1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,320
Speaker 1: So the Finance Minister Nichola Willis was on this program

2
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:04,320
Speaker 1: last night and she says she would like to have

3
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:06,800
Speaker 1: a discussion about how we're going to pay for our

4
00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:10,240
Speaker 1: superannuation in the future. But she quick to point out

5
00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:12,840
Speaker 1: National hasn't got a position on this at the moment.

6
00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:16,599
Speaker 1: Treasury has raised concerns about the increasingly large bill for

7
00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,680
Speaker 1: New Zealand Super and the independent economist Cameron Baggery is

8
00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:22,080
Speaker 1: with me to discuss Cameron, good afternoon.

9
00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:24,280
Speaker 2: Good afternoon, right, good to see you, Good to.

10
00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,960
Speaker 1: Talk to you. It's been a while. How urgent is

11
00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,800
Speaker 1: this discussion around the future of MS SUPER.

12
00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:33,240
Speaker 2: Well, I guess the longer we keep kicking the ken

13
00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,920
Speaker 2: down the road, the bigger the economic adjustment or the

14
00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,640
Speaker 2: shock we're going to face down the track in regard

15
00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,519
Speaker 2: to the tough choices we're going to make. You know,

16
00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,440
Speaker 2: we should have been biting into this in the nineteen nineties,

17
00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,040
Speaker 2: but what we keep on doing, Ryan is that no

18
00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,400
Speaker 2: one's got I guess what you call the guts to

19
00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:53,680
Speaker 2: make a bit of a stand. But if you look

20
00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,880
Speaker 2: at all the numbers, he's hell on super innuation in

21
00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:00,280
Speaker 2: combination with the fiscal cost of an aging population which

22
00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,640
Speaker 2: health care costs is clearly not sustainable for the next

23
00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:06,360
Speaker 2: sort of forty years. Treasury data statement on the long

24
00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:08,559
Speaker 2: term fiscal position, they've been saying for a long time,

25
00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:11,960
Speaker 2: government debt on a status quo is going to end

26
00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,160
Speaker 2: up towards two hundred percent of GDP. Despite those warnings,

27
00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:17,440
Speaker 2: we're still not prepared to buy the bullet and put

28
00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:19,600
Speaker 2: some alternative options on the table because the status quo

29
00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:20,840
Speaker 2: the numbers don't stack up.

30
00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:24,200
Speaker 1: It's allectually obviously very unpopular thing to do. But as

31
00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,360
Speaker 1: a as a relatively younger person, I don't expect that

32
00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:29,039
Speaker 1: by the time I get there that I'm going to

33
00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:30,920
Speaker 1: be getting the super that my parents are going to

34
00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,319
Speaker 1: be getting or that my grandma is getting. Right now,

35
00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,200
Speaker 1: what is better? I mean, you've argued for means testing.

36
00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:39,240
Speaker 1: Is that better than increasing the age?

37
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,920
Speaker 2: Well, I think we're going to need accommodation of policies.

38
00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:48,000
Speaker 2: Increasing the age makes an awful lot of sense because

39
00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,800
Speaker 2: we're living longer. When you see on separation first coman

40
00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,600
Speaker 2: in the nineteen fifty here the average age life expectancy

41
00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,040
Speaker 2: for a male was sixty seven and for a female

42
00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:00,600
Speaker 2: was seventy one, And now it's an ex of eighty

43
00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,720
Speaker 2: for both, so you're spending the bigger chunk of your

44
00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,520
Speaker 2: life over the age of sixty five, which just puts

45
00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,360
Speaker 2: more pressure on the public Purson. I think New zeal

46
00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,960
Speaker 2: superannuation should be leaked to life expectancy, and life expectancy

47
00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,960
Speaker 2: to be fair, is different across different ickness groups, so

48
00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,040
Speaker 2: you're not just going to have a female and a

49
00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,880
Speaker 2: male band. But I don't think that that in itself

50
00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:25,040
Speaker 2: is going to be sufficient. I view the wealthy state

51
00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,160
Speaker 2: is there for the needy. That's where it needs to

52
00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,320
Speaker 2: get prioritized. We've got now more than fifty percent of

53
00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:32,959
Speaker 2: le wealthy is spending. It's going towards New Zealand superannuation,

54
00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:35,919
Speaker 2: and some people need that money. But there's a chunk

55
00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:37,679
Speaker 2: of society that I don't think need that money, and

56
00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,640
Speaker 2: they're double dipping. And I know that they used the

57
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:44,560
Speaker 2: argument that I've paid my taxes all my life. Well sorry,

58
00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,280
Speaker 2: We're going to face some tough choices going forward because

59
00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,320
Speaker 2: if we expect the state is quite to work, then

60
00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:51,920
Speaker 2: someone's going to have to pay on the other side.

61
00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:53,519
Speaker 2: And the issue is who's going to pay on the

62
00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:54,200
Speaker 2: other side.

63
00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:58,239
Speaker 1: Cavin, Thank you Cameron Bagri independent economists from Bagri Economics.

64
00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,840
Speaker 1: For more from Hither Too Plausy Allen Drive, Listen live

65
00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,800
Speaker 1: to News Talk Set B from four pm weekdays, or

66
00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:06,880
Speaker 1: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio