1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: The only Drive show you can trust to ask the questions, 2 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: get the analysis, find the facts and give the analysis 3 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: together due to clam Drive with one New Zealand, let's 4 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 1: get connected and news talk zid be. 5 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,240 Speaker 2: Good afternoon. We've got another twist in the US election, 6 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 2: which is now only two days away. A poll and 7 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:25,119 Speaker 2: ioware considered a safe Trump state now has Kamala Harrison 8 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 2: the lead by three points. Now. Donald Trump has disputed 9 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,639 Speaker 2: the poll in a post on social media, saying polster 10 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 2: j Anne Seltzer as a Trump hater and that Iowa 11 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: was farmers love him. Henry Olsen is an American polster 12 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 2: who's been on the show many many times before. Welcome back, Henry, 13 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 2: thank you for having me about now, Henry. Is this 14 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:43,520 Speaker 2: a rogue poll or do you reckon? It's on the money. 15 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:47,520 Speaker 3: She has a great reputation, so it's hard to say 16 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 3: it's a rogue pole. But it's so far out of 17 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 3: mainstream of where Iowa's been over the last decade that 18 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 3: I have to think that she's got one of those 19 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 3: samples that bolsters say you get one out of every 20 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 3: twenty times. I can see Trump doing a little worse, 21 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 3: but it's hard to see Trump losing a state that 22 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 3: he carried by eight points in twenty twenty. 23 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: Yeah. 24 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 2: The weird thing about the selection is it feels like 25 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:14,040 Speaker 2: Karmela's in the lead this week. Trump was in the 26 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 2: lead last week. A couple of weeks before that, Karmela 27 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 2: was in the lead. Have you ever seen a race 28 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:19,919 Speaker 2: change the lead this much? 29 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 3: Not really, And I've never seen a race that's been 30 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 3: fifty to fifty like this. You've seen races that have 31 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 3: a convergence, like carold Ford and Carter where it moved 32 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 3: to fifty to fifty. You have a race like Reagan 33 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 3: and Carter in nineteen eighty where it starts at fifty 34 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 3: to fifty and then it breaks the idea that it's 35 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 3: just been neck and neck, like horses running nose to 36 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 3: nose for half of the race. That I've never seen 37 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 3: anything like that in the presidential campaign. 38 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: Who do you reckon? Is at the moment showing the 39 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 2: greatest signs of strength. I meancause at the moment you've 40 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 2: got a lot of women turning up, giving the Democrats hope. 41 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 2: But then you've also got a lot of Republicans voting early, 42 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 2: which is unusual, giving the Republicans vote hope, So what 43 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 2: are you reading here? 44 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's signs for both candidates. It's very 45 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 3: hard to call this race. But you take a look 46 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 3: at the data on the early voting, and they slightly 47 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 3: favor the Republicans, that women are voting but not at 48 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:23,079 Speaker 3: as great a rate, more than in the past, and 49 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 3: whereas Republicans are voting at a greater rate than in 50 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 3: the past. And we'll find out if those are new 51 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 3: Republicans or if those are just election day Republicans who 52 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 3: have moved up the timing of their ballot. 53 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 1: Okay, Well, then. 54 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 2: Explain something to me, Henry, because I thought the Republicans 55 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 2: were getting really nervous, which is why Trump was starting 56 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 2: to behave increasingly weird because I just assumed he was 57 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 2: worried and desperate. If he's not worried and desperate, why 58 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 2: is he behaving like this? 59 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 3: Well, I think because he's Donald Trump, you know. I 60 00:02:55,720 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 3: think I think he is older. I think he's wearing 61 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,920 Speaker 3: down a bit. I mean, it's difficult for him to 62 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 3: keep up the physical pace that he's been going on 63 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 3: to three rallies a day across the country, and tired 64 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 3: people make mistakes Joe Biden when he was tired, would 65 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,359 Speaker 3: have more gaffes, and I suspect for Donald Trump when 66 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 3: he's tired, he lashes out more. 67 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 2: Okay, so what does your gut say if you can't 68 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 2: actually call it based on what you're seeing, who do 69 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 2: you think wins? 70 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 3: Well, my actual prediction is going to be posted in 71 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 3: the New York Post Monday morning, and I'm calling a 72 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 3: very narrow victory for Trump in the electoral college. Why 73 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 3: because I think that when I look at the polling averages, 74 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 3: Harris is not winning the degree of independence that she needs, 75 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 3: and that the country has changed. It's moved slightly to 76 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 3: the right in the last couple of years, and that's 77 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 3: reflected in the polling. This might be the first election 78 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 3: in twenty years where the Democrats don't have a partisan 79 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 3: edge on election day, And when you put those two 80 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 3: factors together, it suggests a narrow but wide breath of 81 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 3: victory for Trump in the electoral college. 82 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 2: Henry, it's really good to talk to you. Thank you 83 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 2: so much for having a chat to us. Appreciate it. 84 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,359 Speaker 2: We'll talk to you in soon. Henry Olsen, American polster. 85 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: For more from hither Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to 86 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,679 Speaker 1: news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 87 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio