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Speaker 1: New grocery data from Infometrics and food stuff costs from

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Speaker 1: supplies to supermarkets rose by two point seven percent in June.

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Speaker 1: Costs in all departments ruped this year compared to last year,

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Speaker 1: and around two thousand items increased in price between May

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Speaker 1: and June. Joining men Ows and for Metrics chief forecaster

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Speaker 1: Gareth Cannon, Gareth, good morning. Forgive me, Gareth, I've got

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Speaker 1: to turn you on myself. Gareth, Gareth, good.

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Speaker 2: Morning, right, yes, yeah, keeping problems on the first day.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, sorry about that. Good to have you on the show.

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Speaker 1: So tell me why is this still going up?

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Speaker 2: There are still a few pressures coming in from overseas

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Speaker 2: which have affected things in the last month. We're still

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Speaker 2: seeing higher prices for cooking oil, coffee, chocolate, those sort

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Speaker 2: of things. And there are also a few higher produce prices,

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Speaker 2: a few fruit rising and price this month as well.

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Speaker 2: But I guess the key trend is, Look, we're not

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Speaker 2: seeing the same extended price rises that we're getting eighteen

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Speaker 2: months ago when the index was up more than ten

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Speaker 2: percent on a year ago. So it's been moderating over

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Speaker 2: the last twelve months or so and we're continuing to

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Speaker 2: see that trend happening.

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Speaker 1: Is that is that coming down at a steady pace

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Speaker 1: or is it Are you seeing a sort of a

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Speaker 1: reacceleration of some of these items.

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Speaker 2: There's a few individual items in there, but the overall

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Speaker 2: index is can it continuing to come down at a

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Speaker 2: fairly steady pace. It's still sitting I guess the growth

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Speaker 2: rate is above what we saw pre COVID, where prices

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Speaker 2: or costs were rising it you know, sort of one

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Speaker 2: to two percent random So we're hoping for more moderation

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Speaker 2: to be coming through. But there are still a few

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Speaker 2: little bits of sort of stickiness and in terms of

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Speaker 2: some of those prices.

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Speaker 1: Yet how important are these prices for the prices that

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Speaker 1: we pay at the supermarket?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there are a significant component, of course of what

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Speaker 2: ends up the cost coming through you in terms of

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Speaker 2: what you're paying at supermarket. They're not everything. Labor costs

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Speaker 2: and you know, commercial rent costs and electricity all those

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Speaker 2: sort of things also feed through into the costs that

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Speaker 2: supermarkets face and therefore the price that they charge you

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 1: Do you have any indication, I mean, are you are

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Speaker 1: you able to take these numbers and put them into

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Speaker 1: a fancy graph and then work out when this will

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Speaker 1: actually start coming down, you know, or perhaps even turn

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Speaker 1: the other way and go negative.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're not expecting it to go negative. I guess

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Speaker 2: what we've seen across the whole economy is that what

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Speaker 2: we've had over the last two or three years through

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Speaker 2: the pandemic and the sort of aftermath of that, is

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Speaker 2: that you've almost had a step up in the level

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Speaker 2: of prices overall, and I think food prices are not

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Speaker 2: immune to that either. We are expecting now, I guess

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Speaker 2: over the rest of the course of this year and

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Speaker 2: into early twenty twenty five that the sort of last

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Speaker 2: little bits of inflation that are still causing problems in

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Speaker 2: the system, that they will sort of be weeded out

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Speaker 2: and you will get price growth back to what we

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Speaker 2: were used to prior to Covida.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much for your time this morning, right

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Speaker 1: to heave you on the program sixteen minutes half to find.

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Speaker 1: That was Gareth Kennan, informatric's chief forecaster. For more from

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