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Speaker 1: Reasons to ignore political polls this year and reasons not

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Speaker 1: to so. One, we've got two polls since the election

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Speaker 1: was called Radio New Zealand yesterday Taxpayers last week. Both

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Speaker 1: tell you the government as it stands will be re elected,

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Speaker 1: so there's a consistency to that too. Both tell the

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Speaker 1: same story and both don't labour thirty fivesh in both poles.

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Speaker 1: That reassures you in terms of accuracy, But is New

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Speaker 1: Zealand first ten or is it eleven and a half?

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Speaker 1: And in a credit fiel where a point matters far

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Speaker 1: less being inside or outside the margin of era that

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Speaker 1: makes poles look ropey three a theme this is where

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Speaker 1: poles are effective. Both poles have New Zealand first materially

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Speaker 1: going up that, whether accurate or not, creates noise, and

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Speaker 1: noise is momentum, and momentum The big mo is gold

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Speaker 1: An election year four. The impenduibles of the Marray Party.

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Speaker 1: All polls are based on the idea of the Marray

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Speaker 1: Party has succeeds i e. They're in Parliament, but given

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Speaker 1: their current state will they even survive? And from what

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Speaker 1: we know of the sort of shift we've seen historic

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Speaker 1: both with the Marory vote generally and the Marory Party

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Speaker 1: votes specifically, It's entirely possible They're gone unless you win

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Speaker 1: a seat your two or three percent support, remember, is

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Speaker 1: put in the bin. That is Labour's worse nightmare, and

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Speaker 1: I am assuming the Mary Party aren't too keen on

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Speaker 1: that either. Five. The other commonality between Poles is the

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Speaker 1: Greens are down, and their hopeless and happless disposition easily

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Speaker 1: explains that six top. Just to back up what I

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Speaker 1: was saying yesterday, would need to do more than double

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Speaker 1: their vote to get in. They won't do it. Now.

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Speaker 1: Can things change generally? Of course they can. That's what

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Speaker 1: makes this year so exciting. And the real figure to

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Speaker 1: watch is the right way wrong way numbers. Governments don't

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Speaker 1: win elections, they say when more people think things are

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Speaker 1: not going well. Hence the runway, hence the date of November,

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Speaker 1: hence the hope. Stuff gets material and fast and the

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Speaker 1: mood changes with it. But that's the great reminder all

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Speaker 1: polsters will give you. These are snapshots of a moment,

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Speaker 1: the hero and now, so have a look at it

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Speaker 1: this way. If the government can be re elected when

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Speaker 1: the majority think we're heading in the wrong direction, which

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Speaker 1: both poles seem to indicate they will be. What will

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Speaker 1: their margin be when the mood is turned all this

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Speaker 1: if the Maori Party can't resurrect themselves and the mood

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Speaker 1: swings positive as well. In other words, they're gone and

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Speaker 1: we're all happy. Will November seven even be close? For

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Speaker 1: more from The Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to News

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Speaker 1: Talks at B from six am weekdays, or follow the

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Speaker 1: podcast on iHeartRadio