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Speaker 1: So I fixed my entire mortgage in three weeks time.

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Speaker 1: I had one that was coming off like an eighteen

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Speaker 1: month thing, one that was coming off a couple of

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Speaker 1: years or whatever. The whole thing gets refixed in three

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Speaker 1: weeks time, And so I find myself with the curious

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Speaker 1: kind of conundrum that I think most of us with

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Speaker 1: bog standard family home mortgages could not have imagined at

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Speaker 1: any point in the last few years. At two o'clock,

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Speaker 1: I waited for the email to land from the Monetary

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Speaker 1: Policy Committee. I speed read the Reserve Bank statement and

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Speaker 1: found myself left with a simple question. Instead of fixing

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Speaker 1: my mortgage at the end of this month, am I

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Speaker 1: better to roll the dice float for four or five

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Speaker 1: weeks and hold out for another cut in November? Fifty

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Speaker 1: basis points is a meaningful cut. So I did back

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Speaker 1: of the envelope sums. If you've got a four hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars mortgage and you're coming off, say a seven

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Speaker 1: point two onto the market leading five point seven being

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Speaker 1: advertised for a one year mortgage today, that is a

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Speaker 1: difference five hundred bucks a month in your back pocket.

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Speaker 1: And what's clear from the Reserve Bank's comments is that,

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Speaker 1: like it was on the way up, the cutting cycle

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Speaker 1: is still likely to have disproportioned impacts depending on different circumstances.

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Speaker 1: As the ocr comes down, our economy is growing, international

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Speaker 1: growth is slowing in the Middle East conflict has the

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Speaker 1: potential to cause a global oil shock, And with an

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Speaker 1: unemployment rate that lags the cash rate cycle, we could

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Speaker 1: still add the best part of one hundred basis points

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Speaker 1: maybe to our unemployment rate. It's at four point six

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Speaker 1: right now, Treasury and the Reserve Bank thought would be

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Speaker 1: well above five come the middle of next year. The

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank might be cutting faster than they anticipated just

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Speaker 1: a few months ago, but it certainly won't come nearly

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Speaker 1: fast enough for many thousands of New Zealanders who are

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Speaker 1: likely going to lose their jobs over the next few months.

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Speaker 1: The NPS in November is the last cash rate decision

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Speaker 1: for twenty twenty four and the last for the best

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Speaker 1: part of three months. My period for the pick for

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Speaker 1: the time, My pick for the period between now and

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Speaker 1: then is that calls for more significant cuts, maybe even

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Speaker 1: to something akin to the neutral cash rate, will only

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Speaker 1: continue to intensify. Our economy might have a taste of

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Speaker 1: relief but it is crying out for so so much more.

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Speaker 1: For more from Hither duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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Speaker 1: news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow

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Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio