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Speaker 1: More doing numbers. As you heard from Andrew a moment

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Speaker 1: ago on this migration. Our latest data from the Stats

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Speaker 1: Department one fewer people coming to the country. In other words,

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Speaker 1: the peaks well and truly over to the mass exodus continues,

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Speaker 1: driven largely by young New Zealanders. Overall, we've got a

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Speaker 1: net gain of just twenty six thousand and four hundred

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Speaker 1: for the year ending March, along with the record loss

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Speaker 1: of around seventy thousand year Zealanders. Massa University sociologist Paul

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Speaker 1: Spoonley back with this. Paul, very good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Mike.

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Speaker 1: I think the last time we talked, you suggested that

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Speaker 1: a net negative wasn't going to happen. Do you still

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Speaker 1: hold that view?

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Speaker 2: No, it's a question mark, Mike. The net gain has

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Speaker 2: dropped by eighty percent in the last two years, so

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Speaker 2: we've gone from one hundred and thirty thousand net going

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Speaker 2: down to the twenty six thousand that you've just mentioned.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know the answer to this, but is

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Speaker 2: it going to keep is it plateauing now? Does it

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Speaker 2: reached the bottom or is it going to keep dropping?

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Speaker 2: Are we going to see something like the net lot

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Speaker 2: that we saw during the global financial crisis where we

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Speaker 2: went we saw more people leaving than actually arriving. And

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Speaker 2: that's the question mark. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: That's why I asked you the question last time. I

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Speaker 1: think we'll go negative, and because you needed to see

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Speaker 1: that the tail off on people arriving, I get, But

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Speaker 1: you needed to see the New Zealanders leaving tail off significantly,

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Speaker 1: and it isn't. And then that surely is a worry,

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Speaker 1: if not a crisis.

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Speaker 2: Well it is. And it looks as though the departing

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Speaker 2: New Zealand is year on year is around seventy thousand. Now,

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Speaker 2: it would be okay if we reached that seventy thousand

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Speaker 2: in one year and it started to come back, but

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Speaker 2: it's not. It's staying at that seventy thousand figure. It's

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Speaker 2: a lot of people.

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Speaker 1: Make it is a lot of people. And what worries

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Speaker 1: me sick is the young people. And we could use

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Speaker 1: a few to fill some jobs and to grow the

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Speaker 1: country and make us a little bit better than we

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Speaker 1: currently are.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and if you look at the age profile, then

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Speaker 2: those twenty somethings New Zealanders are leaving. I suspect that

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Speaker 2: not all of them, but some of them are our

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Speaker 2: best and brightest, and the question is will they come back?

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Speaker 2: And yes, there are New Zealander's returning, so we can

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Speaker 2: see that net number around that forty five thousand. So

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Speaker 2: we've got about twenty five thousand New Zealanders coming back

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Speaker 2: into the country. But the other thing which is growing,

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Speaker 2: which is of concern, is the thirty something New Zealand

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Speaker 2: is leaving. And you would assume that they have been

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Speaker 2: in jobs, they are doing jobs that we need them

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Speaker 2: to do in New Zealand, and so why are they leaving?

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Speaker 2: That would be good to know. And secondly, I think

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Speaker 2: that's a concern alongside those twenty somethings.

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Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. Historically, you mentioned the GFC historically,

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Speaker 1: where do you think this sits? And the reason I

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Speaker 1: ask that question is the GFC ends and things go

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Speaker 1: back to I'm not convinced things go back to anything

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Speaker 1: this time around.

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Speaker 2: No, And I think there are some international headwinds that

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Speaker 2: are going to arrive as well. So at the moment

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Speaker 2: appears that a lot of countries around the world that

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Speaker 2: are like ours, that are facing aging and a smaller

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Speaker 2: younger population because of fertility and immigration, are going to

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Speaker 2: have to some point get over their reluctance to see

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Speaker 2: immigration as being part of the solution. And when they do,

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Speaker 2: then we're going to all have to compete for that

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Speaker 2: talent that is internationally available. And at the moment, I

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Speaker 2: would suggest that Canada, Australia, New Zealand are pretty much

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Speaker 2: the only game in town. We use a point system

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Speaker 2: to identify the skilled migrants we want and it's been

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Speaker 2: pretty effective. I mean there are issues, but it's been

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Speaker 2: pretty effective. But if you get over the current anti

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Speaker 2: immigrant politics that you see in Europe and they start

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Speaker 2: and say yes, immigration, we want immigration, we're going to

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Speaker 2: have to compete internationally in a way that we haven't

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Speaker 2: done in the past.

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Speaker 1: Well, this is part of the malays as far as

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Speaker 1: I concern. Once upon a time we were like, oh

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Speaker 1: my god, New Zealand can't get there fast enough. I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure that's true anymore.

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Speaker 2: No, it's not. And the figure that most concerns me

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Speaker 2: in these latest ones are the number of non New

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Speaker 2: Zealanders who are leaving. So I assume that those are

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Speaker 2: migrants who come in the last ten years and have

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Speaker 2: said no more, I'm going And you know, alongside the

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Speaker 2: new Zealanders leaving. We really can't afford to recruit migrants

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Speaker 2: and for them to stay, not to stay and to leave.

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Speaker 1: Paul, always a pleasure to talk to you, even on

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Speaker 1: such matters. Paul Springley is Massa University sociologists. I was

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Speaker 1: told the other day it's a big thing in business

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Speaker 1: these at the moment CEOs. Have you got a talented CEO,

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Speaker 1: you lock them down because if you've got talent, the

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Speaker 1: world's your oyster. And too many people are looking to

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Speaker 1: leave and they can't be replaced, so you handcup them.

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Speaker 1: For more from the Mi Casking Breakfast, listen live to

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