1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: Heller duper Sel. Right, we've got the latest food inflation 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:05,720 Speaker 1: numbers and mince is the one that's really shot up. 3 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: It's gone up in price by almost a quarter, which 4 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,800 Speaker 1: is the biggest annual increase in two decades, and it's 5 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: contributed to food prices being four and a half percent 6 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 1: higher in the year to February with US now to 7 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,760 Speaker 1: analyze this is Infametric's chief executive Brad Olson. 8 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 2: High, Brad Good afternoon. 9 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: Right, this is just the international meat prices, isn't it effectively? 10 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 2: I mean, we've basically seen mince prices increase every single 11 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 2: month for the last wee while, and to be honest, 12 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,840 Speaker 2: I don't necessarily see that changing. We know that internationally 13 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:35,480 Speaker 2: there's still a lot of demand for protein. The US 14 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 2: is looking for beef. They need to make their hamburgers 15 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 2: and everything else, and there's not as much of it 16 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 2: around the world. In the US, they've got the lowest 17 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 2: beefstock numbers in like fifty years. If there's not animals 18 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 2: running around, they can't kill them and eat them for 19 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 2: us here at home. Even we've seen lower numbers of 20 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 2: beef being killed over time. I think it's down like 21 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 2: something like three percent so it does get us into 22 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 2: that position strong demand, not quite as much supply. Prices 23 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 2: have increased substantially, but of course it's hitting the bottom 24 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 2: line for a lot of Kibi households where mince is 25 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 2: normally or has been before the cheap option, now it's 26 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:06,479 Speaker 2: nowhere near. 27 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: Now, take a look at what is going on in 28 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 1: Iran and tell me what's going to happen to food prices, 29 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: not just mince, but food prices from here on. 30 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 2: It Well, it doesn't take a genius or an economists 31 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 2: to tell you that, I mean, prices are going to 32 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 2: go up weeks how much? Well, and that's the question, 33 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 2: and probably also how quickly is the point that we 34 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 2: keep coming back to. We know that not only oil 35 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: prices are key to transport costs, but also just the production. 36 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:30,400 Speaker 2: You know, if you're a farmer, you've got to use 37 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 2: diesel to move stuff around, to run the tractor and 38 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 2: everything else. So this is going to hit. We've done 39 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 2: some numbers recently that show that ten percent of non 40 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 2: wage operating costs into supermarkets are purely because of transport costs. 41 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 2: So that's going to really start to hit. What I 42 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 2: expect and what I'm hearing is sort of two angles. One. 43 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 2: Some businesses are saying, we know that prices have continued 44 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: to go up, we're not going to pass them on 45 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 2: because we're too uncertain. We're going to try and ride 46 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 2: this out and eat the cost for the next couple 47 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 2: of weeks. Others are saying, you know what, prices have 48 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 2: increased heaps, I need to increase mine as well, and 49 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 2: so they're pushing through them quickly. 50 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: But it's not just the next two weeks, isn't it. 51 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: I mean, as we know, there's a lag effect from 52 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: what happens here and stuff that is. I mean week, 53 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 1: for example, takes months to grow, so we're still months 54 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,079 Speaker 1: away from feeling what feeling what it does to bread. 55 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: So when does this If the war was called off today, 56 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: when would we be through What is going on with 57 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 1: inflation as a result of it. 58 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:21,959 Speaker 2: I think there's almost sort of two hits that come through. 59 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 2: The first is within the next sort of month to 60 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 2: three months, you'll definitely see that big impact hitting and 61 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 2: that will start I think the next week or two 62 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 2: are for some food items. It's more though, that even 63 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 2: within the next year you're going to see the impact 64 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:35,920 Speaker 2: because of all those high fertilizer prices. You're seeing at 65 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 2: the moment. If a farmer's going out to get their 66 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 2: fertilizer for next season and not applying as much because 67 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 2: it's more expensive, that's going to hit yields and what 68 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 2: they're producing sort of within the next twelve months, so 69 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 2: it's not an immediate hit. I think you sort of 70 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 2: see that shorter one within the next three months and 71 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 2: probably in the next couple of weeks pushing through then 72 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 2: not quite a lull, but not as intense pressure. And 73 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 2: then it's more just again how much supplies they're coming 74 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 2: into the system, what other shocks come through. But let's 75 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 2: be clear, I don't know if this conflict ends anytime soon, 76 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 2: and if it doesn't, that's where the pressure comes on. 77 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 2: It's not just the price, it's also can we get 78 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 2: enough fuel? 79 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, thanks for giving us a reality, Brad, I 80 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: do appreciate it. It's Brad Awsoon, Infametric's chief executive. For 81 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks. 82 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 2: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast 83 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio.