1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,239 Speaker 1: Now some good news for retailers today. Electronic card spending 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:06,439 Speaker 1: was up in December compared to November. This is electronic 3 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: The total value of electronic card spending roses seasonally adjusted 4 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: one point five percent. I mean, spending is now back 5 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: to levels last seen in November twenty twenty three. And 6 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 1: of course Infmetrics principal economist Brad Olsen looks over this 7 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 1: stuff that he joins in our hell of Brad. Good 8 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: afternoon and a happy new year. Because this is the 9 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: first time we've spoken. You've looked at the data. What 10 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,159 Speaker 1: does it say? Yeah, you're right. 11 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 2: I mean, we have seen effectively a bit of a 12 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 2: stronger end to the year coming through when we look 13 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 2: at core retail sales, so stripping out some of the 14 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,519 Speaker 2: volatility that we often see in the numbers, and on 15 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 2: a seasonally adjusted basis, that increased one point eight percent. 16 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 2: That was the that's I think five months now in 17 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 2: a row. We have seen it pick up from a 18 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 2: low point in July. So that's certainly helping that idea 19 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 2: that we are seeing those greener shoots coming through in 20 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 2: the economy. I think important still to recognized that compared 21 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 2: to a year ago, spending was still lower, and of 22 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 2: course we've had higher inflation over the last couple of years, 23 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 2: we've seen population growth and so you know, spending per 24 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 2: person and the amount of goods being taken out of 25 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 2: store still isn't great, but it's a continued sort of 26 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 2: shift in trend when it comes to spending, and that's 27 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 2: certainly giving us a bit more optimism as we head 28 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 2: into this year. 29 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 1: That's good thinking that it shows that we are still 30 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 1: going into stores, but when we go into stores, we 31 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: spend less each. 32 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 2: That's very much true. Yeah, but you're totally right there 33 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 2: that spending per transaction has come down, and we have 34 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 2: got some data from throughout twenty twenty four that suggests 35 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 2: that there's sort of two things going on there. One, 36 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 2: people are discount hunting a little bit more. They're definitely 37 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 2: looking for a bargain, and that's of course driving down 38 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 2: sort of per transaction spend. But it's also that people 39 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 2: aren't spending as much on some of those bigger, higher 40 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 2: value items, and in particular you look at the likes 41 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 2: of furniture and you know, electronics and similar, people are 42 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 2: instead spending on the smaller end of the spectrum because 43 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 2: that's what they can afford at the moment, so that's 44 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 2: dropped things back as well. It was interesting looking across 45 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 2: the type of spending two that the likes of there 46 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 2: has been a bit of an increase in that bigger 47 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 2: end of town, the durable items. But as well as 48 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 2: that sort of still some trends that are showing that 49 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 2: compared to where we were middle of last year, the 50 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 2: likes of hospitality spending has also increased to touch. So look, 51 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 2: we're not there. This is not sort of you know, 52 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 2: the economic champagne corks have popped, but again just that 53 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 2: sort of feeling that we're starting to head more in 54 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:35,239 Speaker 2: the right direction. 55 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: Well, it's still nine point two three billion dollars and 56 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: there are still money and cash flow as king. But 57 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 1: here's the thing we're talking about December. December was Christmas time, 58 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: So couldn't we have expected an even greater increase because 59 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:47,359 Speaker 1: of Christmas? 60 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 2: We do have the stats that have taken that into accounts. 61 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 2: So because we seasonally just do we take out the 62 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 2: fact that yet December is always big relative to normal. 63 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 2: Even then, it looks like there were parts of the 64 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 2: sort of Christmas period that were a bit better than normal. 65 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 2: We had Worldline reporting that suggested that spending at the 66 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 2: start of December was above what we saw in December 67 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 2: twenty twenty three. In that lead up to last into 68 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 2: the previous Christmas. That got a little bit more challenging 69 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 2: through the middle of the Christmas period, just because of 70 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 2: course everyone's sort of going in and had been spending. 71 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 2: There weren't quite as many deals on offer, and so 72 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 2: a few people look like they sort of saved a 73 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,399 Speaker 2: bit of their cash, didn't spend it before Christmas came 74 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 2: out with a resurgence on Boxing Day, when we saw 75 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,639 Speaker 2: a thirteen percent increase in spending on Boxing Day year 76 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 2: on yet because people were bargain hunting. So it looks 77 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 2: like through the month of December they have sort of 78 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 2: been a few hot on a few cold patches, but 79 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 2: on the whole, still not a bad result. And I 80 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 2: think you noted that look that effectively that was last month. 81 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 2: We're now twenty one days into January. We're not expecting 82 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 2: that we'll see big, big boosts each and every month, 83 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 2: but as more people start to refix onto those lower 84 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 2: mortgage rates, they'll have a bit more cash to spend. 85 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 2: They're not going to go and blow it immediately on expending, 86 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 2: but they'll do a little bit more here and there. 87 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: Of course, inflation figures out tomorrow. We're talking to Paul 88 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: Bloxham about it, and just in about ten minutes time, 89 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: you want to just float us a number that you 90 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: might think. 91 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 2: Our pick is two point zero percent. We're one of 92 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 2: the lowest, I think the lowest of the domestic forecasts. 93 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 2: So we're thinking that inflation comes in that little bit softer. 94 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 2: But I think almost more importantly, we're looking and thinking 95 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 2: about the signals that have already been coming through for 96 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 2: what's next. We've got that, of course lower dollar, so 97 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 2: in the sort of fear or the worry about important 98 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 2: inflation still front of mine for us. 99 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: Very good stef and I thank you for your time, 100 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 1: Brad Olsen, and we're into the countryside next with JB. Mackay. 101 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,239 Speaker 1: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive. 102 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,840 Speaker 2: Listen live to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, 103 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 2: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.