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Speaker 1: Retailers are smiling today. This is after finally we are

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Speaker 1: seeing people part with some of their hard earned cash.

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Speaker 1: For November, retail cards spending up one point six percent

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Speaker 1: for the month compared to the previous year, setting a

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Speaker 1: positive tone ahead of Christmas. Nick Tuughley is asb's chief

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Speaker 1: economist with me, Nick, Good evening evening. So we're finally

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Speaker 1: feeling a bit better. We're finally going out and spending stuff.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we are. We look like we had a pretty

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Speaker 2: good time and have been spinning up it on the duryabols.

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Speaker 2: So those green shoots starting to flourish a bit more.

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Speaker 1: Are we just spending more because things are more expensive

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Speaker 1: or are we actually buying more stuff?

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Speaker 2: Well, it does look like we are buying more stuff.

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Speaker 2: We did see in the third quarter that the retail

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Speaker 2: sales volumes as well as the values were up quite strongly,

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Speaker 2: so nearly two percent over the quarter. So it looks

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Speaker 2: again like this will be a lift in both the

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Speaker 2: volume and the value of what we're spending. So not

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Speaker 2: just about prices. It doesn't like we're buying more stuff.

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Speaker 1: Great, what about we're getting a GDP number next week

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Speaker 1: of course for quarter three, which is backwards looking for September.

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Speaker 1: But you're expecting it to be better than what you

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Speaker 1: originally thought, are you.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we're expecting point eight percent now, so not too

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Speaker 2: long ago. We're expecting point five in point sixteen point

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Speaker 2: seven now point eight, And the manufacturing survey that was

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Speaker 2: out today suggested that Q four is going to be

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Speaker 2: pretty good. So at the moment, we're forecasting previsionally one

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Speaker 2: percent for that quarter. So it does it like the

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Speaker 2: second half of the year has seen quite a bit

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Speaker 2: of a rebound.

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Speaker 1: And also the first half. I keep going on about

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Speaker 1: this because it kind of annoyed me. And this is

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Speaker 1: the problem with the data is it's never accurate on

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Speaker 1: the day it comes out, right. But do you think

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Speaker 1: we will revise down? They will revise down next week.

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Speaker 1: The very bad number we got for quarter.

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Speaker 2: Two, Well, it's very possible that that point nine per

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Speaker 2: cent contraction gets revised or something a bit smaller. But

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Speaker 2: you've also got to be very mindful though that when

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Speaker 2: we're with this December release, we get a lot of

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Speaker 2: annual revisions coming through, so we could see some revisions

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Speaker 2: going back quite some time. But look, it would be

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Speaker 2: a good Christmas present if we see that big contraction

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Speaker 2: in the second quarter get revised to something a bit

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Speaker 2: smaller than what it was.

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Speaker 1: Next year, they reckon, we're going to grow faster than Australia.

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Speaker 1: We're going to go faster than the Americans. We are going

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Speaker 1: to go faster than the British and the year after

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Speaker 1: that too, do you well, we do have.

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Speaker 2: Over two and a half percent growth predicted for next

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Speaker 2: year and some things we're not too bad the year

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Speaker 2: after that, So look, it is possible. I think one

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Speaker 2: thing we've got to bear in mind before we pat

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Speaker 2: ourselves on the back too much, is that we've come

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Speaker 2: from one of the weaker economies recently, so we're sort

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Speaker 2: of getting back and growing above trend because we've been

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Speaker 2: in a bit of a bit of a rut, whereas

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Speaker 2: other countries slightly different circumstances. Australia's held up much better

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Speaker 2: than we have over the last couple of years, if anything.

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Speaker 2: That's still grappling with high inflation, and the US has

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Speaker 2: been sort of strangling itself a little bit with tariffs

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Speaker 2: for example.

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Speaker 1: Fascinating stuff. We'll look forward to next week's number. Nick

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Speaker 1: Tuley asb.

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Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive.

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