WEBVTT - Inside the housing market: What you need to know about rates, CVs, and house prices

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<v Speaker 1>Hilda.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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<v Speaker 2>daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Rates have

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<v Speaker 2>increased across the country this week, with some cities better

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<v Speaker 2>off than others. Auckland Council has confirmed a five point

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<v Speaker 2>eight percent average residential rates increase, the same day that

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<v Speaker 2>Wellington's council struck a twelve percent lift in their rates. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 2>Gisbon residents face an average nine point ninety five percent

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<v Speaker 2>rate increase, which equates to about four hundred dollars or

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<v Speaker 2>less for eighty percent of homeowners there, and the increases

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<v Speaker 2>have come at the same time as council valuations in

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<v Speaker 2>Auckland dropped by nine percent. But what do lower cvs

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<v Speaker 2>mean for your rates bill and what does it mean

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<v Speaker 2>in the context of the wider property market Today? On

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<v Speaker 2>the front Page, opuh's partner's economist Ed McKnight is with

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<v Speaker 2>us to bust some myths about valuations, rates and the

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<v Speaker 2>current state of the housing market. Ed, we've seen a

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<v Speaker 2>variety in rates increases around the country, which mostly all

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<v Speaker 2>came in effect at the start of the month. What

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<v Speaker 2>are some of the trends that you've seen this year.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, the most interesting thing is some areas aren't seeing

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<v Speaker 1>massive rates increases, like place like Wanganu we are only

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<v Speaker 1>up two point two percent. Auckland that are actually below

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<v Speaker 1>average as well, up about five point eight percent. But

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<v Speaker 1>some council areas have really ramped up rates. Down on

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<v Speaker 1>the West Coast, we've seen regional rates go up over

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five percent. My understanding is that Hastings Napier are

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<v Speaker 1>all up over twenty percent as well. Pretty easy to

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<v Speaker 1>understand why, given that they've had some really big issues

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<v Speaker 1>with weather related events recently. But even areas like Kluther

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<v Speaker 1>District way down South and Otago they have seen massive

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<v Speaker 1>rates increases there too.

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<v Speaker 2>And the rates increase that's come for Auckland is a

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<v Speaker 2>few weeks after homeowners received their council valuations. Now what

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<v Speaker 2>is this CV and what does it mean for your

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<v Speaker 2>house price?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's real interesting. A lot of people are quite

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<v Speaker 1>surprised that they've got their new CV. Their house value

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<v Speaker 1>appears to drop, but they're still paying a higher rates bill.

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<v Speaker 1>And what you've got to understand is that your house

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<v Speaker 1>price doesn't necessarily impact the exact amount of rates that

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<v Speaker 1>you pay. It does, but kind of in a roundabout way.

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<v Speaker 1>So the way that it works is that Auckland Council

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<v Speaker 1>or any of the councils will say how much money

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<v Speaker 1>do we need to raise this year and spoiler alert,

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<v Speaker 1>it's more than last year, and the CV is used

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<v Speaker 1>to say, well, how much of a share should each

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<v Speaker 1>homeowner have to pay? Well, if your house is a

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<v Speaker 1>bit more expensive than somebody else's house, you probably have

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<v Speaker 1>more money, so you pay a higher share of those rates.

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<v Speaker 3>So even though most.

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<v Speaker 1>People's cvs have gone down, their house values have gone down,

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<v Speaker 1>what really matters is, well, how much has rules changed

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<v Speaker 1>compared to everyone else's. So if your house value didn't

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<v Speaker 1>go down by the average of about nine percent, then

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<v Speaker 1>you will pay a higher share of your rates of

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<v Speaker 1>the rates in total and get an above average rates increase.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, So I was doing some research and I came

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<v Speaker 2>across some common myths or assumptions online about rates and cvs.

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<v Speaker 2>One was that because property values have reduced, your rates

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<v Speaker 2>will reduce as well.

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<v Speaker 3>Is that right extically what we were just talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>There's another myth that councils really want house prices to

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<v Speaker 1>go up because then they get to charge everybody more

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<v Speaker 1>and more rates. But if your house value goes up

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<v Speaker 1>or goes down by ten percent, that doesn't mean that

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<v Speaker 1>the council charges you ten percent more if your house

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<v Speaker 1>value in or charges your ten percent less because the

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<v Speaker 1>house value has gone down. It's all about what is

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<v Speaker 1>the share of rates that you pay, and the cvs

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<v Speaker 1>are just the mechanism to make sure that people who

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<v Speaker 1>have more money and can afford more expensive houses end

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<v Speaker 1>up paying a higher share.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that a bit of an old school assumption though,

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<v Speaker 2>just because you live in a real snazzy house that

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<v Speaker 2>you've presumably got more money to pay rates.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's probably quite a simple way about going

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<v Speaker 1>about it, because there are lots of different ways that

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<v Speaker 1>you could decide, well, who pays more, who pays less.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's a pretty fair way to go about it. Personally,

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<v Speaker 1>I live in an above average house, and so I

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<v Speaker 1>pay and above average share. I have an above average

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<v Speaker 1>rates bill. I kind of think that's fair. Where it

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<v Speaker 1>does come a little bit unstuck, as if you're a retiree.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's say you bought a house for a packet

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<v Speaker 1>of raspberries back in nineteen eighties. Now your house value

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<v Speaker 1>might be way way way way more expensive. Now, that's

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<v Speaker 1>good because you've got some more equity. But if you're

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<v Speaker 1>a retiree, maybe your income's gone down. But there are

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<v Speaker 1>targeted packages of support, like you can defer your rates bill.

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<v Speaker 1>If you are a retiree and you're struggling to pay it,

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<v Speaker 1>you can defer it and pay it once you eventually

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<v Speaker 1>sell that house.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, So, raising rates or raising property valuations, it's not

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<v Speaker 2>a council cash grab.

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<v Speaker 1>No, No, there is a I think you could say

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<v Speaker 1>there's a council cash grab going on in that some

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<v Speaker 1>areas are increasing rates by a quarter twenty five percent

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<v Speaker 1>because they want to spend more, so they're definitely grabbing

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<v Speaker 1>more cash. But it's not like the councils there being

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<v Speaker 1>like how can we push up house prices? Because if

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<v Speaker 1>we push up house prices, that naturally means that we

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<v Speaker 1>can charge everybody more rates. It's about the percentage that

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<v Speaker 1>each of us.

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<v Speaker 3>Pay the rates but will get.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not like because if you're values drop, it doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>mean your rate spills go down, rate bill goes down, doesn't.

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<v Speaker 3>It just means it increases that are stole rate than

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<v Speaker 3>it otherwise. Whatever.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, So pretty much, if you were If your CV foil,

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<v Speaker 4>say fifteen percent, you're alluded to the average there was

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<v Speaker 4>down about nine If your CV fel fifteen percent, you're

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<v Speaker 4>probably still going to see a rate spill increase, but

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<v Speaker 4>it might just be smaller than others. If your CV

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<v Speaker 4>foul five percent, you're going to see a ratespell increase,

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<v Speaker 4>and it may well be a little bit bigger than others.

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<v Speaker 4>So really this is set as at May twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 4>It's away of allocating rates across every home in Auckland,

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<v Speaker 4>nothing more than that.

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<v Speaker 2>Were you surprised by some of the revaluations.

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<v Speaker 1>I was surprised that some of them didn't go down more. Actually,

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<v Speaker 1>because the most recent rates were taken in about May

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty four, kind of mid last year is when

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<v Speaker 1>the current cvs that just came out were set. Certainly

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<v Speaker 1>in Auckland, the previous ones were set really close to

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<v Speaker 1>the peak of the property market, which was round and

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<v Speaker 1>June twenty twenty one. Well, since that point we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>property values in Auckland fall roughly about twenty percent. The

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<v Speaker 1>fact that the average CV dropped only nine percent in Auckland,

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<v Speaker 1>I thought, actually that's a bit less of a drop

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<v Speaker 1>than I was expecting.

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<v Speaker 2>And should renters care about CVS and rates? How does

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<v Speaker 2>it affect them?

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<v Speaker 1>Only to a very very small degree. If rates are increasing,

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<v Speaker 1>that means more costs on your landlord. You will see

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<v Speaker 1>some people say that, well, if the if landlord's costs

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<v Speaker 1>go up, they then pass that onto the tenants. But

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<v Speaker 1>at a market like we're in today, that doesn't really happen.

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<v Speaker 1>Renters rarely do hold the upper hand a bit because

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<v Speaker 1>we've got a lot of supply on the market in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of lots of landlords trying to find tenants, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's a bit slower for them at the moment they're

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<v Speaker 1>finding it is taking an extra week to get a

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<v Speaker 1>tenant in. And because of that, even though rates are

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<v Speaker 1>increasing in places like Auckland, you are rents tick down

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit. So I wouldn't be too concerned at

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<v Speaker 1>least in this market if I was a renter seeing

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<v Speaker 1>that rates have gone up.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, What about if you're on the market for a house,

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<v Speaker 2>you're looking for somewhere to buy, how do you leverage

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<v Speaker 2>cvs in your negotiation process?

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<v Speaker 1>Perhaps kind of depends what you're trying to do in

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<v Speaker 1>which side of the table you're on.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's something a bit cheaper.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, I'll.

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<v Speaker 1>May be a good example a Native mind was trying

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<v Speaker 1>to sell their property. They looked at their CV and

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<v Speaker 1>they thought, hmmm, we've done some renovations to this property,

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<v Speaker 1>so the CV looks a bit low.

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<v Speaker 3>I know what we'll do.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll go to the council and we'll try and get

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<v Speaker 1>that CV adjusted up and that will mean that we

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<v Speaker 1>pay a little bit more rates temporarily, but that will

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<v Speaker 1>look a bit better to the buyer because then they'll think, wow,

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<v Speaker 1>if the CV is up here, that means we're getting

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<v Speaker 1>a really good deal. And so one trick if you

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<v Speaker 1>are selling your property and you've done some renovations all

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<v Speaker 1>the market has moved up is it does cost you

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<v Speaker 1>the money. But if you get a registered valuation, you

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<v Speaker 1>can go to the council and say, hey, put my

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<v Speaker 1>CV up And even though it means that the next

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<v Speaker 1>buyer will have to pay slightly more in rates, often

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<v Speaker 1>that's going to help you in terms of positioning where

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<v Speaker 1>your property is.

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<v Speaker 3>That sounds a bit sneaky, ed.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it? It's not sneaky. The CV is the CV

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<v Speaker 1>an actual fact. Buyers and sellers should not really care

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<v Speaker 1>too much about the cvs, because they're really out of date.

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<v Speaker 1>Even sitting here today, the CV of my house was

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<v Speaker 1>set twelve months ago, so that doesn't really reflect the

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<v Speaker 1>value of what the property is today. But given that

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<v Speaker 1>some buyers and some sellers really care about the CV

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<v Speaker 1>and think that that's an accurate reflection of the value.

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<v Speaker 1>If you are a seller, if you are a buyer,

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<v Speaker 1>then this is about how do you position how do

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<v Speaker 1>you position this house to either get the price that

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<v Speaker 1>you want or the sale price that you want.

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<v Speaker 2>Looking at house prices in general, how are things performing

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<v Speaker 2>at the moment? I've seen reporting, including from Opus Partners,

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<v Speaker 2>on a two tier recovery happening around New Zealand. Can

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<v Speaker 2>you explain that to us?

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<v Speaker 1>We are seeing some parts of the country pretty much

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<v Speaker 1>flat or still going down. Parts of Wellington over the

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<v Speaker 1>last twelve months have seen property prices fall four five

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<v Speaker 1>in some cases up to nine percent. So we're still seeing,

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<v Speaker 1>especially Wellingtonian's doing it really tough. Compare that to a

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<v Speaker 1>place like in the cargol Over the last twelve months,

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<v Speaker 1>house prices up four percent since the bottom of the

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<v Speaker 1>market about two years ago. In the Cargo City, house

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<v Speaker 1>prices are up around about fifteen percent since the bottom

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<v Speaker 1>of the market. Dunedin's up eight percent, Queenstown's up eleven percent,

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<v Speaker 1>christ Church is up seven percent. So if you're sitting

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<v Speaker 1>here in Auckland's like i am, you're probably seeing a

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<v Speaker 1>very very flat property market.

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<v Speaker 3>But not everywhere in the.

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<v Speaker 1>Country is flat, and so we are in this period

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<v Speaker 1>where you're going to get a lot of conflicting information

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<v Speaker 1>about our house prices going up, are they going down,

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<v Speaker 1>are they staying the same. The other thing that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to contribute to that is that while we're in this

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<v Speaker 1>flat market, there are three different data providers that the

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<v Speaker 1>media will quote qv core Logic, which is ow called Totality,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand. Because all

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<v Speaker 1>of these organizations release different measures, one data company might

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<v Speaker 1>be saying house prices are going up while another one

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<v Speaker 1>is saying they're going down. And we just saw that

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<v Speaker 1>last month where Cotality formerly core Logic, was saying yep,

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<v Speaker 1>house prices have ticked up zero point two percent over

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<v Speaker 1>the last month, and just a couple of weeks before that,

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<v Speaker 1>Rhymes came out and said house prices are down zero

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<v Speaker 1>point six percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, So when it comes to reading into those valuations

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<v Speaker 2>and those kind of that criteria critiques. We've got to

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<v Speaker 2>keep it kind of like treat it like a political

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<v Speaker 2>poll maybe, so pick and choose things and really look

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<v Speaker 2>into the data really to see what we can get

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<v Speaker 2>from it, rather than just taking everything verbatim.

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<v Speaker 3>Do you know, well, that's a really good analogy.

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<v Speaker 1>Never heard somebody explain it that way, But that's exactly

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<v Speaker 1>how you should think about it. Just like political polls

0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:14.880
<v Speaker 1>are up or down, they are just one reading. You

0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:17.400
<v Speaker 1>probably do want to look at all of the different

0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:20.440
<v Speaker 1>data sources together. The truth of the matter is the

0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:23.360
<v Speaker 1>property market is pretty flat. We are seeing that and

0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:26.320
<v Speaker 1>across a range of different measures. So I'll give you

0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:28.760
<v Speaker 1>another example. It's not just house prices that are pretty flat.

0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:32.640
<v Speaker 1>New build dwelling consents have basically flattened out and have

0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:36.560
<v Speaker 1>for the last year to eighteen months. We're now roughly

0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:40.360
<v Speaker 1>issuing the same number of new dwelling consents that we

0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.800
<v Speaker 1>were back in twenty nineteen. So during the big COVID boom,

0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:46.920
<v Speaker 1>we saw this massive ramp up in construction that's now

0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:50.559
<v Speaker 1>come back and is settled down around that twenty nineteen

0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:53.320
<v Speaker 1>level housing stocks. Another one to look at. We saw

0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:56.000
<v Speaker 1>this massive ramp up of lots and lots and lots

0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:58.800
<v Speaker 1>of people listing their properties for sale over the last

0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:02.360
<v Speaker 1>year to eighteen months. That has now flattened out in

0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.959
<v Speaker 1>terms of the amount of housing stock. It's landed out

0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:07.280
<v Speaker 1>at a high level, but there's just a bit more

0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:09.760
<v Speaker 1>stability going on in the market at that moment.

0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:14.400
<v Speaker 5>There is an objection process for the CVS. If you

0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:18.040
<v Speaker 5>believe that the CV is incorrect for your property. Now

0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:20.240
<v Speaker 5>reasons that you might want to do this. The most

0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.800
<v Speaker 5>likely reason would be that the CV is significantly higher

0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:26.839
<v Speaker 5>than you would expect, which means you'd pay more rates

0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 5>than you would expect, so you might want to object

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:33.520
<v Speaker 5>to get the CV lower. The other reason is that

0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:37.280
<v Speaker 5>some parties in the market, and we wouldn't really agree

0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:39.439
<v Speaker 5>with this, but some parties do use the CV as

0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:41.480
<v Speaker 5>like a benchmark if they're selling their property, and they

0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:44.120
<v Speaker 5>might want to get it higher for that reason. Although

0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:48.040
<v Speaker 5>we would argue that better quality information means that the

0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:50.600
<v Speaker 5>cvs are less important for that purpose these days, but

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.120
<v Speaker 5>put that aside, you might want to object to it.

0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:56.800
<v Speaker 2>Right when I moved to New Zealand, one of the

0:13:56.800 --> 0:14:00.559
<v Speaker 2>things I always heard about was the housing cre crisis

0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:03.520
<v Speaker 2>that was ten years ago. Granted, but it does feel

0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:06.360
<v Speaker 2>like we aren't talking about this crisis. We're not in

0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:10.080
<v Speaker 2>crisis mode these days, a thing stabilizing in terms of

0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:12.680
<v Speaker 2>those new builds and in terms of the housing market

0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:13.160
<v Speaker 2>in a whole.

0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, you did right.

0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:17.000
<v Speaker 1>We've moved on to about seventy five other crisis we're found. Yeah,

0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:20.120
<v Speaker 1>and it's nice to see it. Australian, come the other way,

0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:22.080
<v Speaker 1>come over the side of the tasmhen. It's great to

0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:22.840
<v Speaker 1>have you here, Chelsey.

0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:24.080
<v Speaker 2>We have of us here.

0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:28.280
<v Speaker 1>We are seeing that stability now in terms of the

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:31.120
<v Speaker 1>level of housing stock flatted out, the level of new

0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:35.680
<v Speaker 1>build dwelling consents flatten out, house prices flattening out. It's

0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:37.880
<v Speaker 1>only when we really start to see a lot of

0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:41.720
<v Speaker 1>inflation house prices skyrocket that we start to really call

0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:44.600
<v Speaker 1>it a crisis. I do think in five, ten, fifteen

0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:47.520
<v Speaker 1>years time there will be another cycle where it comes

0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:50.400
<v Speaker 1>back and we're talking about a housing crisis again. But

0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:53.640
<v Speaker 1>at the moment, because a lot of things are flattening

0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:57.080
<v Speaker 1>out and stabilizing, our attention is elsewhere. It is a

0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.560
<v Speaker 1>great time to be a home buyer right now. There

0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:01.640
<v Speaker 1>is a a lot of housing stock on the market,

0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:04.680
<v Speaker 1>more than we've had for the last about ten years.

0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:08.640
<v Speaker 1>While interest rates are coming down and so there are

0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:11.520
<v Speaker 1>there are more buyers stepping forward and saying, yes, we

0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:15.160
<v Speaker 1>are going to purchase. But that's not translating into higher

0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:19.640
<v Speaker 1>house prices, and that's not translating into fewer listings property

0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:22.800
<v Speaker 1>listings available on the likes of trade me or one

0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:24.480
<v Speaker 1>roof for real Estate dot courd Denz.

0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:28.920
<v Speaker 2>So finally, ed overall, how do you rate the health

0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:30.520
<v Speaker 2>of the housing market?

0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:33.040
<v Speaker 3>Oh, on a scale of what Chelsea?

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.160
<v Speaker 2>Oh, go on, I haven't thought that far ahead. Give

0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:38.480
<v Speaker 2>it like out of ten stars or something.

0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:43.080
<v Speaker 3>I would give it like a four or a five.

0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:47.920
<v Speaker 1>It's not sick anymore in terms of house prices falling

0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:51.920
<v Speaker 1>massively and homeowner has been really worried about that. Across

0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:55.440
<v Speaker 1>most of the country, it's pretty stable across again, those

0:15:55.760 --> 0:16:00.000
<v Speaker 1>number of listings online, properties selling again, it's all pretty safe.

0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:01.440
<v Speaker 3>I'd give it four or five.

0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:04.840
<v Speaker 1>But having said that, houses are still expensive, right, so

0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:07.120
<v Speaker 1>if you were a first home buyer look at the market,

0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.280
<v Speaker 1>you'd say absolutely not, it's one out of ten because

0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:12.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm still struggling to purchase the House.

0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:14.880
<v Speaker 3>Thanks for joining us, ed Thanks Chelsea.

0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:21.160
<v Speaker 2>That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You

0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:25.000
<v Speaker 2>can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:29.080
<v Speaker 2>at enzadherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is

0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:32.840
<v Speaker 2>produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also

0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 2>a sound engineer.

0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.080
<v Speaker 3>I'm Chelsea Daniels.

0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 2>Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you

0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:43.640
<v Speaker 2>get your podcasts, and tune in on Monday for another

0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:45.359
<v Speaker 2>look behind the headlines.