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Speaker 1: Does the weekend for the new US president. Plenty of

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Speaker 1: commentary on the plane crash. Of course, we had an

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Speaker 1: nicest project in somaliare on the tariffs are underway for Mexico, Canada,

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Speaker 1: and China, with more to come. Former Trade negotiated Charles

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Speaker 1: fineback with us.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Good morning.

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Speaker 1: Make we've been here before? Or is this different?

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Speaker 2: I think this is different. I think it is more

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Speaker 2: extreme than what we saw during the first term of

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Speaker 2: the Trump presidency. He has carried through on his threats

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Speaker 2: and it seems as though Canada and Mexico are facing

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Speaker 2: very comprehensive tariffs and China ten percent as well. So

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Speaker 2: this is at the extreme end of what people were talking.

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Speaker 1: About in Canada and Mexico. Is it about the border

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Speaker 1: or is it about trade?

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Speaker 2: Well, when I went to sleep last night, it seemed

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Speaker 2: to be about fentanyl in the border, But overnight there's

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Speaker 2: been lots of tweeting and it seems more fundamental. Indeed,

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Speaker 2: President Trump is talking about Canada's viability now these twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent tariffs have been imposed, and is continuing his

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Speaker 2: argument that they should become the fifty first state. So

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Speaker 2: he's undercutting his legal basis for justification for these for

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Speaker 2: these tariffs, and it's very worrying indeed, that he's talking

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Speaker 2: on these terms.

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Speaker 1: Last time Canada came back and targeted orange juice out

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Speaker 1: of Florida, Tennessee, Whiskey. Because of Mitch McConnell, all of

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Speaker 1: that stuff, it got talked down eventually. Is that how

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Speaker 1: this will ultimately and do you think we'll not?

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Speaker 2: Well, I would hope that would be the case, and

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Speaker 2: that there'll be a series of exemptions negotiated, mainly because

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Speaker 2: of the interests of US manufacturers and some importance who've

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Speaker 2: got power. But this just feels a little bit different.

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Speaker 2: So too early to tell. I think we're going to

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Speaker 2: see multiple legal challenges domestically in the United States, but

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Speaker 2: they'll be NAFTA or I mean US MCA, the Traide

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Speaker 2: agreement we've involving Canada, US and Mexico. There'll be panels

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Speaker 2: form WTO complaints. But so there could be injunctions domestically

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Speaker 2: in the United States because this is really hard to

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Speaker 2: justify in terms of US trade. Will but he does

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Speaker 2: seem to want to proceed, and I'm not sure that

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Speaker 2: the Senate and Congress have got the mojo there to

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Speaker 2: challenge and.

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Speaker 1: Where do we fit in irony being on Friday it's

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Speaker 1: announced that suddenly the other second biggest trading partner we've

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Speaker 1: got beating out Australia. Now we don't even have a deal.

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Speaker 2: Well, luckily tariffs into the United States for US low.

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Speaker 2: There's been no talk of tariff's being composed on New

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Speaker 2: Zealand per se. There is still talk about a global tariff,

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Speaker 2: but that would be very problematic in the US law.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it can be implemented by executive order.

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Speaker 2: That's something that has to go through legislature. The risk

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Speaker 2: for US in the short term is that there's going

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Speaker 2: to be a whole lot of trade floads disrupted what

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Speaker 2: he's imposed. They'd be Canadian and Mexico product looking for

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Speaker 2: new homes, and they'll be Chinese product looking for new homes,

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Speaker 2: and there'll be some opportunities there as well. There'll be

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Speaker 2: perhaps Chinese retaliation on the United States and maybe maybe

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Speaker 2: some new market opportunities there, but the United States may

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Speaker 2: not like people take advantage of those opportunities. So it's

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Speaker 2: going to be disruptive and we're going to see exchange

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Speaker 2: rape impacts as well, and probably equity market impacts, so

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Speaker 2: no New Zealander is going to be immune from this.

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Speaker 1: Wells appreciate the insight child Charles Finny, former trade negotiator.

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