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Speaker 1: The Rural Report on hither do for see Alan Drive.

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Speaker 2: Jamie mckaie, host of the Countries with Me. Now, hey,

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Speaker 2: Jamie listen put this in context for me. How big

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Speaker 2: a deal is it that Balance is wanting to shut

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Speaker 2: up shop for four months?

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Speaker 1: A huge, A huge deal. Look, I've only just had

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Speaker 1: a quick flick of the story and I think has

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Speaker 1: there been an update they are definitely closing for four months?

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Speaker 1: Is that they spoke to Calvin Wickham.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so what he says is they haven't got a contract.

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Speaker 2: It ends at the end of September. If they can

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Speaker 2: get a replacement contract, they'll keep going. But if they can't,

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Speaker 2: and that's most likely, then they shut up for four months.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Well that's a disaster for New Zealand agriculture because

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Speaker 1: something I'm trying to remember the stat off the top

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Speaker 1: of my head, something like fifty percent of the world's

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Speaker 1: food is produced from nitrogenous fertilizers or with the help

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Speaker 1: of nitrogenous fertilizers. So it's huge And when we're trying

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Speaker 1: to double our exports and get ourselves out of the

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Speaker 1: economic hole where and we need and farmers need every

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Speaker 1: to help they can get so shutting up the production

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Speaker 1: at Capuni because some of the other urea I think

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Speaker 1: is important. That's the stuff we make here at home

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Speaker 1: with our own natural gas is a disaster. And all

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Speaker 1: that does here there is just reinforce the absolute folly

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Speaker 1: of Chisinda's oil and gas research fan and twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 1: what an idiotic move. The chickens are really coming home

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Speaker 1: to roost on that one.

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Speaker 2: Give me a bit of context here again, right, So

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Speaker 2: at the moment, what we've got is we've got an

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Speaker 2: export lead recovery if the farmer is pulling us out

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Speaker 2: of the situation, this recession that we're in. But now

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Speaker 2: we've got Trump's tariffs coming at US fifteen percent on

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Speaker 2: exports that go to the US. A lot of that

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Speaker 2: will be red meat. And then you've also got the

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Speaker 2: fact that we now have to potentially import all this

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Speaker 2: uria and this fertilizers, so that's going to add costs.

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Speaker 2: So is our export lead recovery strong enough to withstand

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Speaker 2: these knocks coming at them?

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Speaker 1: Well, you can bet one thing that, regardless of whether

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Speaker 1: they get their natural gas supply or not, Balance and

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Speaker 1: Ravens down the other big fertilizer producer in this country

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Speaker 1: or competitor. The price of nitrogen fertilizers is going to

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Speaker 1: go up. The price of fertilizers has gone up, I

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Speaker 1: think in the Rabobank August outlook that came out today

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Speaker 1: something like ureas already up by twelve percent month on

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Speaker 1: month from July so or from June to July. So. Look,

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Speaker 1: it's going to put the export lead recovery under threat.

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Speaker 1: It's just going to make it more expensive for farmers

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Speaker 1: to grow grass and to get and to produce milk

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Speaker 1: and to produce meat.

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Speaker 2: Hey, that's that foot and mouth vaccine out of New

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Speaker 2: South Wales. It a big deal.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think so. This is of course using let

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Speaker 1: me get my my terminology right here, Heather. It's using

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Speaker 1: the help me out here, the same stuff that we

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Speaker 1: did with the COVID vaccine. Yeah, mRNA, sorry about that.

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Speaker 1: It's the same sort of technology. Interestingly, it's been developed

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Speaker 1: in Australia, but they had to test it in Germany

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Speaker 1: on cow's tested over there. It's going to be good

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Speaker 1: news because at the moment you can't you can't vaccinate

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Speaker 1: in advance. But this sort of thing is supposedly when

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Speaker 1: we get when and if we get an outbreak, and

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Speaker 1: Heaven help us if we do, the price of the

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Speaker 1: urea will be the least of our problems. If we

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Speaker 1: get foot and mouth here, it's last one to leave.

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Speaker 1: Turn the lights out. But they've got very good results

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Speaker 1: on this one. Cattle vaccinated cattle in these German based trials,

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Speaker 1: when exposed to the disease, did not share the virus.

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Speaker 1: And that's one of the big problems with foot and

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Speaker 1: mouth disease. It's so highly contagious. And Australia's quoting eighty

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Speaker 1: billion dollars if foot and mouth broke out in Australia,

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Speaker 1: So I would say you could probably maybe half that

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Speaker 1: or even a week bit more for US forty or

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Speaker 1: fifty billion, and that would just be off the top

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Speaker 1: of my head. So you can imagine how that would

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Speaker 1: go down in New Zealand. We would literally if we

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Speaker 1: got foot and mouth here, we could go broke as

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Speaker 1: a nation. All right.

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Speaker 2: So just a bundle of happy, happy, happy good news

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Speaker 2: for news tonight, jan Thank you so much, enjoying evening,

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Speaker 2: Jamie McKay, Host of the Country.

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Speaker 1: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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