1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,880 Speaker 1: Bryan Bridge Right now, Chinese goods one hundred and twenty 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: five percent tariff when they reached the US border. US 3 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:09,840 Speaker 1: goods eighty four percent of the Chinese border. It's a 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: high stakes game of who blinks first of chicken between 5 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: these two superpowers. Trump says won't be him. 6 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:18,119 Speaker 2: China wants to make a deal. They just don't know 7 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 2: how quait to go about it. You know, it's one 8 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 2: of those things that aren't quite they're proud people. President. 9 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:24,760 Speaker 1: She's a proud man. 10 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 2: I know him very well, and they don't know quite 11 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 2: how to go about it. But they'll figure it out 12 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: in the process of figuring it out. But they want 13 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 2: to make a deal. 14 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 1: David Man is a New Zealander who's been investing in 15 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: China for more than thirty years. He's with us from 16 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 1: Shanghai this evening. 17 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,840 Speaker 2: David, Hello, Hello, Ryan. 18 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 1: What do you think the chances are of China blinking first? 19 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 2: Well, Trump's already blinked on all the other tariffs that 20 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: he's flung at countries quite randomly, So I don't think 21 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 2: this is an economic argument. You know, Reciprocal tariffs really 22 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 2: are another of self injury. But once you get beyond 23 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 2: twenty or thirty percent against you. What else is piled 24 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 2: on doesn't really count. The whole thing is a political 25 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 2: push against China. So I think China's response to date 26 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 2: has been correct. It is reciprocated without escalation, and it 27 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 2: is going to sit tight. It is nothing to gain 28 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 2: by giving in. 29 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,119 Speaker 1: So you're saying, whether it's thirty percent, forty percent, fifty percent, 30 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 1: or one hundred and twenty five. Once you reach a 31 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 1: certain point, what you just start sending your goods elsewhere. 32 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 2: Exactly. And China has been I guess, Trump proofing its 33 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,759 Speaker 2: economy to some extent since his first term as president, 34 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 2: and in fact, Biden was a more efficient opponent against 35 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 2: China on trade in terms of applying Tower of surgically 36 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 2: blocking technology to China. But China expanded its share of 37 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 2: global manufacturing and trade made over those eight years. So 38 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 2: the time we come to the second trunk term, China's 39 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 2: already diversified considerably. This will hurt the American Market's an 40 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 2: important market, but China is apart from the eleven coastal provinces, 41 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 2: are developing country, and there are surges and downturns and 42 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 2: sectors all the time. Factories close it happened throughout the 43 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 2: ev sector. As they got to the point of being 44 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 2: able to produce great cars, there was a cost to 45 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 2: that and many fell by the wayside. So this is 46 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 2: a country that is a customed to being buffeted by 47 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:40,359 Speaker 2: such things, and it's the only counter is any partner, 48 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,639 Speaker 2: a trade partner that America has that as an internal 49 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 2: economy that's large enough and comprehensive enough that that can 50 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 2: be its engine and that can carry it through. It's 51 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 2: not as vulnerable as the other Southeast Asian countries are. 52 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: David, what does New Zealand do in a situation like this? 53 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,360 Speaker 1: You know China better than anyone in this country. What 54 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: does New zer and what should our line be so 55 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: that we don't I mean, obviously we want to suck 56 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: up to Trump get the best deal we can, but 57 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: we don't want to alienate China. It's our biggest trading partner, 58 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 1: it's number one and number two, so a lot on 59 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 1: the line for us. 60 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: I think we have a good history, and you always 61 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 2: hear that every round of political cycle moves, we get 62 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 2: a new government and they've got bigger challenges of the 63 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 2: previous ones, which I don't agree with. I think that's 64 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 2: something which it's just a truism out in Clark's administration. 65 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 2: John Keebill English's administration was very good at managing the 66 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 2: China relationship with the America relationship by not reacting to either, 67 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 2: by basically maintaining our non alige status, which doesn't mean 68 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 2: we suck up to anybody. And we did deals, and 69 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 2: we did deals as a country with little agency, but 70 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,839 Speaker 2: we're respected when we were in that position. I think 71 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 2: it's been confused in recent months under the current government, 72 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 2: but I see the language from Wellington in the last 73 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: I say two months has been pretty sensible. So I 74 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 2: think that we have a government and a national party 75 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: can look back on its predecessor administration learn from that, 76 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 2: take advice from that, and we don't need to reciprocate. 77 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 2: We've had a tariff slapped on us. Whatever we do next, 78 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 2: it's at this level we'll only hurt the New Zealand 79 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,599 Speaker 2: economy further. I think we just have to accept this 80 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,479 Speaker 2: for the time being, not out of weakness, but just 81 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 2: patiently watch because Trump is so volatile and he is 82 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 2: so unaware. I mean, listen to the tone of his language, 83 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 2: talking to China like a child that can't understand how 84 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 2: to deal with trade negotiations, This five thousand year old culture, 85 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 2: this extraordinary economy that's pulled itself out of poverty in 86 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 2: forty years, which would have taken two hundred for another country. 87 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 2: These guys know what they're doing. They have tremendous endurance 88 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 2: and oddly the lack of support the government suffered post 89 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: COVID and failed to recover in the last two years 90 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 2: because of a slightly flat of a significantly flat of 91 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 2: a normal economy. We're seeing our galvanization within China around 92 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 2: the government, and people are quite sanguine and there's a determination, 93 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 2: partly a defiance, that they'll make their way through this. 94 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 2: So I think New Zealand, as small as we are 95 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:35,239 Speaker 2: and as little political agency as we have, we should 96 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 2: also not choose to act immediately and be patient. 97 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 1: Just watch watch from David Appreciate your time David manchief 98 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: executive at Man China Investment Management. 99 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 2: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to 100 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 2: news talks. 101 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 1: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast 102 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.