the 113 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: last few decades that I really wonder when we'll get 114 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: onto it. I suppose the good news, you could say, 115 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 1: is that humans have all the power. You know, we 116 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 1: are the one species doing this. We're releasing all the 117 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 1: in housecases into the atmosphere. Whenever we stop doing that, 118 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: we will stop climate change within a year or two. 119 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: This is now well known, so we'll always have all 120 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: the power. But it's really it really comes down to 121 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: when do we use how bad do we let things 122 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 1: get in the meantime, And that's the trade off. I 123 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: suppose that policy makers around the world think about if 124 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 1: they think about it at all, you know what about 125 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: short term profit versus long term sustainability. That doesn't take 126 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: much thinking about from my perspective. But if you're trying 127 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: to turn a buck this year, I suppose it does 128 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,119 Speaker 1: take a bit of thinking about. And this year's buck 129 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: just always seems to win. 130 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 2: So yeah, So China recently pledged for the first time 131 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 2: to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions to seven to ten 132 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 2: percent below peak levels by twenty thirty five. This includes 133 00:07:55,680 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 2: expanding wind and solar capacity, increasing non fossil fuel energy share, 134 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 2: and ramping up electric vehicle sales, but it still falls 135 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 2: short of the thirty percent of cuts that some observers 136 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 2: say are needed for that one point five degrees. What 137 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 2: does China's new pledge mean for global climate negotiations. 138 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: Well, it is a step forward. It's great to see 139 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: that China is actually pledging to actually reduce emissions, not 140 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 1: just the intensity of emissions or the things they've come 141 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: up with before. So yes, that's a step forward. That's great, 142 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: But as you've just said, it's it's a bit weak, 143 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 1: it's a bit slow. You know that there was a 144 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:40,319 Speaker 1: report from the Untergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that came 145 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 1: out nearly ten years ago now twenty eighteen, on what 146 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: do we need to do to stop at one and 147 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: a half degrees of women And that document said fifty 148 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: percent reductions in emissions by twenty thirty and China's talking 149 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 1: about maybe ten percent by twenty thirty five. So it's 150 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: it's going in the right direction, but it's way slow. 151 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 1: China is the biggest committer globally, so if they did that, 152 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 1: it would still be a win. But we need every 153 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 1: other bigger money and smaller amount of for that matter, 154 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 1: to do the same. And like I said before this, 155 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: there's not really any country that's really managing to do that. 156 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: The UK, yes, this one I can think of, has 157 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: reduced its submissions significantly. Well that's you could argue that's 158 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 1: by exporting those emissions. You know, all the manufacturing that 159 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 1: used to happen in Britain probably nowhattans in China and 160 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 1: other Asian countries. So the global effect has been well 161 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 1: pretty murdered, to put it mildly. 162 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 2: Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters recently made headlines at the 163 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 2: UN by stating that the world's four biggest emitters that's China, India, 164 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:51,959 Speaker 2: Russia and the US bear the brunt of responsibility, comprising 165 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 2: about sixty percent of global emissions. He urged leaders to 166 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,720 Speaker 2: quote face the elephant in the room and describe the 167 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:04,079 Speaker 2: situ as a battle we can't possibly win. It's been 168 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:08,079 Speaker 2: described as a truth bomb. How has that been received? 169 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 2: And first of I mean what was your first reaction 170 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 2: to seeing that, because it is a bit of a 171 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 2: different change in tax for Winston Peters. 172 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: Yes, indeed, and you could well or a truth bomb. 173 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: And he's quite right in the sense that those four 174 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:28,079 Speaker 1: countries are the biggest emitters in the world, and we 175 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 1: won't have solved the problem until those nations really get 176 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 1: on board and reduce their emissions substantially. But you know, 177 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 1: those countries account for sixty percent of global emissions, which 178 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 1: means that if you put all the other countries together 179 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 1: Supfairs in New Zealand, you get the other forty percent, 180 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 1: and there's nothing to stop the other countries of the 181 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: world doing what they need to do. And if we 182 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: could produce global emissions by forty percent while all of 183 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 1: those countries get into zero, fabulous. You know, that would 184 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 1: be a great step forward, and maybe you would shame 185 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:05,680 Speaker 1: the bigger metis into doing the same thing totally hope. Yeah, 186 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sort of sympathetic to what he's saying, 187 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 1: and he's quite right, but he's also kind of trying 188 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: to sidestep any responsibility in this country and in other 189 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 1: countries that only emit one percent of global emissions or less, 190 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 1: and every country has to play their part. We've got 191 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 1: to get the zero global emissions of carbon dioxide and 192 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: that means zero country is still emitting CO two. So yep, okay, 193 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:34,839 Speaker 1: And I'd love to see the big countries respond to 194 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 1: that appropriately, But it doesn't absolve us. And his comment 195 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 1: that it's a battle we can't win us absolutely wrong. 196 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 3: And like I said, we have all the power. 197 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: We are the ones emitting these greenhouse gases. We can 198 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 1: stop whenever we like I wish it was saying that, 199 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:58,319 Speaker 1: so we can absolutely win. We being the global community. 200 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 1: So that's not anyone country, even just China got zero missions. 201 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,439 Speaker 1: That wouldn't fix it. It will be a stick love 202 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 1: step forward. But all countries have to act and all 203 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 1: countries can contribute to winning. We will definitely win if 204 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 1: we do this. 205 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 5: Another unofficial stated in nineteen eighty nine that within a decade, 206 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 5: entire nations could be wiped off the map by global 207 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 5: warming not happening. You know, it used to be global cooling. 208 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 5: If you look back years ago, in the nineteen twenties 209 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 5: and the nineteen thirties, they said global cooling will kill 210 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 5: the world. We have to do something. Then they said 211 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 5: global warming will kill the world. But then it started 212 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:48,560 Speaker 5: getting cooler, so now they could just call it a 213 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:52,439 Speaker 5: climate change because that way they can't miss climate change, 214 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 5: because if it goes higher or lower, whatever the hell happens, 215 00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 5: is climate change. It's the greatest job ever perpetrated on 216 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 5: the world in my opinion. 217 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 2: Well, speaking of the Big Four, it's all while Donald 218 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 2: Trump told the UN that climate change was and I quote, 219 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 2: the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, what 220 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 2: does the rest of the world and New Zealand I 221 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 2: suppose do when the US president doesn't play ball? 222 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 3: Oh boy, it's a good question. 223 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 1: And you know, Donald Trump's a bit of a special 224 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 1: cases and he says all sorts of crazy things, and 225 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 1: this is as crazy as anything else I've heard him 226 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 1: say recently. Of course, it's not a conjob. You know, 227 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: there's so much of so many mountains of scientific evenents 228 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 1: and understanding. You know, we've got the observations, we have 229 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 1: the understanding of the physics and all the rest of it. 230 00:13:55,880 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: We have the models. What's happening. There's no rome for uncertainty, 231 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 1: and it was not it's definitely not a con job. 232 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 1: But when the president of the US is something like that. 233 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 1: It does, of course, it kind of gives license to 234 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 1: people in other countries that are maybe uncertain about what 235 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 1: they should do, to say, oh, well, okay, the US 236 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: is treating it. 237 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 3: Like a joke, why don't we do the same. So 238 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 3: it's not good for the global conversation, of course. 239 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 1: But I really wonder these days how much Donald Trump, 240 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: you know, how much weight he carries in terms of 241 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: these international conversations. He's sort of said so many strange 242 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: things and passed off the countries that I wonder whether 243 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 1: the US is just being a bit sidelines and you know, 244 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 1: the world can carry on and do what it has 245 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: to do without the US joining in, and of course 246 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: that will hurt the US economy, and Trump won't be 247 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: the president forever, so the US can get on board 248 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: at some stage. In the meantime, a a number of 249 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: you as states are doing what they need to do anyway, 250 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: reducing missions. It's not as though the federal government controls 251 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 1: what all of the states do. 252 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 3: So it's a bit of a mixed big It's not 253 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 3: good globally to. 254 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 1: Have one of the world's most prominent political leaders saying 255 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 1: these things, But you know, I think most people take 256 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's statements with the big grown or starved. 257 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 2: Actually, well, you've been a climate scientist for decades now, 258 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 2: I hope you don't mind me giving away your age. 259 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 2: What kind of conversation has the conversation shifted from when 260 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 2: you began looking into climate change to now. 261 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: Yes, those conversations have shifted, but they started happening at 262 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: the very least. You know, you do hear a lot 263 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: more conversation around action on climate change. And you know, 264 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: in this country, the policy landscapes quite different. Here's the 265 00:15:56,320 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 1: Climate Change Commission, we have the Zero carbonac the government 266 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: and principle at least has focused on taking action on 267 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 1: climate change. So that's that is quite a change over 268 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: the decades that I've been looking at all this. But 269 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 1: I think, well, it's a strange. It's maybe not unexpected 270 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: really when you think about it. But back in the day, 271 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: back last century, the end of last century, there was 272 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 1: a fair bit of hope around I guess, and the 273 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 1: idea that we have time and we can take action 274 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: and you know, we'll get on top of this problem. 275 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 1: So I had some faith that governments countries around the 276 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 1: world would actually step up and really start to reduce 277 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: their emissions over the time I've been working on the problem. 278 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: As time's gone on, that hasn't happened. And like I said, 279 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: actually the missions have continued to go up. It's become 280 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 1: sort of more and more desperate, I guess, And in 281 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 1: the science community there's a lot more desperation and worry, anxiety, 282 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 1: anger even about the lack of action, because the problem 283 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 1: has become clearer and obviously more dangerous, but the action 284 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: still isn't there. So everything's become a bit more fractureous. 285 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 1: And I suppose this is what I'm saying. Maybe it's 286 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:18,400 Speaker 1: not too surprising. As the climate changes, that puts stresses 287 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:22,960 Speaker 1: on natural systems, that puts stresses on food security, water security, 288 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 1: even where people can live. You know, sea level rises 289 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:32,959 Speaker 1: are already affecting that. So things are becoming gradually harder. Life's 290 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 1: becoming a bit harder. And when that happens, people generally 291 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 1: turn onwards, you know, circle wagons and look after their 292 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: own and nationalism and you know, countries looking after themselves 293 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 1: rather than cooperating, which is really what we need, has 294 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: become the prevalent story. And I think countries want to 295 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,439 Speaker 1: protect their own economies. They don't want to be spending 296 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 1: money on what they might see is some possible problem 297 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 1: in fifty year's time or something like that. Of course, 298 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 1: that is absolutely not what it is. It's happening right now. 299 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 1: So it's maybe to be expected that things have gone 300 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:15,960 Speaker 1: the way that Donald Trump describes. And that's not something 301 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 1: I anticipated back in the nineteen nineties. I genuinely thought 302 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 1: countries would see what needed to be done and do it. 303 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 3: But you know, that's that's a very naive thought. 304 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 1: And it reminds me of a statement that Al Gore 305 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 1: made in his movie An Inconvenient Truth that twenty years ago, 306 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: and he said, you know, he studied the climate system 307 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: and what was going on with greenhouse gases and all 308 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 1: the rest of it, and he went to Congress in 309 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:44,360 Speaker 1: the nineteen eighties and he said, oh, I just need 310 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,920 Speaker 1: to tell Congress what's happening and they'll get onto it. 311 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: And you know, that was forty years ago, and he 312 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,200 Speaker 1: did tell Congress and they listened and then went back 313 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:58,160 Speaker 1: to worrying about the economy. So it's yeah, human nature 314 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 1: is the big problem, you know, and when how much 315 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: it will take to break through that kind of thinking. 316 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 1: I dorn't no worries, mate, how much it'll take. It'll 317 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 1: it will cost a lot of money, and I suspect 318 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: a lot of lives before we see reelection. 319 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:21,919 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, James, sure thing. That's it for 320 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 2: this episode of the Front Page. You can read more 321 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 2: about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzadherld dot 322 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 2: co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by Jane 323 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 2: Ye and Richard Martin, who is also our editor. I'm 324 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 2: Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or 325 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for 326 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 2: another look behind the headlines.