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Speaker 1: Heather Due to CELA, New.

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Speaker 2: Zealand's energy troubles are getting worse. Gas supply dropped twelve

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Speaker 2: percent in the March quarter. That's twelve percent down compared

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Speaker 2: to the same time last year. This is the lowest

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Speaker 2: quarterly net production since nineteen eighty five. Now gas was

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Speaker 2: down because of the decrease in overall production, but also

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Speaker 2: a planned outage in the poor Hookura gas field, and

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Speaker 2: this has led to a staggering ninety nine percent rise

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Speaker 2: in coal being burnt for electricity. Also, greenhouse gas emissions

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Speaker 2: are up twenty one point five percent. John Kidd is

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Speaker 2: the director and head of research at Analytica and with

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Speaker 2: US Now, hey John, heaven hell are we in trouble.

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Speaker 1: We're in the street system. We have a structurally reshort

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Speaker 1: of entergy full stop. So it's often lost on people

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Speaker 1: that we don't have enough energy in the country to

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Speaker 1: be able to support our demand, so we do lie

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Speaker 1: on international markets. Anyway, Think about the CARDI your drive.

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Speaker 1: There's nothing in the fuel tenth of that car. Those

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Speaker 1: of US drive petrol engines, which is made domestically, so

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Speaker 1: we import energy and was short as we are increasingly short.

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Speaker 1: More broadly, then we need to import more energy to

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Speaker 1: keep ourselves fed from day to day. So your question

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Speaker 1: is how are we in trouble. Well, you know, we're

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Speaker 1: becoming shorter of indigenous energy and therefore we're having to

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Speaker 1: rely on international energy more.

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Speaker 2: And the international energy, obviously is coal that we're pumping

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Speaker 2: into Hunt.

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Speaker 1: They rhyme, that's right, yeah, And that's a function of

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Speaker 1: a few things as well. So you've got you do

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Speaker 1: have lower gas coming into the system, and gas is

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Speaker 1: a preferable fuel of coal. Of course, cold is the

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Speaker 1: fuel of last result if you like, for the elytricity sector.

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Speaker 1: But you've got other factors in there as well. We

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Speaker 1: had two very wet years last year and the year before,

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Speaker 1: and that's often lost on people too. So we had

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Speaker 1: a lot of hydro on the system. We had a

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Speaker 1: lot of higher ranking fuel in the system, and we

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Speaker 1: don't have it this year. We're well blown average for

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Speaker 1: this time of the year the hydra and the last

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Speaker 1: two years also we had very soft arm and we're

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Speaker 1: now starting to see real demand growth coming through and electricity.

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Speaker 1: So if you put all that together, we need more

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Speaker 1: of this stuff to come out of the wires. At

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Speaker 1: the end of the day and if we don't have

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Speaker 1: we has to come into the system. We don't have hydro,

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Speaker 1: then we need to look to something else. And unfortunately

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Speaker 1: that's so John.

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Speaker 2: If we're down on the Hydra lakes at the moment

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Speaker 2: and we're dropping in the gas, does that mean and

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Speaker 2: there's only so much that Huntley can burn, does that

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Speaker 2: mean that we're going to have power outages this winter.

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Speaker 1: That's been a risk for a while. We've been concerned

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Speaker 1: about that for some time. You know, there's it does

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Speaker 1: boil down to the peak. So when we are in

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Speaker 1: the coldest period of winter so jeary is this time

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Speaker 1: of night and into the evening, and we don't have

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Speaker 1: much wind coming through the system. Obviously soul is not

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Speaker 1: a factor. Then we need to call on what is

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Speaker 1: available to us. And we've already been told by the

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Speaker 1: system operator Transperer And it's a general concern across the

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Speaker 1: sector that this winter, during those periods of what we

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Speaker 1: call dunkle flout, which is you know, the doldrums where

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Speaker 1: we don't have that winter and there is no sun

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Speaker 1: and we're constrained with other aflds coming into the system,

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Speaker 1: then there is the risk that we might not have

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Speaker 1: much juice to be able to meet thought about Okay.

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Speaker 2: How far how long before we call this a crisis.

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Speaker 1: Crisis just isn't a word that real enters the sector's

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Speaker 1: head to frank you know, it's a matter of just

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Speaker 1: making things work. There will be many things that can

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Speaker 1: be done on the way to help manage the situation.

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Speaker 1: And you know we're seeing this in the gas sector

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Speaker 1: as well. What's often lost in all the noise of

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Speaker 1: this is that we're seeing some pretty dramatic side responses here.

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Speaker 1: So methodex is our biggest energy user normally by far,

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Speaker 1: they're well down on that consumption now and it's the

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Speaker 1: worst kind of an outside response. You're a massive export,

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Speaker 1: a billion or exporter out of Taranaki who can't run

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Speaker 1: at full capacities because they don't have the fuel available

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Speaker 1: to them. So you know what I'm trying to say

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Speaker 1: is the system will adjust. Unfortunately, it's not a costless exercise,

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Speaker 1: and demand will generally come off to help meat supply

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Speaker 1: as well as supply meeting demand.

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Speaker 2: Well, here's hope and John, thank you so much, really appreciated.

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Speaker 2: John kid director and head of research at Analyticate. Just

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Speaker 2: to remind you why demand will come off is because

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Speaker 2: we're asking some of our big prou our big manufacturers

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Speaker 2: to stop their work when we need them to. That

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Speaker 2: should not be happening in a first world country.

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Speaker 1: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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