1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: It is Friday, and it is Friday confessional time. With 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: all the pope passing away and focus on Catholicism, I'm 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:11,320 Speaker 1: feeling quite repentant this morning. There are two things I 4 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: predicted would happen last December as I was signing off, 5 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: merely signing off for Christmas here at News Talk ZB. 6 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: One of those things hasn't happened, and the other one 7 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: is about to not happen. Yev winning the Canadian election 8 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: and Elbow losing Australia's We all know who's to blame. 9 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: You know who it is, the wildcard, the Cama, Carzee, 10 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: the outlaw. It was the Trump bump that did it 11 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 1: for these guys. Carney, while he's won, will have a 12 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: very tough term in office given the whole rally around 13 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 1: the Flagpole effect and support of the Canadian sovereignty movement 14 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: will fizzle out as quickly as just Sinda's COVID election 15 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: high did. The underlying problems Canadians felt before this month 16 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: long lovin' will remain, will persist, and this will surely 17 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: be his high tide mark. But that's no excuse I 18 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: got it wrong, fair cop. And as for Dutton, who's 19 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: now been well, looking behind the couch, looking under every 20 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 1: rock and every nook and cranny he can for something 21 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:12,199 Speaker 1: relevant to say. He's now beating up on the return 22 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 1: to country, which during a cost of living crisis people 23 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 1: want not really to hear about, Thank you very much, 24 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: sort of like when Judith Collins went on the attack 25 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: about fat people and that ill fated twenty twenty election campaign. 26 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:29,759 Speaker 1: Remember that if you want to lose weight, then eat less. 27 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: Actually not unreasonable thing to say for most people. But 28 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: it's the timing, isn't it. It's the timing in the 29 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: middle of an election campaign. It's the focus on that 30 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: when you should be talking about bigger things. And that 31 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: brings us to the elephant in the White House, Donald Trump. 32 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: While I predicted he would win last November, I think 33 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 1: most of us underestimated just what America First would mean 34 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: for the rest of the world. When somebody comes first, 35 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: somebody loses, and both Elbow and Karney have been the 36 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: benefactors of that. His power, of course, has swung global 37 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: political pendulums before. Remember his rise and international the rise 38 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: I should say, an international star power of Jacinda Adern 39 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 1: that was really borne out of an anti Trump backlash 40 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: from his first term, the liberal, young female prime minister 41 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 1: banning assault weapons and a country post mass shooting becomes 42 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 1: the darling of the global left, just the tonic for 43 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 1: those who not only dislike but actually despise Trump and 44 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: his band of Mary Maga supporters. So the political lesson 45 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 1: is don't underestimate the Trump bump or the Trump dump 46 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: on any foreign election. The question is what does this 47 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: mean for our election next year. We're less affected by 48 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: the tariffs unless China implodes. We're not yet being threatened 49 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: with invasion, though don't rule that out. And unlike the 50 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 1: Aussies and the Canadians, our incumbents aren't bent to the right. 51 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: So the risk of a Trump bump getting chippy over 52 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: the line here if you start singing from phel Goff's songbook, 53 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 1: is perhaps more limited, but not nonexistent. When Washington coughs, 54 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 1: somebody gets a colt. How Luxeon and Winston to an 55 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:18,639 Speaker 1: extent navigate the next eighteen months will determine whether it's 56 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: them that catches it. For more from Early edition with 57 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,839 Speaker 1: Ryan Bridge, listen live to News Talk Set B from 58 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.