1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: The Rural Report on hither do for see Allen Drive. 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: Jamie mckaye, host of the Country, is with me. Hello Jamie. 3 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:11,119 Speaker 2: I hope you're not thinking I'm an idiot surrounding you 4 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 2: at a quarter past six on Tuesdays and Thursdays. 5 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: Ever, No, not, it'll never and it'll be th thank you. 6 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: Of course you'll be thinking though you could do with 7 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: reading that book, Heather and and I shall. Okay, So 8 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:24,080 Speaker 1: we've got a GDT auction tonight. What are we expecting? 9 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 2: Ah, well, the talk's really positive and another lift of 10 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:31,479 Speaker 2: two percent expected. Just to give you a background around 11 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 2: this one, to go back in history, just half a 12 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 2: year even we rounded out twenty twenty five with nine 13 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 2: consecutive falls. If we hadn't got a positive auction to 14 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 2: kick off twenty twenty six, we would have broken the 15 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,639 Speaker 2: old record of ten consecutive falls. So that went back 16 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 2: to mid August twenty twenty five. But we've already had 17 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 2: two auctions in January, up six point three percent for 18 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 2: the first one, one point five percent for the second one. 19 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 2: Now Fonterra as a result of what happened at the 20 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 2: end of last year. On December the eighteenth, they dropped 21 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 2: their midpoint forecast milk price to nine dollars. Now, if 22 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 2: we get another positive GDT auction tonight, and the futures 23 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 2: market is suggesting we will, the question is whether Fonterra 24 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 2: might be tempted to lift that forecast milk price. I'm 25 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: not saying they will, but certainly there's a lot underpinning 26 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: it now at these current levels. Incidentally, Open Country Dairy 27 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 2: the second biggest dairy company in this country. I was 28 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,679 Speaker 2: speaking to their chief executive today. They're saying they're weighted 29 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 2: average for the season we're in at the moment is 30 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 2: nine dollars thirty. Now, the other interesting number to come 31 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 2: out of this is the twenty six twenty seven, which 32 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 2: is the dairy season that would start on the first 33 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 2: of June this year and go into next year. At 34 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 2: Christmas time. After nine falls in a row, the futures 35 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: had to eight dollars and five cents. They're now back 36 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 2: up at nine dollars. So this is very positive for 37 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 2: the dairy industry here at Heather. 38 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: And can I stay on this theme of positivity because 39 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: apparently there's a bit of strength and wool as well. 40 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 2: Well. There is a bit of strength and wall. The 41 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: strong Wool indicator is up fourteen cents last week's South 42 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 2: Island Wall auction. It's above the five dollar clean mark. 43 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 2: Still not as good as it was in the nineteen eighties, 44 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: but considering only very recently it was costing farmers' money 45 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 2: to share their sheep. I they would pay the sharers, 46 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 2: bail it up, chuck it on a truck, pay the transport, 47 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 2: send it to auction, and they would still not get 48 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 2: enough to cover their cost. So this is a really 49 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 2: good story. Still got a long way to go, but 50 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 2: it's certainly improving. And just remember the dollar and I 51 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 2: know that you've discussed this one on your show with 52 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 2: some of your financial correspondents. We're starting to spike upwards 53 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 2: against the greenback. We're currently trading when I had a 54 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 2: looks afternoon at about UE sixty cents. So this is 55 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:04,399 Speaker 2: good and the commentators are saying this is a new 56 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 2: normal for wall as opposed to a short term spike. 57 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 2: China is continuing to underpin the market, but this competitiveness 58 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 2: from other countries and regions around the world because there's 59 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 2: just not enough wall coming off because of the falling 60 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 2: sheep numbers, declining sheep numbers around the world. United Kingdom, 61 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 2: for instance, are getting into it India and we're going 62 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 2: to benefit there with this free trade agreement. As long 63 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 2: as labor votes for it, they're into it as well. 64 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 2: United States also sheep numbers declining right around the country. 65 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 2: And this is off the back of PGG rights and 66 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 2: the saying the new selling system which gets under way 67 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 2: shortly so there used to be sales and Napier and 68 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 2: christ Church effectively every second week. They're going to consolidate 69 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 2: the whole lot in christ Church. Now just one more 70 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: thing to go. I want to throw the track to 71 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 2: number out. For the UK, you might have time for this. 72 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,119 Speaker 2: Our tractor sales gone up by ten percent. That's good. 73 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 2: It's a barometer of the health of the rural economy 74 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 2: in the UK. Here the wait for this. Tractor registrations 75 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 2: have fallen to their lowest level on record in twenty 76 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 2: twenty five and now are at their lowest since before 77 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 2: the Second World War. Sekia Starmer and his labor government 78 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 2: are killing farming over there, particularly around their inheritance tax policy. 79 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 1: Jes That's quite an indicator, isn't it, hey, Jamie? Thank 80 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: you as always, Jamie mckaye, host of the Country. 81 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,280 Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, Listen live to 82 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 2: news Talks the'd B from four pm weekdays, or follow 83 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.