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Speaker 1: Now job ads have fallen for three months in a row.

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Speaker 1: There is hope that this might actually be the end

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Speaker 1: of the thing. We might be seeing a bottoming out here.

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Speaker 1: And Brad Awson is Informetrix principle economists.

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Speaker 2: Hey, Brad, good evening.

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Speaker 1: What makes you think we're seeing light at the end

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Speaker 1: of the tunnel here?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, things do seem like they might be

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Speaker 2: stabilizing a touch. Some of the fools in the last

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Speaker 2: couple of months haven't been as huge as what they

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Speaker 2: were if you go back to sort of earlier in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, and so when you look at the

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Speaker 2: latest SEEK data, it does seem to suggest again maybe

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Speaker 2: a little bit of that bottoming out or stabilization. To

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Speaker 2: be fair, it's at very low levels. I mean, the

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Speaker 2: number of job ads out there in the market at

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Speaker 2: the moment the lowest since May twenty thirteen on my calculations,

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Speaker 2: excluding that big hit from the lockdown. So you know,

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Speaker 2: it might be stabilizing, but it's stabilizing very very low.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what do you make of the fact that there's

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Speaker 1: been a bounce up in Wellington?

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Speaker 2: There are some odd figures looking through here, Heather, and

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Speaker 2: it's sort of you know, does make you under but

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Speaker 2: if there are parts of the economy that are perhaps

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Speaker 2: doing better than we give them credit for, I mean,

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Speaker 2: the likes of that Wellington increase a little bit surprise

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Speaker 2: and giving a lot of the doom and gloom. The

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Speaker 2: other one that really surprised me was the fact that

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Speaker 2: job ads in government and defense have lifted for the

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Speaker 2: last two months. In fact, they are up fifteen percent

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Speaker 2: month one month in October, so PEPs things maybe not

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Speaker 2: quite as bad. Also, I think probably highlighting that in

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Speaker 2: government there has been a lot of change, perhaps a

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Speaker 2: lot of people that have lost their jobs, and maybe

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Speaker 2: now government departments trying to rehire in a few areas

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Speaker 2: where they realize that they need a little bit more capacity.

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Speaker 2: Long story short, this is still not great news for

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Speaker 2: the economy. Job numbers are still down, job ads are

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Speaker 2: still down, and a lot of people are putting in

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Speaker 2: applications for what are fewer and fewer opportunities. But again

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Speaker 2: maybe a little bit of that turning point starting to

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Speaker 2: become clearer in the numbers, which might be again reinforcing

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Speaker 2: that view of greener shoots next year.

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Speaker 1: Now, apart from obviously government and defense, which are the

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Speaker 1: two places in Wellington that are hiring. What else is?

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Speaker 1: What other sector is are we talking about here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean in the latest month, so this is

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Speaker 2: October data. The biggest sort of gain was for banking

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Speaker 2: and financial services up eighteen percent month on month, and

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Speaker 2: a few more again changes around to the likes of

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Speaker 2: design and architecture, call centers, hospitality. So again maybe just

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Speaker 2: some of those areas that possibly got hit a bit

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Speaker 2: harder at the start that are now turning around the

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Speaker 2: other side. When we've looked at activity compared to say

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Speaker 2: a year ago. Some of the areas that are leased

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Speaker 2: hit are the likes of banking, design, legal and farming

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Speaker 2: the worst hit though again probably of no surprise, the

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Speaker 2: likes of advertising rolls down about fifty three percent year

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Speaker 2: on year, consulting in strategy down thirty seven percent, and

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Speaker 2: admin rolls down thirty five So business is still being

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Speaker 2: a lot tighter on how much money they're willing to

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Speaker 2: put out in the economy. But again maybe signs that

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Speaker 2: things aren't continuing to get as much worse and perhaps

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Speaker 2: than that turning point starting to come around.

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Speaker 1: Brad, it's good to talk to you mate, Thank you

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Speaker 1: so much. It's Brad Olsen, principal economic economist for Matrix.

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