1 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Hielda. 2 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. At eleven 4 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: fifty nine pm on March twenty fifth, twenty twenty, New 5 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 2: Zealand entered its first Level four COVID nineteen lockdown. To many, 6 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 2: that moment may feel like it happened just yesterday, while 7 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: others are glad it's firmly in the past. Whatever your 8 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 2: feelings are about New Zealand's response to the COVID pandemic, 9 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 2: that first lockdown was a life altering event for many 10 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 2: of us. 11 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: Five years on. 12 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 2: Did it change us for the better? Or did it 13 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 2: kickstart something else? 14 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: Entirely? 15 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 2: University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker became a household name 16 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:58,279 Speaker 2: overnight for his commentary during the pandemic. He joins us 17 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 2: today on the Front Page to look back at the 18 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 2: start of the pandemic and forward towards potentially the next one. So, Michael, 19 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,479 Speaker 2: it's been five years since the first lockdown started. 20 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: Can you believe it's been that long? 21 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 3: Some days it seems longer, some days it seems like yesterday. 22 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:23,399 Speaker 2: I mean, I feel like I know what your answer 23 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:25,559 Speaker 2: will be already. But do you think that a call 24 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 2: for a nationwide lockdown was the right one? 25 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 3: Yes. But one of the things about lockdown is that 26 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 3: the term is used very differently if you're trying to 27 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 3: stamp out the virus, if you're going for elimination, versus 28 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 3: how the term was used in most countries that were 29 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 3: not trying to get rid of the virus. They were 30 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 3: just suppressing it to stop it overwhelming the system. And 31 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 3: that's how old influenza plan, which is about flattening the 32 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 3: curve and trying not to overwhelm the health system, it 33 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 3: took I think a radical approach and said we want 34 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 3: to get rid of the virus entirely. And that is 35 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 3: a very different use of lockdown because it's for a 36 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 3: much shorter period. I think with lockdowns we've got a 37 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 3: real problem with the terminology and that in much of 38 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 3: the world they were used to flatten the curve, and 39 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 3: that's the old approach to influenza in our pandemic plan, 40 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 3: whereas in New Zealand we had a much more radical approach, 41 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 3: which was to eliminate the virus entirely. We went alone. 42 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 3: I mean China had led the way and then countries 43 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 3: like Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and actually quite a few countries 44 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 3: in Southeast Asia adopted the same approach and in that 45 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:38,519 Speaker 3: situation using lockdowns hopefully for a short period of time 46 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 3: to stamp out the virus and then you can go 47 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 3: back to life as usual. 48 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 2: Do you think if we had our time again, we 49 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 2: would take the same approach. 50 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,359 Speaker 3: I think so, and for good reason. I mean, we've 51 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 3: had the raw Commission of Inquiry into the COVID response 52 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 3: that produced a very large, comprehensive report that was released 53 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 3: in November last year, and they concluded that this was 54 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 3: the optimal approach. We've also done a lot of research 55 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 3: on this, comparing countries that took elimination approaches with those 56 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 3: that use suppression and mitigation, which is a reduced level 57 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 3: of control, and the outcomes were so much better for 58 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 3: countries that took elimination. I think it should be the 59 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 3: default choice in future. Ever pandemic has sufficient severity, and 60 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 3: we're talking about with COVID nineteen a case fatality risk 61 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,959 Speaker 3: of getting up towards one percent. Initially before we had vaccines, 62 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 3: and if you think back to nineteen well none of 63 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 3: us can think back to nineteen eighteen. But we can 64 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 3: look at that pandemic, which was the worst natural disaster 65 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 3: in our history, and that flu pandemic came through and 66 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 3: it killed about one percent of the useualm population in 67 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 3: just six weeks, So that was about nine thousand people died, 68 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 3: and so we know that that level of impact is 69 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 3: totally unacceptable. So if we had a pandemic that was 70 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 3: coming at us that we thought might be as severe 71 00:03:57,840 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 3: as that, I think everyone would want us to share 72 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 3: our borders until we knew what we were dealing with 73 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 3: and can work out how to manage it. So I 74 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 3: think that's a huge lesson we have learned, and I 75 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 3: think it's now going to be built into I think 76 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 3: our pandemic planning. 77 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 2: The one PM press conferences, they were such a key 78 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:16,919 Speaker 2: part of daily life for close to two years for 79 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 2: the majority of the country. It was the only way 80 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 2: of knowing how many cases there were on any given day. 81 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 2: Now most of us wouldn't have a clue how many 82 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 2: cases there were last week, or deaths or hospitalizations or 83 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 2: anything like that. So where are things at currently with COVID? Michael, 84 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 2: How serious is of a threat is it? 85 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:39,720 Speaker 3: Well, we've recently looked at the last five years and 86 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 3: we're COVID as now and it's still our most important 87 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 3: single infectures to these I mean, last year it put 88 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 3: nine thousand people in hospital, it killed around six hundred 89 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 3: and sixty people, and also it caused a large number 90 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 3: of cases long COVID. We think somewhere around six to 91 00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 3: seven percent of the population and now living with longe COVID, 92 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 3: which has a huge economic cost, perhaps around two billion 93 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 3: dollars a year. So it's certainly a major health problem. 94 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 3: But of course people don't want to think about it. 95 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 3: They want to imagine they've moved on from COVID, and 96 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 3: many ways we have. We don't need an emergency response, 97 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 3: of course to COVID nineteen, but we still need to 98 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 3: prevent it and manage it. 99 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 4: Over the past few weeks, the world has changed, and 100 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 4: it has changed very quickly. In February, it would have 101 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 4: seemed unimaginable to close New Zealand's borders to the world, 102 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 4: and now it has been an obvious step as we 103 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 4: fight COVID nineteen. This is because we are experiencing an 104 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 4: unprecedented event, a global pandemic that in New Zealand we 105 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 4: have moved to fight by going hard and going early. 106 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 2: Five years on social distancing. My q QR codes everywhere 107 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:05,040 Speaker 2: you go, vaccine mandates, rushing to buy toilet paper, and 108 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:07,720 Speaker 2: hunting for teddy bears all feels. 109 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: Just like relics. 110 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 3: That's right. 111 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, If people have adopted any lessons from that time 112 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 2: in lockdown, what would you hope those were? 113 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:21,040 Speaker 3: Well, one of the big lessons is around how viruses 114 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:25,360 Speaker 3: get transmitted, and prior to COVID, I think the conventional 115 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 3: wisdom was they were transmitted in droplets which have a 116 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 3: range of up to about two meters, or from touching 117 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 3: surfaces contaminating them. That's called fomite transmission. And the thing 118 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 3: we learned from COVID nineteen is something we should have 119 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 3: known for a long time, is that actually aerosols are 120 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 3: really important. These these very fine droplet nuclei that we 121 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 3: breathe out and cough out, and they can linger in 122 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 3: the air for long periods, and they can also waft 123 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 3: over great distances. And one of the benefits of the 124 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 3: really good science that we had during this period was 125 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 3: it just identified the fact that this was really important. 126 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 3: So this means designing our indoor environments differently improving ventilation, 127 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 3: thinking more about controlling infictions and hospitals and wearing masks 128 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 3: and situations where the ventilation is very poor, like public transport. 129 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 3: So I think it's one of the main lessons at 130 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 3: the medical or epidemiological level. I think another one, of course, 131 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 3: is just how effective vaccines can be. I mean, they 132 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 3: really did transform the environment once we could vaccinate, and 133 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 3: unfortunately we were able to vaccinate at a high level before 134 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 3: we got infected with this virus, and that gave us 135 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 3: extremely low mortality from this infection compared with most countries. 136 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,679 Speaker 2: The first part of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into 137 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 2: COVID came out last December, and I'll read out one 138 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 2: quote from it to you. Contentious public health measures like 139 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 2: vaccine mandates wore away at what had initially been a 140 00:07:56,440 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 2: united wall of public support for the pandemic response. 141 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 1: Would you agree with that. 142 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 3: I think that there was some overuse of mandates, and 143 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 3: I think they were well intentioned. One of the effects 144 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 3: of putting pressure on people we'd some people would say 145 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 3: nudging them to get vaccinated, but in fact it was 146 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 3: stronger than a nudge, was that we did achieve very 147 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 3: high vaccine coverage, but I think we did pay a 148 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 3: price in terms of cohesion and trust in what we 149 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 3: were doing, and I think I hope that we would 150 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 3: do things differently next time, if there was a next time, 151 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 3: which is very likely. 152 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 2: When did you first notice the mood starting to turn? 153 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 2: Because we were so united there for probably the first 154 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 2: year of this and then things really started to shift. 155 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 3: Hey, yes, So I think midway through year two there 156 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 3: were a whole lot of pressures building up. I mean, 157 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 3: there were pressures around obviously vaccination, but I think one 158 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 3: of the other pressures was just New Zealanders wanted to 159 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:56,679 Speaker 3: return to New Zealand more easily, and we realized that 160 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 3: the quarantine system was absolutely capacity. It couldn't take any 161 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 3: more people. So that created rationing and I think quite 162 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 3: a bit of ill will towards the response. So that's 163 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 3: the problem. And I think one of the great difficulties 164 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 3: with elimination is exiting for this strategy, because it is 165 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 3: quite binary. You know, you've got no transmission or you've 166 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 3: got ongoing transmission. You know, there isn't really a middle ground, 167 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 3: and I think that was a difficulty and you could 168 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 3: see by the end of year two we had reached 169 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 3: a really critical point and obviously it progressed to the 170 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 3: parliamentary occupation and very visible protests. So that was the 171 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:38,199 Speaker 3: very difficult time for the government working on this exit strategy. 172 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 2: Now, just from doing this episode and speaking with you, Michael, 173 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 2: I know that I'm going to receive emails about this. 174 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 2: People are still angry about COVID. There are it's misinformation 175 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 2: disinformation online. Still how much do you get even five 176 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 2: years on now, Well it. 177 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 3: Has decreased a lot, But basically every time I write 178 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 3: something or are on COVID or talk to the media 179 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:20,960 Speaker 3: or talk about vaccination, I will get very unpleasant emails. 180 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 3: And there are still people. Most of the people I meet, 181 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 3: you know, out socially are very positive about New Zealm response, 182 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 3: and I think, thank me and others who contributed to that. 183 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 3: But then you occasionally meet someone who is mainly about 184 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 3: vaccination who is very verbally abusive and unpleasant. You know. 185 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 3: I've had a few encounters where I felt physically threatened, 186 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 3: but I haven't been assaulted, And I think that overall 187 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 3: the level of risk is actually much higher for other 188 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 3: groups who have to interact with the public during this period. 189 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:56,079 Speaker 3: I think journalists I know did get assaulted, politicians got assaulted, 190 00:10:56,200 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 3: and I think frontline staffs, police and people were emergency departments. 191 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 3: So I think it has been very negative, some of 192 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 3: the disinformation and attacks. But I've got quite used to 193 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 3: them now, and I know in many ways it's not 194 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:14,679 Speaker 3: really personal. It's just that people are getting so bombarded 195 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:18,359 Speaker 3: with so much disinformation now, I think they are quite confused. 196 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 2: I think people in your position probably hoped that the 197 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 2: pandemic would have united US and prepared us for the 198 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 2: next one. But instead we've got the likes of the 199 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 2: USA and other countries pulling out of the World Health Organization. 200 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 2: We've got that dis and misinformation being baked into public policy. 201 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 2: A lot of young people seem to be quite affected 202 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,440 Speaker 2: by the pandemic, interfering with their. 203 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: Childhoods as well. 204 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,439 Speaker 2: If Christopher Luxen got a call next month telling them that, 205 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 2: you know, bird flu cases is skyrocketing and we need 206 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 2: to go into a lockdown again, you'd have to agree 207 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 2: that the public sentiment and support that was present five 208 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 2: years ago simply isn't there anymore. 209 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 3: Well, I think it's decreased. The surveys that we have 210 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 3: done and also read about show that there's still a 211 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 3: high level of trust, and scientists and health professionals also 212 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:08,719 Speaker 3: that most people supported the museum response. That's the elimination strategy. 213 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 3: So if we get it right, if there are future 214 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 3: pandemics of this scale or larger, there should be much 215 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:20,440 Speaker 3: more reliance on rapid productive measures like closing borders and 216 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:23,439 Speaker 3: switching to quarantine. And the good thing, or one of 217 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 3: the good things about those measures is they mean that 218 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 3: life in museum would carry on more or less as 219 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 3: it did during the good phases of the pandemic response. 220 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 3: That is that you could still have people attending mass 221 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 3: sporting events and going about their lives. And after all, 222 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 3: domestic tourism is always a larger contribution to our economy 223 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 3: than overseas tourism, so we can actually get by quite 224 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 3: well if we have to do that that response. Now, 225 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 3: I think lockdowns are a different measure. They do require 226 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,319 Speaker 3: a lot of public support to work, and many of 227 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 3: us would say we need to actually use other approaches 228 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 3: much more. And one of the most effective ways is 229 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 3: it still requires public engagement, is mask use. And the 230 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 3: evidence and I've been involved in some very large international 231 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 3: reviews that show masks are highly effective. They can stop 232 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 3: any virus, and while you're waiting for a vaccine that 233 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:20,320 Speaker 3: for fluid might take six months before it arrives. Masks 234 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 3: are very effective if we get local outbreaks, for instance, 235 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,839 Speaker 3: if our border controls don't work. So I'm optimistic. We've 236 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 3: got a lot of good tools and really lockdowns should 237 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 3: be a last resort, but certainly if you had a 238 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 3: very severe outbreak that was spreading across the country, you'd 239 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:38,079 Speaker 3: need to look at something like that. 240 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 5: A few thousand anti lockdown protesters have gathered in the 241 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 5: Auckland domain for the third time since the Delta outbreak began. 242 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 5: It's been called Freedom Day and is being led by 243 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 5: Destiny Church leader Brian Tomicki. The card have also marched 244 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 5: through a new market and farmers have also joined. They've 245 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 5: set up some vegetable stands in front of tractors with 246 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 5: some signs reading no farms, no food. Although organizers have 247 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,320 Speaker 5: encouraged it, little masks are being worn, nor is social 248 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 5: distancing being observed, and there is a strong police presence. 249 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 2: What's the likelihood of us seeing another COVID level pandemic 250 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 2: in our lifetimes? 251 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 3: Well, there have been several modeling efforts that have looked 252 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 3: at this level of risk understandably, and the risk is rising. 253 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 3: And currently the estimate is around twenty percent of seeing 254 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 3: another COVID magnitude pandemic within the next ten years, so 255 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 3: it's maybe around two to three percent a year. That's 256 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 3: the risk. And it's like earthquakes. You can look at 257 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 3: the overall level of risk, but it doesn't tell you 258 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 3: exactly when and where it will happen. I mean, if 259 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 3: it did, that would be fantastic, but modeling can't do that. 260 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 3: It can just look at an average level of risk, 261 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 3: and that risk is rising, and it's for a number 262 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 3: of reasons. Partly just that a massive humanity our contact 263 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 3: with animal reservoirs that might be the source of the 264 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 3: next pandemic agent. But actually my biggest worry now is 265 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 3: for engineered pathogens. And we have a growing list of 266 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 3: laboratories it's now approaching a thousand across the globe that 267 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 3: are called a level four lab and they have the 268 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 3: ability to work on very dangerous pathogens, and of course 269 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 3: a lot of them as farther know, all of them 270 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 3: are doing this for the right reasons, to plan better 271 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 3: defenses for pathogens, better anti virals, and so on. But 272 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 3: we have the technology to edit genomes now and alter pathogens. 273 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 3: And the worry is that this can happen if people 274 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 3: are radicalized or have personality disorders, and there are still 275 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 3: bad actors who may be doing things that are not 276 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 3: known these at a state level. So I think that 277 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 3: is an increasing concern for the future that I think 278 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 3: raises the risk level several degrees. 279 00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 2: And I mentioned before about bird flu or the H 280 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 2: five and one virus. Now that's been spreading over the 281 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 2: last year globally, but notably in the US. So, Michael, 282 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 2: how can we go about making people pay attention again 283 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 2: and prepare or even be interested in another pandemic threat. 284 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 3: One of the best things we can do now is 285 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 3: to actually get people used to using basic measures with 286 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 3: the winter peak of respiratory and fictions we get every year, 287 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 3: particularly influenza, which is still Before COVID nineteen it was 288 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 3: our number one infectures disease killer and it's still a 289 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 3: very significant virus. So, for example, we could introduce measures 290 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 3: such as encouraging people to wear masks on public transport 291 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 3: when we're in the middle of the flu season every 292 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 3: year as a protective measure that would get us used 293 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 3: to the fact that that masks are actually quite comfortable 294 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 3: once you're used to using them. And these are the 295 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 3: N ninety five masks that actually filter out small particles. 296 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 3: It's not the the basic surgical masks. So that's one 297 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 3: thing we can do. We need to get much better 298 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 3: at infection control in our healthcare system. There's some evidence 299 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 3: that about fifteen percent of COVID deaths in Australia, for instance, 300 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,960 Speaker 3: came from transmission and hospitals, and we have many reports 301 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 3: in New Zealand, but we're not even counting these cases here. 302 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 3: This is people who are very vulnerable, they earned hospital 303 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 3: for some reason, and then someone else gives them COVID 304 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 3: in that environment, and we really should be stopping this. 305 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 3: So these are practical ways of getting better at infection control. 306 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,679 Speaker 3: The other area, of course, is vaccination. We obviously have 307 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 3: We're not hearing much about COVID vaccine, but it's still 308 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 3: very good at protecting us from serious illness. And also 309 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:46,919 Speaker 3: one of its big benefits is reducing the risk of 310 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 3: long COVID and that's why I think we should lower 311 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 3: the age of eligibility for boosters down to eighteen, because 312 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 3: currently it's at thirty and that's different from other countries 313 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:58,919 Speaker 3: like Australia, so that all these things we can be 314 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:02,919 Speaker 3: doing now. I think we just need to have this 315 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:07,679 Speaker 3: public communication about these respiratory infections and the fact that 316 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 3: we don't have to put up with them. There are 317 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 3: things we can do and all of that better understanding 318 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 3: would mean we're much better able to respond to future 319 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 3: pandemics that will probably be other respiratory infections. And at 320 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 3: the moment we're not really seeing this conversation happening. But 321 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,679 Speaker 3: if you look at Asian countries which went through the 322 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 3: original SARS and then now COVID, they are a mass 323 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 3: wearing societies and public transport and so on, and of 324 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 3: course it's one of the things you really see is 325 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 3: quite striking when you go to those countries, and it 326 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 3: meant that places like Japan South Korea avoided largely avoided 327 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 3: lockdowns and they did have border management, but not the 328 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,120 Speaker 3: intensity of New Zealand, so that seemed to have been 329 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 3: one of the big benefits for those societies. But one 330 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 3: of the other areas that I think is so important 331 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 3: is to have a strong voice for public health in 332 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 3: New Zealand, just to keep reminding us that we can 333 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 3: make our populations healthier and safer and give people longer 334 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 3: lives without suffering from some of these avoidable threats. And 335 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 3: I'm quite concerned at the moment that we're seeing this 336 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 3: as some effor it's to muzzle the voice of public 337 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 3: health in New Zealand. I think this is sending a 338 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 3: chilling effect through the system. So some of the voices 339 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 3: in New Zealand I can no longer speak out on 340 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 3: public health concerns, particularly the local medical officers of health, 341 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 3: and I think it's a missed opportunity because the best 342 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 3: way to really get people prepared for these future threats 343 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,439 Speaker 3: is to keep them in the public eye, and so 344 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 3: I think it's a negative step to actually reduce the 345 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 3: public discussion about public health concerns. So I hope that's 346 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,879 Speaker 3: something we can learn from our experience with the pandemic 347 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 3: and the period since that we need to have. We 348 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 3: need to encourage these voices in these conversations. 349 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:58,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Michael. 350 00:19:58,359 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 3: Great to talk. Thank you. 351 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You 352 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 353 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 2: at enzdherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is 354 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 2: produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also 355 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 2: a sound engineer. 356 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: I'm Chelsea Daniels. 357 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the front page on iHeartRadio or wherever you 358 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look 359 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:30,440 Speaker 2: behind the headlines.