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Speaker 1: Now it looks like Donald Trump is laying the groundwork

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Speaker 1: for a climb down from his massive tariffs on the Chinese,

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Speaker 1: because they're obviously sitting at one hundred and forty five percent.

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Speaker 1: Speaking earlier today, he said one hundred and forty five

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Speaker 1: percent is very high. It won't be that high. It'll

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Speaker 1: come down substantially, but it won't be zero. And this

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Speaker 1: comes after the US Treasury Secretary. He says he expects

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Speaker 1: a de escalation in the very near future.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Tim Grosser is the former New Zealand Ambassador to the USA.

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Speaker 3: Tim, Hi, Hello.

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Speaker 1: How mental is this situation? Do you think, on a

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Speaker 1: scale of one to ten, how mental?

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Speaker 3: I would love to have been in the Great Hall

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Speaker 3: of the People to watch President's expression a few hours

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Speaker 3: ago when he was told this piece of news, and

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Speaker 3: it reminds me when I found out because I've been

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Speaker 3: on the road today, I've just found out what he

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Speaker 3: said of advice I got as a very young official

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Speaker 3: from a very distinguished New Zealand diplomat who'd said to me,

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Speaker 3: you know, the best negotiators in the world of the sarmons,

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Speaker 3: because you put a proposition to the summons and they

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Speaker 3: sit there, they look at you, and they don't say anything.

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Speaker 2: And what you then do is you immediately change your

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Speaker 2: negotiating position. So I think, you know, the Chinese and

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Speaker 2: the Salmons are probably trained in the same basic schools

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Speaker 2: of human reality. They just do nothing while people keep

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Speaker 2: shifting their positions around them. I mean, I just do

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Speaker 2: not know what on earth the president thinks is now

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Speaker 2: going to unfold, having created this level of certainty and

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Speaker 2: uncertainty once before somebody else, that else was interviewing. I

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Speaker 2: remember the old children's nursery rhyme about the grand old

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Speaker 2: Duke of York. Think President Trump the Grand old Duke

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Speaker 2: of York. He had ten thousand men, He climbed them

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Speaker 2: up to the top of the hill, and he.

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Speaker 3: Climbed them down again. In other words, who the hell

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Speaker 3: can deal with this situation? And the answer is nobody.

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Speaker 1: What do you think happens? I mean, where do you

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Speaker 1: think Trump realistically ends up with the China tariffs?

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Speaker 3: Well, we're dealing here with what Marxists would call a

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Speaker 3: real unresolved contradiction. What his objectives are? You cannot use

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Speaker 3: high tariffs on declar trade war on all the countries

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Speaker 3: in the world, and in particular on China because you

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Speaker 3: want to create manufacturing and new jobs and get the

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Speaker 3: US back to where they were in nineteen fifty. If

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Speaker 3: at the same time you're saying no, I just use

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Speaker 3: this as a negotiating point, because no American will invest

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Speaker 3: in those new industries if they think they can be

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Speaker 3: negotiated away tomorrow. So we're actually dealing with a complete

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Speaker 3: contradiction in what the objective is. And I think in

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Speaker 3: this situation most people will just do nothing. They will

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Speaker 3: sit on their hands.

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Speaker 1: Well they would. You'd be wise to sit on your hands,

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Speaker 1: because you hardly know what question did you at any

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Speaker 1: point though this? Look I was saying earlier in the program.

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Speaker 1: With Donald Trump, we often judge him on what he

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Speaker 1: says he's going to do, and that seems like a mistake.

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Speaker 1: What we should be judging him on is what he

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Speaker 1: ends up doing, because most of the time, all of

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Speaker 1: the stuff is just him being a blowhard. Right, did

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Speaker 1: you ever for one second believe he really was going

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Speaker 1: to do this?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean he has implemented ten percent tariffs. Admittedly,

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Speaker 3: that was a massive climb down from the White House

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Speaker 3: lawn Liberation Day. You may record when you put on

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Speaker 3: massive tariffs, including sort of absurdities like fifty percent tariffs

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Speaker 3: on the Soto for God's sake, and then immediately reduce

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Speaker 3: them again. But we do know that he has done

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Speaker 3: something which is screw up the international training system. And

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Speaker 3: this still leaves unresolved the central issue I was saying

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Speaker 3: to a few people earlier today. You couldn't run something

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Speaker 3: as simple as the tiny news inland economy if every

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Speaker 3: business person, including your radio station, thought the underlying rules

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Speaker 3: that affect their business decisions could change radically day by day.

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Speaker 3: You could not run this little economy called out on

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Speaker 3: that basis. You certainly can't run an international economy on

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Speaker 3: that basis. So we still leave the big, the mother

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Speaker 3: of all questions behind us, which is or in front

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Speaker 3: of us, which is how are we going to manage

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Speaker 3: international trade without a system of rules and norms? Now?

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Speaker 3: I think the answer to that is, first of all,

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Speaker 3: nobody else. The United States is the pre eminent power,

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Speaker 3: There's no doubt about that, and the guarranteur in the

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Speaker 3: ost seventy five years of the open trading system, but

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Speaker 3: it's created a whole set of countries that actually do

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Speaker 3: believe in having a rules based system the United States

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Speaker 3: is not having other people following them down this rat hole.

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Speaker 3: So the Prime Minister will have had a discussion in

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Speaker 3: London twenty four hours ago with Keir Starmer. He will

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Speaker 3: have other discussions with other leaders. They all agree on

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Speaker 3: the need for a rules trading system. So you know

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Speaker 3: it's the United States has to finally define its position

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Speaker 3: in relationship to the rest of the world. Not just

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Speaker 3: the rest of the world has to define its position

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Speaker 3: relative to the United States.

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Speaker 1: Tim. Thank you always appreciate your expertise. Thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for talking to us. Tim Grosser, former New Zealand

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Speaker 1: Ambassadors to the US. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive,

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