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Speaker 1: Now the Reserve Bank, speaking of which it's going to

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Speaker 1: meet for the last time this seear next week to

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Speaker 1: review the official cash rate, and most economists are now

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Speaker 1: picking a cut of fifty basis points. Liam dan As

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Speaker 1: The Herald's Business editor at large ALM get a Heather

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Speaker 1: seventy five basis points off the cards.

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Speaker 2: Now, A, it does seem to be. Yeah, like I

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Speaker 2: think we mentioned last week, you know, I could see

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Speaker 2: some logic for getting down to where we're going fast,

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Speaker 2: but I think that the consensus is that the economy,

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Speaker 2: just some of some of the economic data that's coming

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Speaker 2: in the past three or four weeks, at unemployment not

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Speaker 2: being quite as bad as expected, things suggest that fifty,

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Speaker 2: you know, is sort of a big cat. Really, seventy

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Speaker 2: five is slightly panic cut, and so you know, you

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Speaker 2: wouldn't want to send a message that we're panicking or

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Speaker 2: that there was a crisis. So that's the odds. But

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Speaker 2: it is the big monetary policy statement, this one. So

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Speaker 2: this is the one where we get all the documents

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Speaker 2: in the forecast. So there'll be actually a lot of

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Speaker 2: interest in you know, because okay, we know that we're

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Speaker 2: going to cut down to four point twenty five next

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Speaker 2: Where are we going next year? How low is this

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Speaker 2: going to end up? Those are the things that we're

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Speaker 2: going to be looking for, I guess. So you know,

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Speaker 2: as much as you've had some views on this in

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Speaker 2: the past, as much as we can trust trust the

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Speaker 2: Reserve banks forecast for where they're going, I guess is

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Speaker 2: the issue.

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Speaker 1: The thing is, though, Liam, I mean, the employment numbers

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Speaker 1: seem to be holding up quite well, but then you

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Speaker 1: listen to Treasury and they are revising what's going to

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Speaker 1: happen with the government's fiscal situation, and it's like way

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Speaker 1: worse than they thought, so they've got to take that

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Speaker 1: into account as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that looked pretty rough, and I mean activity isn't

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Speaker 2: expected to pick up that fast. That's the trouble. It's

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Speaker 2: you know, this survived to twenty five thing. Well, A

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Speaker 2: and Z had some quarterly forecasts out earlier in the week,

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Speaker 2: and you know they're talking about the recovery rarely is

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Speaker 2: this from the second half of twenty twenty five, And

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Speaker 2: it might be all up only about one point one

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Speaker 2: percent growth next year, which is pretty anemic. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you know, sure it's good to have growth. We've had

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Speaker 2: had basically a year of recess. But you know, if

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Speaker 2: you're expecting an economic boom coming, you're going to be disappointed.

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Speaker 2: So it doesn't you know, there therefore casts that there

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Speaker 2: are some good things happening. There's some some strong dairy

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Speaker 2: prices and all that sort of stuff, but that takes

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Speaker 2: a while to get through the economy, so you know,

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Speaker 2: it's not doesn't all suddenly come right after the summer,

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Speaker 2: and that of course, as Treasury will be, they're sort

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Speaker 2: of prepping us, i think, for the HAIFU for the

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Speaker 2: half year accounts with a speech basically letting us know

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Speaker 2: that it's not booming, and that doesn't it means the

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Speaker 2: text takes not going to be fantastic and so yeah,

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Speaker 2: you've got a factor all that in. But yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think we're going to see them cut fifty and maybe

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Speaker 2: suggest fifty again in February and then down to maybe

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Speaker 2: three point five three point twenty five as a sort

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Speaker 2: of baseline.

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Speaker 1: How good, Liam, Thank you appreciate it, Liam Dan, the

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Speaker 1: Herald's Business editor at lunch. For more from Heather Duplessy

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Speaker 1: Allen Drive, listen live to news talks.

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Speaker 2: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast

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Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio,