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Speaker 1: So the fallout from Operation Epic Fury starting to be

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Speaker 1: felled oils up. As we've told you this morning, a

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Speaker 1: lot of it's stuck in the strait at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Of refinery and guitar has been hit. Over night, the

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Speaker 1: L and G production stopped. The warnings continue from Americans

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Speaker 1: that casualties may well rise. Joel Rubin is a former

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Speaker 1: Deputy Assistant Secretary of State under the Obama administration. And

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Speaker 1: as with us, Joel, morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Hey, make great to be with you.

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Speaker 1: Thank you the job from the White House and talking

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Speaker 1: to the American people. Your observation so far as what

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Speaker 1: are they doing a good job or not not enough.

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Speaker 2: The President is putting out videos which is useful, and

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Speaker 2: they're getting their game going now this week and speaking

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Speaker 2: to and brief in Congress, and there will be a

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Speaker 2: couple of votes in both chambers this week about the war.

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Speaker 2: But they can do more. They should do more. Typically,

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Speaker 2: on Sunday morning shows in Washington, you get administration officials

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Speaker 2: fanning out across those shows to explain the policy that

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Speaker 2: did not happen yesterday. And so I think I think

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Speaker 2: that the silver ways to go to explain the objectives.

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Speaker 1: The IPSOS poll, I had a couple of moments ago

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Speaker 1: twenty seven percent support. At the rest don't is does

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Speaker 1: that matter or not?

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, in the near term it is not.

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Speaker 2: But if it drags on for weeks into the month

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Speaker 2: time frames, yes we will have an impact. And the

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Speaker 2: real intriguing question also is from a polling perspective, who

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Speaker 2: is abandoning President Trump and his base is Marga Bass

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Speaker 2: in many ways voted for him to avoid this exact moment.

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Speaker 2: Democrats by and large are going to be negative on

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Speaker 2: this war, even if some support it privately, but for

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Speaker 2: political reasons, they'll be like that. But you know, there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of discontent right now in his base and

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Speaker 2: it may hurt his pulling.

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Speaker 1: And that's where we bring in jd. Vance. We've not

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Speaker 1: heard from him. There's one photo he was sitting there

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Speaker 1: with Heigs. It wasn't Heigs who was sitting there with

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Speaker 1: Bess And I think that he's literally not spoken. Is

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Speaker 1: that is he representing the people you just talked about?

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Speaker 2: I think if I'm him, I'm hiding because his brand

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Speaker 2: is associated with exact the exact opposite of the current policy.

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Speaker 2: You add to that, Tulci Gabbard, who is the Director

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Speaker 2: of National Intelligence. She essentially campaigned against foreign interventions and frankly,

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Speaker 2: this is the price you pay to take the take

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Speaker 2: the VP slot. But I also think nobody in this

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Speaker 2: administration wants to head to the president. He's the guy,

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Speaker 2: he's the messenger, he's setting the policy. You may see

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Speaker 2: Hegseth anothers speak, but he really is the one who's speaking.

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Speaker 1: We well, we heard him speak just a couple of

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Speaker 1: months ago from the White House. Does he in his

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Speaker 1: head have an actual plan? Well, I mean he talks

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Speaker 1: about a plan and then he says it's very quick

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Speaker 1: and very short, and then it's four weeks, and then

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Speaker 1: it's five weeks, or it might not be. Does he

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Speaker 1: have a plan?

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Speaker 2: You know, he had a plan for the first days,

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Speaker 2: without a doubt, and he had a military plan to

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Speaker 2: strike and decapitate the regime, to take out the Supreme leader,

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Speaker 2: and to go at through the infrastructure of the offensive

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Speaker 2: capabilities of Iran. And they're executing that plan. They do

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Speaker 2: not have much more of a plan though beyond that,

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Speaker 2: and certainly not for the day after scenarios. We heard

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Speaker 2: him call for aspirational goals of the people rising up,

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Speaker 2: but how to implement that. He has not explained exactly

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Speaker 2: how that's going to take place, and that I think

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Speaker 2: is the big gap in the next days.

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Speaker 1: Well, that was my next question. When does the uprising start?

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Speaker 1: And if you are part of that uprising, if you

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Speaker 1: are in Iran, what is it you're looking to see

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Speaker 1: happen before you rise up?

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Speaker 2: I mean, what you're looking for first of all, is

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Speaker 2: can we the United States provide air cover and support

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Speaker 2: for the people if the people go into the streets

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Speaker 2: and begin to do mass protests and push forward different names,

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Speaker 2: different factions. Will there be leaders inside of Iran who

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Speaker 2: will break with the leadership structure now and call for

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Speaker 2: a termination of the current leadership or breakaway? But what

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Speaker 2: role will the US play to protect the people? Because remember,

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Speaker 2: in many ways we backed into this dynamic because the

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Speaker 2: President said he wanted the running people to be protected

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Speaker 2: after they were slaughtered en mass in the streets in January,

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Speaker 2: and so now if they come back out, will they

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Speaker 2: be protected? That? I think is what we can do.

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Speaker 2: Will we do it? Is the question?

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Speaker 1: Big Tom Crystal Bull, Joel, I'm going to ring you

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Speaker 1: in four weeks. What's happened?

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Speaker 2: Ha ha? Well, in four weeks, it's going to be

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Speaker 2: springtime in Washington. But I do think that we're going

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Speaker 2: to see a level of winding down of military operations

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Speaker 2: and some type of declaration of success by the President.

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Speaker 2: But I think he's going to give this several weeks

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Speaker 2: of continued attacks, especially since the United States currently enjoys

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Speaker 2: dominance in the skies over and on.

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Speaker 1: All right, we'll talk to you before four weeks. Actually,

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Speaker 1: I've enjoyed your company. Joel Rubin, who's the former Deputy

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Speaker 1: Assistant Secretary of Site in the Adbamber administration.

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Speaker 2: For more the Bye Casking Breakfast, listen live to News

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Speaker 2: Talk Set B from six am weekdays, or follow the

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Speaker 2: podcast on iHeartRadio