1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: Kiyota. 2 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Russia is 4 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 2: apparently ready to go to. 5 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: War with Europe. Well, that's according to its president. 6 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin met with US negotiators this week for about 7 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: five hours to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. He's 8 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 2: accused European leaders of trying to scover the peace talks 9 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 2: with the US, saying they're tweaks to a plan to 10 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 2: end the war were unacceptable. The Kremlin has apparently accepted 11 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 2: some proposals to end it, although latest talks. 12 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 1: Haven't yielded a breakthrough. 13 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 2: Today on the Front Page, University of Waikato international law 14 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 2: professor Al Gillespie's with us to run through what could 15 00:00:54,840 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 2: happen next. Our first, tell me about this twenty eight 16 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,680 Speaker 2: point plan that Russia and the US have supposedly agreed 17 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 2: to slash been talking about. 18 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 3: It's difficult to work out which plan we're talking about 19 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 3: in a sequence right now. It starts out with a 20 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 3: twenty eight point plan that has effectively a broad agreement 21 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:21,400 Speaker 3: between America and Russia. It then turns to a nineteen 22 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 3: point plan which is effectively between America and Ukraine. It 23 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 3: then goes back to Moscow and it's somewhere between the 24 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 3: twenty eight points and the nineteen points. But it's coming 25 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 3: down to a few areas we can't get agreement on, 26 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 3: which primarily are about territory, the security, force, and accountability. 27 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 2: Well, it includes banning Ukraine from ever joining NATO and 28 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 2: halving the size of the Ukrainian army. First off, what's 29 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 2: the benefit of Ukraine joining NATO. 30 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 3: Ukraine has a difficult relationship with Russia, and this is 31 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 3: now in a full scale war. Well, there is very 32 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 3: little trust or good faith between them. There was an 33 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 3: agreement in nineteen ninety four when Ukraine gave up to 34 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 3: nuclear weapons that its territorial sovereignty and its integrity would 35 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 3: be respected by Russia, America and Britain, and that agreement 36 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 3: was not worth the paper it was printed on, and 37 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 3: so becaurse of the Russian invasion, they now feel that 38 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:23,079 Speaker 3: they need something stronger than just to promise of mister 39 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 3: Putin to defend whatever is remaining of the country. If 40 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 3: they go for a collective agreement, it would mean that 41 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 3: an attack against Ukraine would be an attack against all 42 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 3: members who signed that agreement, and that could either be 43 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 3: European countries or it could be NATO itself. But mister 44 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 3: Putin is clear he doesn't want Ukraine to be linked 45 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 3: in any defensive alliance with any other country, which means 46 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 3: it would be perpetually very weak and vulnerable to another attack. 47 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 2: So the significance of joining NATO would mean that you've 48 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 2: just automatically got the backing of all of its members. 49 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 3: Strictly, an attack against one is an attack against all, 50 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 3: so that means that all twin eight countries would respond 51 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 3: at the same time. So if Britain was hit by Russia, 52 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 3: the other twenty seven countries would come in and respond 53 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 3: against the aggressor. And missus Zelenski would like that same 54 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 3: guarantee given to his country because he feels that if 55 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 3: you've just got a promise without security of other countries, 56 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 3: you're vulnerable to another attank. That vulnerability is increased when 57 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 3: you get demands such as reductions or restrictions on the 58 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 3: size of the military that Ukraine may possess or the 59 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 3: weapons that they can have in their arsenal. 60 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let's talk about that. 61 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 2: Halving the size of the Ukrainian army. That doesn't really 62 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 2: seem like a fair trade. Why would that be on 63 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 2: the table at all. 64 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 3: That kind of condition where you restrict the scale of 65 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 3: a country's forces or the weapons that they have, is 66 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 3: what you get normally when a country is defeated in war, 67 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 3: not in a negotiated peace agreement. It's the kind of 68 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 3: thing that you would see after World War One or 69 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 3: World War two. But what we know, of course is 70 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 3: Ukraine has not been defeated, and in many ways it's 71 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:57,119 Speaker 3: told in its ground quite well. 72 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 2: So I also understand it includes handing back most of 73 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 2: Russia's frozen assets, to which the likes of course Frances 74 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 2: Emmanuel Macron and Italy's Georgia Maloney have opposed. How has 75 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 2: the war altered the balance of power between Russia, the 76 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,599 Speaker 2: US and of course European leaders as well. 77 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 3: The question of assets is a curious one because with 78 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 3: the sanctions, we've put penalties on Russia for its illegal act, 79 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 3: and part of the penalties is involved seizing the Russian assets. 80 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 3: There is a serious legal question about freezing the assets 81 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 3: and then disposing of the assets. The risk, and it's uncertain, 82 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:38,600 Speaker 3: is that if you dispose of them, you could become 83 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 3: legally liable for them in the future when peace resumes. 84 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 3: So even though countries are feeling very angry right now 85 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 3: at Russia and they want to use these frozen assets, 86 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 3: there could be a payback or a penalty laid down 87 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 3: the track. In terms of the cohesiveness of Europe, it's 88 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,679 Speaker 3: challenging right now. But as you probably would have noticed 89 00:04:55,720 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 3: overnight that as the peace talks in Moscow they've grounded 90 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 3: to another deadlock, we're seeing an increase of European country 91 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 3: saying we will now give more money to the Ukraine 92 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 3: with regards to weaponry. And that expansion is not just 93 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 3: with the European countries with a billion dollars, it's with 94 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 3: Australia and New Zealand as well, And so overnight New 95 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 3: Zealand's have said that we will spend an extra fifteen 96 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 3: million dollars to support Ukraine and its military efforts. And 97 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 3: that's on top of the humanitarian assistant and legal assistance 98 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 3: and other types of help that we give. So countries 99 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 3: are digging deeper to support Ukraine. They're not weakening right now. 100 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 1: When it comes to the frozen assets. 101 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 2: When talking about international law, is this unprecedented it's not unprecedented. 102 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 3: It happened in the nineteen eighties when Iran and America 103 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 3: had a difficulty and their assets were then seized and 104 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 3: attempts were made to see quest them. It ended up 105 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 3: in a very large, protracted legal dispute because it's one 106 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 3: thing to freeze the asset. It's another thing to liquidate 107 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 3: it and then use it for another purpose. It's still 108 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 3: someone else's asset, and so there's no clear legal answer 109 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 3: on this, although both sides are saying that they have 110 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 3: an answer, which is probably overstated. 111 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 1: What should be the answer. 112 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 3: The answer is that there should be a penalty for 113 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,040 Speaker 3: any country which legally invades another country, and there should 114 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 3: be accountability for those crimes and for that act. But 115 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 3: increasingly what you're seeing with international law is that we're 116 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 3: moving away from penalties and accountability just so we can 117 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 3: get peace. And so we're seeing that also with regards 118 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 3: to the regards of peace plant which is a good deal, 119 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 3: but part of the deal is that there we no 120 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:31,919 Speaker 3: accountability for the crimes committed by either the State of 121 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 3: Israel or by hamas alleged crimes. But you're seeing that 122 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 3: same approach with regards to the Ukraine that to get peace, 123 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 3: that you'll push accountability to one side, and potentially the 124 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 3: costs of reconstruction as well. And so everything's got murky, 125 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:49,920 Speaker 3: and we're no longer in a principled world. We're now 126 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 3: in a negotiated outcome. 127 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 4: He also said this, we are not cleaning to go 128 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:05,799 Speaker 4: to war with Europe. I have already spoken about this 129 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 4: one hundred times. But if Europe suddenly wants to go 130 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 4: to war with us and starts, we are ready right now. 131 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 5: Well shortly after the meeting ended, a top Russian official 132 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 5: posted a single word on social media productive punctuated by 133 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 5: a dove and an olive branch. 134 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 2: When it comes to consequences and penalties, though, what do 135 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 2: you think is the right way forward? 136 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: Because we saw and this is. 137 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 2: A vast generalization I'm thinking of here, but Nazi Germany 138 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 2: obviously was born from the smoldering ashes of World War 139 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 2: One and the Treaty of Versailles and the penalties that 140 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 2: were put upon the German people as a nation. 141 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,679 Speaker 1: So what would be a middle ground here? 142 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 3: A middle ground would have been the International Criminal Court, 143 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 3: at which we created at the end of the nineteen nineties, 144 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 3: and the assumption was was that no one, no matter 145 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 3: how big or small they were, would be held accountable 146 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 3: for the crimes that they committed, including eventually the crime 147 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 3: of aggression. And we all signed up for that, well, 148 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 3: most countries understood that they signed up for that. But 149 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 3: by the time we get to the twenty first century, 150 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 3: you find that these rules only apply to the small players, 151 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 3: not to the large players. And so there's a degree 152 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 3: of impunity in the world right now where countries like Russia, 153 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 3: China and the United States will more or less do 154 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,319 Speaker 3: what they want without being held to account and that 155 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 3: is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. And that 156 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 3: makes it difficult for small countries like New Zealand, which 157 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 3: rely on a rules based order, or Australia as well, 158 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,959 Speaker 3: because then you find that countries feel if they've put 159 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 3: enough power, they will do what they want to do. 160 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 3: And then we've got the additional risk that if we 161 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 3: make a bad peace steel now with Ukraine, one, you're 162 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 3: only going to make it difficult for the next generation 163 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 3: and they'll be bitter and angry and come back. And 164 00:08:57,200 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 3: two you've got the precedent problem where other countries will 165 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 3: follow the same sane route. I think that they can 166 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 3: take someone else's country without repercussions. 167 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:06,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean thinking of that as well. 168 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 2: And in terms of an international rules based order, do 169 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 2: you think we'll ever be able to see another Nuremberg 170 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 2: trials for example? 171 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: I mean that was or have we since? 172 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 3: Really we saw some impressive trials with regard to the 173 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 3: former Yugoslavia Serial leone Rwanda. We've had some individual cases 174 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 3: before the International Criminal Court, but they've all been minor 175 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 3: then none of them have involved the superpowers. We had 176 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 3: a very positive period of growth in the nineteen nineties, 177 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 3: but we've seen two decades of going backwards. It will 178 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 3: take a long time to rebuild that kind of confidence 179 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 3: and good faith until you can get to that point 180 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 3: where all countries are accountable right now, where it's about 181 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 3: trying to defeend the architecture that we've got, let alone 182 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 3: trying to build new ones. 183 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 2: What do you think Russia's stated conditions for peace, you know, 184 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:01,960 Speaker 2: from NATO guarantees to recognition of con over occupied territories. 185 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: What does that reveal about Moscow's endgame? 186 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 3: They are looking for a victory that They've been very 187 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 3: clear from the beginning that non membership of NATO is 188 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 3: critical to them where it's expanded, and it's showing an 189 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 3: increasingly strong putin as with regards to the demands of 190 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 3: a territory, because now they demanding territory that they haven't 191 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 3: even conquered, let alone what they've a legally annex. They're 192 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 3: now saying, we actually want the more than what we 193 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 3: even hold, and this would suggest that they're feeling confident 194 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 3: in what they can negotiate for. They're not on a 195 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 3: back foot, and you're seeing that the level of threat 196 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 3: continue to grow, and so the retoric about being prepared 197 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 3: for war with Europe at the same time as making 198 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 3: excessive demands suggests that they are not in a weak position. 199 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 2: What kind of security guarantees are there left for Ukraine 200 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 2: bar a full NATO membership you could try to go for? 201 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 3: A to approach is one you have troops which are 202 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 3: non aligned which would be able to be positioned in 203 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 3: Ukraine in a kind of like a buffer zone, and 204 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 3: that would mean non NATO countries of which you might 205 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 3: find that New Zealand could become a potential applicant. The 206 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:17,719 Speaker 3: alternative approach is what we did with Belgium in the 207 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 3: nineteenth century and the whole country is declared neutral and 208 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 3: other countries guarantee its security. But of course, as you 209 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 3: may recall the problem with doing that with Belgium, and 210 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 3: is that led to World War One because another country 211 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 3: just has to go through it eventually in nineteen fourteen, 212 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 3: and so you could declare Ukraine neutral, but whether it 213 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,199 Speaker 3: was honored as it was not honored in nineteen ninety 214 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 3: four is a big question mark. And right now very 215 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 3: free countries, especially in Europe, have faith in the word 216 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 3: of mister Putin. 217 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 2: What do you make of European leader's reactions to Putin's calls, 218 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 2: and you know, the other day he did mention something 219 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 2: along the lines of they're ready to go to war 220 00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 2: with Europe steadfast. 221 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 3: I think think Europe is becoming galvanized in a unique 222 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 3: point of history. It's been pushed by two different factors. 223 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 3: On the one hand, you've got the threat of Russia 224 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 3: and on the other hand you've got the uncertainty of America. 225 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 3: And I think for a long time Europe has relied 226 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,320 Speaker 3: upon America to do all the lift or the heavy 227 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 3: weight or the heavy carrying. But now they've got to 228 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,559 Speaker 3: do it for themselves, and they're showing a greater independence 229 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 3: and willingness to do it. 230 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 2: And do you think Putin has underestimated their ability to 231 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 2: band together and. 232 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 3: Do this, Yes, I do, I do, But I think 233 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 3: the Europeans now face what they can see is a 234 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:38,199 Speaker 3: very severe threat on their border, and they are galvanizing 235 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:40,599 Speaker 3: in a way which we haven't seen for many generations. 236 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 2: That and galvanizing when you say, putting more money towards 237 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 2: Ukraine's sovereignty. 238 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:52,239 Speaker 3: So yesterday they pledged a further billion dollars in military assistance. 239 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:55,559 Speaker 3: That's on top of the additional money that they've already given. 240 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 3: And then you will find also that they're rapidly developing, 241 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 3: building and reinforcing their own military, and so military budgets 242 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 3: across Europe have all expanded rapidly in recent times, and 243 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,079 Speaker 3: so they're much more conscious than they would that they've 244 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 3: got to look after their own defense and they cannot 245 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 3: rely on They want American help, but they're at a 246 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 3: point right now where they're recognizing that mister Trump is 247 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 3: not always the most stable of partners, and so they're 248 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 3: willing to go a step further for themselves. Countries like 249 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 3: New Zealand and Australia are in the same boat, and 250 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 3: we too are increasing our military spend. And this is 251 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,319 Speaker 3: a difficult thing to do because every dollar you spend 252 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 3: on a piece of military kit is a dollar you 253 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 3: don't spend on education, or a dollar you don't spend 254 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 3: on housing or on schools, And so that opportunity cost 255 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 3: is hard, but the risk externally is great. 256 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 6: You don't know what the Kremlin's doing. I can tell 257 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 6: you that they had a reasonably good meeting with President 258 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 6: put We're going to find out. It's a war that 259 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 6: should have never been started, and were if I were president, 260 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 6: we had a rigged election. If I were president, that 261 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 6: war would have never happened. It's a terrible thing. But 262 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 6: I thought they had a very good meeting yesterday with 263 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 6: the President Putin. We'll see what happens. It's you know, 264 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 6: when I was in this office and I talked you 265 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 6: about no cards, I said, you have no cards? That 266 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 6: was the time to settle. I thought that would have 267 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 6: been a much better time to settle, But their wisdom 268 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 6: decided to do that. They have a lot of things 269 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 6: against them right now. 270 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 2: I read a piece in the New York Times analyzing 271 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 2: the Ukrainian recruitment ads and. 272 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: How they have evolved over the course of the war. 273 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 2: Right, so the beginning saw wars, you know, soldiers fighting 274 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 2: zombie like figures, a battle crier or call to arms 275 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 2: type of thing. Since then they've kind of progressed into 276 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 2: playing on people's pride to defend their country. You know, 277 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 2: an officer on the phone talking to his mother, she's 278 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 2: proud that he's enlisting. 279 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: That kind of thing. 280 00:14:56,640 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 2: And new ads don't even show weapons or officers iddling 281 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 2: babies and you know, playing with dogs and things like that, 282 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 2: sitting on a beach operating a drone. What do you 283 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 2: think this says about enlisting in Ukraine but also the 284 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 2: course of I think it's an interesting if you step 285 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 2: back and look at the evolvement of these ads. Are 286 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 2: they perhaps finding it quite difficult to garner that national 287 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 2: pride or do you think that the Ukrainians are doing 288 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 2: quite well in that respect. 289 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 3: Both sides are under stress in this war, but one 290 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 3: of the under economic stress, under military stress, and they're 291 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 3: under manpower stress. I used the word manpower loosely. The 292 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 3: amount of soldiers that you've got to replace each month 293 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 3: is over twenty thousand, and trying to keep this kind 294 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 3: of figure going on a continue rolling basis is a 295 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 3: very difficult ask and so Ukraine itself has not got 296 00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 3: a problem with people. Young men often will try to 297 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 3: avoid conscription and they will try not to do their service, 298 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 3: and so you've got to find a way where you 299 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 3: can make it attractive for them. But it's unsustainable and 300 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 3: belong to if you keep feeding young people into these 301 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 3: military machines. The Russians don't have quite the same restraints. 302 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 3: Ukraine does have a restraint in miteria. So they've got 303 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 3: to find ways which it looks more appealing to the 304 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 3: young men and young women rather than what it is, 305 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 3: which is often a very terrible situation. But yes it's 306 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 3: a concern and they have to work hard trying to 307 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 3: keep their numbers up. 308 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 2: Now we know that talks have stalled. What happens if 309 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 2: they just completely collapse. 310 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 3: Well, we go back to the battlefront, and the traditional 311 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 3: pattern of wars is that you try to negotiate until 312 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 3: one side gets an upper hand. And the way that 313 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 3: they're going to get an upper hand is that they're 314 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 3: either going to grind their way through, which seems unlikely, 315 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 3: especially if the new weaponry continues to come through from 316 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 3: Europe and its supporters, or you try to change the 317 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 3: tactics or the weapons are being used to get that advantage. 318 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 3: That's where the risk is because different are used on 319 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:05,439 Speaker 3: the battlefield, or the battlefield expand rapidly into say Russia 320 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 3: will hypothetically, say a long range misself from Ukraine hit Moscow. 321 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 3: Then things can go sideways quite quickly. It's contained at 322 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 3: the moment, but it's fragile, and the risk is that 323 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 3: to try to get that breakthrough, they will try new 324 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:21,880 Speaker 3: tactics and new weapons which could make things split out 325 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:22,360 Speaker 3: of control. 326 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 2: What do you think the likelihood of Putin actually beginning 327 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,160 Speaker 2: a war where Europe is it's. 328 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 3: A very irrational thing to do. I don't think it's 329 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 3: a likely thing to do. But often the larger wars 330 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:38,880 Speaker 3: happen through irrational or accidental methods or mistakes, And when 331 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 3: you've got armies which arebuptressing each other and bumping into 332 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 3: each other on a regular basis, you escalate those risks 333 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 3: each day. A war with Europe is potentially the Third 334 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 3: World War. I don't think that's going to happen. I 335 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 3: think that's quite unlikely. It's in no one's interests. It's irrational, 336 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 3: but in war, mistakes happen, and when tensions escalate, the 337 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 3: risks multiplied. 338 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, AL, You're welcome, Chelsea. 339 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You 340 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 341 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 2: at enzidherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is 342 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 2: produced by Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who is also 343 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 2: our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page 344 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune 345 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 2: in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.