1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: Right now, though, get a load of this Auckland. There's 2 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:06,040 Speaker 1: a ten percent chance of a volcanic eruption in Auckland 3 00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: in the next fifty years. 4 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 2: Now. 5 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,240 Speaker 1: This is according to disaster scenarios drawn up by emergency management, 6 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: and the potential cost of this does if she blows 7 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: is sixty five billion dollars now. Doctor Finn Ilsley Kemp 8 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: is a senior research fellow at Victoria University specializing in 9 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:24,600 Speaker 1: earthquakes and volcanoes. Is with us now, hoy Finn, Hey, 10 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 1: I mean ten percent in the real world is not 11 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: a lot. But what about when we're dealing with scenarios 12 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: like this, is it? 13 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 2: Well, ten percent is still very unlikely, and there is 14 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 2: still quite a lot of uncertainty about that number. The 15 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 2: way we've got that number is by looking at the 16 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:42,559 Speaker 2: eruptions that have happened in the past in Auckland and 17 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 2: looking at the date, like how old they were, and 18 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 2: then getting a kind of average of roughly how often 19 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 2: these things have happened, and we think roughly we get 20 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 2: about one eruption every five hundred years. 21 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: Okay, so I can probably relax like it's not going 22 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: to happen while I'm alive. Chances are right. 23 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: Well, it's unlike, but there will be an eruption from 24 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 2: Auckland at some point in the future. So it is worthwhile, 25 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 2: you know, considering it and preparing it, and especially for 26 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 2: emergency management, getting prepared for that scenario. 27 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:13,759 Speaker 1: And how do you prepare for a volcanic eruption. 28 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 2: It's difficult, and it's especially difficult in Auckland, it has 29 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 2: to be said in Auckland well, because the volcanic field, 30 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:29,839 Speaker 2: the Auckland volcanic field, basically sits under the entire city. 31 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 2: And what's difficult about the volcanic field in Auckland is 32 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 2: that it seems to be relatively random where in that 33 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 2: area the eruption comes up. It's not like we are 34 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 2: pay who where the eruptions are coming from the same 35 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 2: place all the time, and so that makes it very 36 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 2: hard to predict for the future. But even still, when 37 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 2: we do think we will get a warning when it 38 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 2: is on the way, because this magma has to come 39 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 2: from quite deep and so we should be able to 40 00:01:58,240 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 2: see it on its way. But when it's on the moon, 41 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 2: if it doesn't hang around, it's probably going to take 42 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 2: maybe days to weeks to get from deep up to 43 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 2: the surface to interruption, so it's quite ahead of time. 44 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: No, there's heaps of time we can get out of 45 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:15,239 Speaker 1: the city. So we'll have at least days worth of warning. 46 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, we will' that's I mean, I like 47 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 2: your optimism. I it's a big challenge to evacuate the 48 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 2: entire city of Auckland in days. 49 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: You see public holiday weekends. We can get out of 50 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: here real quick. 51 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe everyone can go up north. 52 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, now, okay, listen, if it was to happen because 53 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: producer ants who fancies himself as something of a scientist, 54 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: like a pseudo scientist, like a like a part time scientist, 55 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 1: he reckons it blows at the softest part in the ground, 56 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: So that would be out at sea, would it. 57 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:52,359 Speaker 2: No, we don't see particular evidence for that. There seems 58 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 2: to be basically random. The only thing we can kind 59 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 2: of say is they don't seem to erupt from the 60 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,799 Speaker 2: same place more than once most often, So where there 61 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 2: is currently a cone, we can say it's unlikely to 62 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 2: come from that exact spot. But really we just have 63 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 2: to cast the net wide and say it could come 64 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 2: basically anywhere under the entire city. 65 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: Finn doesn't make a new cone. So will it come 66 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: from a flat piece and suddenly we'll have a cone there? 67 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, probably that's what we think. 68 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: And so there's no I mean, you can't give me 69 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 1: a piece of advice as to like if it's happening 70 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: here north or south. It's but random, isn't it? 71 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 2: It will be random. And what's difficult is that as 72 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 2: it's coming up, we'll probably see earthquakes. That will be 73 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 2: the sign that we can see the magma on the move. 74 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 2: But then it doesn't necessarily come straight up. It can 75 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 2: kind of move around in the crust a bit. Okay, 76 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 2: and so really we would take the approach of evacuating 77 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 2: everyone to be safe. 78 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: Okay, Hey, thanks for that. Fin, that's fascinating. That's doctor 79 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: Finillesley kimp Seeing, a research fellow, Victoria University School of Geography. 80 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: How good is it? We'll get a few days warning, 81 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 1: decide where you want to. You might just be able 82 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: to fly out, Just fly out. Someone can put like Fiji, 83 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm just gonna hunk it down and feed 84 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: you while that's happening. 85 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 2: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive listen live to 86 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 87 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio