WEBVTT - What Russia wants for peace and why some countries are pushing back 0:00:05.600 --> 0:00:06.000 Kiyota. 0:00:06.120 --> 0:00:09.240 I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 0:00:09.320 --> 0:00:16.919 daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Russia is 0:00:16.960 --> 0:00:18.640 apparently ready to go to. 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.480 War with Europe. Well, that's according to its president. 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:27.080 Vladimir Putin met with US negotiators this week for about 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:31.600 five hours to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. He's 0:00:31.640 --> 0:00:34.920 accused European leaders of trying to scover the peace talks 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:37.800 with the US, saying they're tweaks to a plan to 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:42.159 end the war were unacceptable. The Kremlin has apparently accepted 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:45.960 some proposals to end it, although latest talks. 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:47.600 Haven't yielded a breakthrough. 0:00:47.720 --> 0:00:51.400 Today on the Front Page, University of Waikato international law 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:54.800 professor Al Gillespie's with us to run through what could 0:00:54.840 --> 0:01:01.960 happen next. Our first, tell me about this twenty eight 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:05.680 point plan that Russia and the US have supposedly agreed 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:07.800 to slash been talking about. 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:11.200 It's difficult to work out which plan we're talking about 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:13.640 in a sequence right now. It starts out with a 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:17.800 twenty eight point plan that has effectively a broad agreement 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:21.400 between America and Russia. It then turns to a nineteen 0:01:21.440 --> 0:01:25.640 point plan which is effectively between America and Ukraine. It 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:30.600 then goes back to Moscow and it's somewhere between the 0:01:30.600 --> 0:01:33.640 twenty eight points and the nineteen points. But it's coming 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:36.640 down to a few areas we can't get agreement on, 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:41.640 which primarily are about territory, the security, force, and accountability. 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:46.360 Well, it includes banning Ukraine from ever joining NATO and 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:50.680 halving the size of the Ukrainian army. First off, what's 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.560 the benefit of Ukraine joining NATO. 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:58.400 Ukraine has a difficult relationship with Russia, and this is 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:01.600 now in a full scale war. Well, there is very 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:04.600 little trust or good faith between them. There was an 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:07.200 agreement in nineteen ninety four when Ukraine gave up to 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:10.880 nuclear weapons that its territorial sovereignty and its integrity would 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:15.720 be respected by Russia, America and Britain, and that agreement 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.120 was not worth the paper it was printed on, and 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:20.600 so becaurse of the Russian invasion, they now feel that 0:02:20.639 --> 0:02:23.079 they need something stronger than just to promise of mister 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:26.919 Putin to defend whatever is remaining of the country. If 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:29.560 they go for a collective agreement, it would mean that 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:32.160 an attack against Ukraine would be an attack against all 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:34.560 members who signed that agreement, and that could either be 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:39.000 European countries or it could be NATO itself. But mister 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:42.040 Putin is clear he doesn't want Ukraine to be linked 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:45.240 in any defensive alliance with any other country, which means 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:48.000 it would be perpetually very weak and vulnerable to another attack. 0:02:48.520 --> 0:02:52.000 So the significance of joining NATO would mean that you've 0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:55.160 just automatically got the backing of all of its members. 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.520 Strictly, an attack against one is an attack against all, 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:01.040 so that means that all twin eight countries would respond 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:04.040 at the same time. So if Britain was hit by Russia, 0:03:04.200 --> 0:03:06.320 the other twenty seven countries would come in and respond 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:10.799 against the aggressor. And missus Zelenski would like that same 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:13.560 guarantee given to his country because he feels that if 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:16.200 you've just got a promise without security of other countries, 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:21.080 you're vulnerable to another attank. That vulnerability is increased when 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:24.240 you get demands such as reductions or restrictions on the 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:26.680 size of the military that Ukraine may possess or the 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:29.000 weapons that they can have in their arsenal. 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:30.400 Yeah, well, let's talk about that. 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:34.120 Halving the size of the Ukrainian army. That doesn't really 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:36.320 seem like a fair trade. Why would that be on 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:37.640 the table at all. 0:03:37.800 --> 0:03:41.280 That kind of condition where you restrict the scale of 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:44.760 a country's forces or the weapons that they have, is 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:47.000 what you get normally when a country is defeated in war, 0:03:47.480 --> 0:03:49.680 not in a negotiated peace agreement. It's the kind of 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:51.240 thing that you would see after World War One or 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:53.920 World War two. But what we know, of course is 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.000 Ukraine has not been defeated, and in many ways it's 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:57.119 told in its ground quite well. 0:03:57.440 --> 0:04:00.480 So I also understand it includes handing back most of 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:04.920 Russia's frozen assets, to which the likes of course Frances 0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:10.720 Emmanuel Macron and Italy's Georgia Maloney have opposed. How has 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:14.840 the war altered the balance of power between Russia, the 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:17.599 US and of course European leaders as well. 0:04:17.960 --> 0:04:20.680 The question of assets is a curious one because with 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:24.600 the sanctions, we've put penalties on Russia for its illegal act, 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:28.320 and part of the penalties is involved seizing the Russian assets. 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:32.680 There is a serious legal question about freezing the assets 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:36.760 and then disposing of the assets. The risk, and it's uncertain, 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:38.600 is that if you dispose of them, you could become 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:41.280 legally liable for them in the future when peace resumes. 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:43.839 So even though countries are feeling very angry right now 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.080 at Russia and they want to use these frozen assets, 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:48.880 there could be a payback or a penalty laid down 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:52.320 the track. In terms of the cohesiveness of Europe, it's 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:55.679 challenging right now. But as you probably would have noticed 0:04:55.720 --> 0:05:00.839 overnight that as the peace talks in Moscow they've grounded 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:04.760 to another deadlock, we're seeing an increase of European country 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:07.040 saying we will now give more money to the Ukraine 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:10.240 with regards to weaponry. And that expansion is not just 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:12.680 with the European countries with a billion dollars, it's with 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:15.440 Australia and New Zealand as well, And so overnight New 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:17.400 Zealand's have said that we will spend an extra fifteen 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:20.600 million dollars to support Ukraine and its military efforts. And 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:23.520 that's on top of the humanitarian assistant and legal assistance 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:26.760 and other types of help that we give. So countries 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:30.360 are digging deeper to support Ukraine. They're not weakening right now. 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:32.280 When it comes to the frozen assets. 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:36.560 When talking about international law, is this unprecedented it's not unprecedented. 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:39.440 It happened in the nineteen eighties when Iran and America 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:42.800 had a difficulty and their assets were then seized and 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:44.760 attempts were made to see quest them. It ended up 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:48.680 in a very large, protracted legal dispute because it's one 0:05:48.680 --> 0:05:51.000 thing to freeze the asset. It's another thing to liquidate 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:53.400 it and then use it for another purpose. It's still 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:57.640 someone else's asset, and so there's no clear legal answer 0:05:57.640 --> 0:06:00.440 on this, although both sides are saying that they have 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:02.240 an answer, which is probably overstated. 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:03.840 What should be the answer. 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:07.640 The answer is that there should be a penalty for 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:11.040 any country which legally invades another country, and there should 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:14.200 be accountability for those crimes and for that act. But 0:06:14.279 --> 0:06:16.600 increasingly what you're seeing with international law is that we're 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:19.800 moving away from penalties and accountability just so we can 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:23.120 get peace. And so we're seeing that also with regards 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:25.440 to the regards of peace plant which is a good deal, 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:27.520 but part of the deal is that there we no 0:06:27.560 --> 0:06:31.919 accountability for the crimes committed by either the State of 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:35.440 Israel or by hamas alleged crimes. But you're seeing that 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:38.960 same approach with regards to the Ukraine that to get peace, 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:42.839 that you'll push accountability to one side, and potentially the 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:47.360 costs of reconstruction as well. And so everything's got murky, 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:49.920 and we're no longer in a principled world. We're now 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:51.120 in a negotiated outcome. 0:06:57.760 --> 0:07:02.839 He also said this, we are not cleaning to go 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:05.799 to war with Europe. I have already spoken about this 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:09.560 one hundred times. But if Europe suddenly wants to go 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:14.480 to war with us and starts, we are ready right now. 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:18.760 Well shortly after the meeting ended, a top Russian official 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:24.040 posted a single word on social media productive punctuated by 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:26.120 a dove and an olive branch. 0:07:28.640 --> 0:07:32.520 When it comes to consequences and penalties, though, what do 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:34.040 you think is the right way forward? 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:35.560 Because we saw and this is. 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:39.960 A vast generalization I'm thinking of here, but Nazi Germany 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:45.360 obviously was born from the smoldering ashes of World War 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:49.480 One and the Treaty of Versailles and the penalties that 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:52.640 were put upon the German people as a nation. 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:56.679 So what would be a middle ground here? 0:07:57.400 --> 0:08:00.320 A middle ground would have been the International Criminal Court, 0:08:00.200 --> 0:08:02.520 at which we created at the end of the nineteen nineties, 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:06.000 and the assumption was was that no one, no matter 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:08.080 how big or small they were, would be held accountable 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:11.040 for the crimes that they committed, including eventually the crime 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:14.600 of aggression. And we all signed up for that, well, 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:17.160 most countries understood that they signed up for that. But 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:19.040 by the time we get to the twenty first century, 0:08:19.120 --> 0:08:21.520 you find that these rules only apply to the small players, 0:08:21.560 --> 0:08:23.880 not to the large players. And so there's a degree 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:26.800 of impunity in the world right now where countries like Russia, 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:29.600 China and the United States will more or less do 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:32.319 what they want without being held to account and that 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:35.520 is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. And that 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:38.040 makes it difficult for small countries like New Zealand, which 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:40.720 rely on a rules based order, or Australia as well, 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:43.959 because then you find that countries feel if they've put 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:46.040 enough power, they will do what they want to do. 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:48.480 And then we've got the additional risk that if we 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:51.960 make a bad peace steel now with Ukraine, one, you're 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.520 only going to make it difficult for the next generation 0:08:54.600 --> 0:08:57.120 and they'll be bitter and angry and come back. And 0:08:57.200 --> 0:08:59.480 two you've got the precedent problem where other countries will 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:02.080 follow the same sane route. I think that they can 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:04.280 take someone else's country without repercussions. 0:09:04.559 --> 0:09:06.560 Yeah, and I mean thinking of that as well. 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:10.000 And in terms of an international rules based order, do 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:12.880 you think we'll ever be able to see another Nuremberg 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:14.280 trials for example? 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:18.000 I mean that was or have we since? 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:22.040 Really we saw some impressive trials with regard to the 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:27.760 former Yugoslavia Serial leone Rwanda. We've had some individual cases 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:30.080 before the International Criminal Court, but they've all been minor 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:33.720 then none of them have involved the superpowers. We had 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:37.840 a very positive period of growth in the nineteen nineties, 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:40.880 but we've seen two decades of going backwards. It will 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:43.400 take a long time to rebuild that kind of confidence 0:09:43.440 --> 0:09:45.320 and good faith until you can get to that point 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:48.800 where all countries are accountable right now, where it's about 0:09:48.800 --> 0:09:51.160 trying to defeend the architecture that we've got, let alone 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:52.280 trying to build new ones. 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:56.880 What do you think Russia's stated conditions for peace, you know, 0:09:57.000 --> 0:10:01.960 from NATO guarantees to recognition of con over occupied territories. 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.880 What does that reveal about Moscow's endgame? 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:09.600 They are looking for a victory that They've been very 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:14.040 clear from the beginning that non membership of NATO is 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:18.800 critical to them where it's expanded, and it's showing an 0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:23.120 increasingly strong putin as with regards to the demands of 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:25.760 a territory, because now they demanding territory that they haven't 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:28.520 even conquered, let alone what they've a legally annex. They're 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:30.040 now saying, we actually want the more than what we 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:33.640 even hold, and this would suggest that they're feeling confident 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:36.360 in what they can negotiate for. They're not on a 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:40.280 back foot, and you're seeing that the level of threat 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:43.720 continue to grow, and so the retoric about being prepared 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:45.840 for war with Europe at the same time as making 0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:49.559 excessive demands suggests that they are not in a weak position. 0:10:50.280 --> 0:10:53.760 What kind of security guarantees are there left for Ukraine 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:58.000 bar a full NATO membership you could try to go for? 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:02.880 A to approach is one you have troops which are 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:05.360 non aligned which would be able to be positioned in 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:08.920 Ukraine in a kind of like a buffer zone, and 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:11.640 that would mean non NATO countries of which you might 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:15.640 find that New Zealand could become a potential applicant. The 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:17.719 alternative approach is what we did with Belgium in the 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:21.080 nineteenth century and the whole country is declared neutral and 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.280 other countries guarantee its security. But of course, as you 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:27.640 may recall the problem with doing that with Belgium, and 0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:30.400 is that led to World War One because another country 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:33.080 just has to go through it eventually in nineteen fourteen, 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:36.640 and so you could declare Ukraine neutral, but whether it 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:40.199 was honored as it was not honored in nineteen ninety 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.960 four is a big question mark. And right now very 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:45.720 free countries, especially in Europe, have faith in the word 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:46.440 of mister Putin. 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:51.520 What do you make of European leader's reactions to Putin's calls, 0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:54.400 and you know, the other day he did mention something 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:57.280 along the lines of they're ready to go to war 0:11:57.360 --> 0:11:59.000 with Europe steadfast. 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:03.040 I think think Europe is becoming galvanized in a unique 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:07.400 point of history. It's been pushed by two different factors. 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:09.520 On the one hand, you've got the threat of Russia 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:12.720 and on the other hand you've got the uncertainty of America. 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:15.240 And I think for a long time Europe has relied 0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:17.320 upon America to do all the lift or the heavy 0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:20.120 weight or the heavy carrying. But now they've got to 0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:22.559 do it for themselves, and they're showing a greater independence 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:23.600 and willingness to do it. 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.560 And do you think Putin has underestimated their ability to 0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:28.520 band together and. 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:31.880 Do this, Yes, I do, I do, But I think 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:34.640 the Europeans now face what they can see is a 0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:38.199 very severe threat on their border, and they are galvanizing 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:40.599 in a way which we haven't seen for many generations. 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:44.760 That and galvanizing when you say, putting more money towards 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:46.920 Ukraine's sovereignty. 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:52.239 So yesterday they pledged a further billion dollars in military assistance. 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:55.559 That's on top of the additional money that they've already given. 0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:59.840 And then you will find also that they're rapidly developing, 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.520 building and reinforcing their own military, and so military budgets 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:07.880 across Europe have all expanded rapidly in recent times, and 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.079 so they're much more conscious than they would that they've 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.000 got to look after their own defense and they cannot 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:15.440 rely on They want American help, but they're at a 0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:17.760 point right now where they're recognizing that mister Trump is 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:20.720 not always the most stable of partners, and so they're 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.920 willing to go a step further for themselves. Countries like 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:26.280 New Zealand and Australia are in the same boat, and 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:29.520 we too are increasing our military spend. And this is 0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:32.319 a difficult thing to do because every dollar you spend 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:34.920 on a piece of military kit is a dollar you 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:37.640 don't spend on education, or a dollar you don't spend 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:42.000 on housing or on schools, And so that opportunity cost 0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:44.920 is hard, but the risk externally is great. 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.120 You don't know what the Kremlin's doing. I can tell 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:55.800 you that they had a reasonably good meeting with President 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:58.240 put We're going to find out. It's a war that 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:01.240 should have never been started, and were if I were president, 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:03.240 we had a rigged election. If I were president, that 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:06.480 war would have never happened. It's a terrible thing. But 0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:08.480 I thought they had a very good meeting yesterday with 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:12.800 the President Putin. We'll see what happens. It's you know, 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:15.360 when I was in this office and I talked you 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:18.560 about no cards, I said, you have no cards? That 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:20.520 was the time to settle. I thought that would have 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:23.760 been a much better time to settle, But their wisdom 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:25.880 decided to do that. They have a lot of things 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:26.840 against them right now. 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:32.440 I read a piece in the New York Times analyzing 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:35.760 the Ukrainian recruitment ads and. 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:37.800 How they have evolved over the course of the war. 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.840 Right, so the beginning saw wars, you know, soldiers fighting 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:45.040 zombie like figures, a battle crier or call to arms 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:48.160 type of thing. Since then they've kind of progressed into 0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:50.760 playing on people's pride to defend their country. You know, 0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:53.800 an officer on the phone talking to his mother, she's 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:55.360 proud that he's enlisting. 0:14:55.800 --> 0:14:56.600 That kind of thing. 0:14:56.640 --> 0:15:00.320 And new ads don't even show weapons or officers iddling 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:03.520 babies and you know, playing with dogs and things like that, 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:07.440 sitting on a beach operating a drone. What do you 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:13.760 think this says about enlisting in Ukraine but also the 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:17.720 course of I think it's an interesting if you step 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:23.200 back and look at the evolvement of these ads. Are 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:27.840 they perhaps finding it quite difficult to garner that national 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:30.960 pride or do you think that the Ukrainians are doing 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:32.560 quite well in that respect. 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.800 Both sides are under stress in this war, but one 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:42.120 of the under economic stress, under military stress, and they're 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:45.800 under manpower stress. I used the word manpower loosely. The 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.040 amount of soldiers that you've got to replace each month 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:50.960 is over twenty thousand, and trying to keep this kind 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:53.800 of figure going on a continue rolling basis is a 0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:57.320 very difficult ask and so Ukraine itself has not got 0:15:57.320 --> 0:15:59.600 a problem with people. Young men often will try to 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:02.240 avoid conscription and they will try not to do their service, 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:04.760 and so you've got to find a way where you 0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:08.080 can make it attractive for them. But it's unsustainable and 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:11.000 belong to if you keep feeding young people into these 0:16:11.040 --> 0:16:14.400 military machines. The Russians don't have quite the same restraints. 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:17.320 Ukraine does have a restraint in miteria. So they've got 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.480 to find ways which it looks more appealing to the 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:21.960 young men and young women rather than what it is, 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:25.160 which is often a very terrible situation. But yes it's 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:27.120 a concern and they have to work hard trying to 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:27.960 keep their numbers up. 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:32.040 Now we know that talks have stalled. What happens if 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.000 they just completely collapse. 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:38.280 Well, we go back to the battlefront, and the traditional 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.600 pattern of wars is that you try to negotiate until 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.520 one side gets an upper hand. And the way that 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:45.800 they're going to get an upper hand is that they're 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:48.480 either going to grind their way through, which seems unlikely, 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:51.000 especially if the new weaponry continues to come through from 0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:54.120 Europe and its supporters, or you try to change the 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:57.040 tactics or the weapons are being used to get that advantage. 0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:00.840 That's where the risk is because different are used on 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:05.439 the battlefield, or the battlefield expand rapidly into say Russia 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:09.960 will hypothetically, say a long range misself from Ukraine hit Moscow. 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:13.960 Then things can go sideways quite quickly. It's contained at 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:17.600 the moment, but it's fragile, and the risk is that 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:19.440 to try to get that breakthrough, they will try new 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:21.880 tactics and new weapons which could make things split out 0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:22.360 of control. 0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:26.480 What do you think the likelihood of Putin actually beginning 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:29.160 a war where Europe is it's. 0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:31.760 A very irrational thing to do. I don't think it's 0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:34.600 a likely thing to do. But often the larger wars 0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:38.880 happen through irrational or accidental methods or mistakes, And when 0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:41.280 you've got armies which arebuptressing each other and bumping into 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:44.520 each other on a regular basis, you escalate those risks 0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:49.040 each day. A war with Europe is potentially the Third 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:50.879 World War. I don't think that's going to happen. I 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:54.600 think that's quite unlikely. It's in no one's interests. It's irrational, 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:59.320 but in war, mistakes happen, and when tensions escalate, the 0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:00.840 risks multiplied. 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:03.560 Thanks for joining us, AL, You're welcome, Chelsea. 0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:09.760 That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:13.680 can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 0:18:13.720 --> 0:18:17.800 at enzidherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:21.280 produced by Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who is also 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:25.960 our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:29.600 on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.680 in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.