Speaker 1: Kioda.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
Speaker 2: daily podcast.
Speaker 1: Presented by the New Zealand Herald.
Speaker 2: It's all rain and no shine this week across the country.
Speaker 2: Warm tropical air sitting north of New Zealand has brought
Speaker 2: with it thunderstorms and rain warnings for Northland, Auckland, Great
Speaker 2: Barrier Island and the Corimandal Peninsula. Crews have already been
Speaker 2: working on clearing slips along State Highway to between or
Speaker 2: Portucky and Gisbon. So what is the outlook for this
Speaker 2: week and when will Mother Nature give us all a break?
Speaker 2: Today on the Front Page, Newer Principal Scientist Chris Brandolino
Speaker 2: is with us to take us through what to expect
Speaker 2: and when we might be able to put the sheets
Speaker 2: on the line. First off, is what is driving this
Speaker 2: stormy where the New Zealand is experiencing at the moment moisture.
Speaker 3: We're getting tropical moisture. There's a tropical low well to
Speaker 3: our north over north and west of New Caledonia in
Speaker 3: the tropics right and that is going to move south.
Speaker 3: That low it's disorganized, but what it has with it
Speaker 3: is a lot of moisture from the tropics now separate
Speaker 3: to that, there's a another low. There's a separate low
Speaker 3: over the Tasman Sea. So the two are going to
Speaker 3: work together to provide us this really wet period. We've
Speaker 3: already seen the rain and the wind, but that's really
Speaker 3: going to increase and should reach its apex sometime during
Speaker 3: the day on Thursday or Wednesday, I beg your pardon,
Speaker 3: perhaps even into early Thursday for some.
Speaker 1: Right, So how's it looking at the for the rest
Speaker 1: of the wake for the country?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so look, I think going kind of step by step.
Speaker 3: So when we're trying to understand what's going to happen
Speaker 3: with the weather in this case, let's say rainfall, what
Speaker 3: we're doing is we're looking looking at modeling. So modeling
Speaker 3: tries to tell us meteorologists what the atmosphere is going
Speaker 3: to be like in a day, an hour, and a week.
Speaker 3: So we can actually look at what's called scenarios. So
Speaker 3: we have in house this model called New Zealand Ensemble System.
Speaker 3: There's eighteen scenarios eighteen and we can look at those
Speaker 3: scenarios and try to understand what are the outcomes that
Speaker 3: are on the table, what are the possibilities to consider
Speaker 3: and if those eighteen outcomes start to look more similar
Speaker 3: than dissimilar, that gives us some confidence that what is
Speaker 3: being shown or what is most likely to happen, will happen.
Speaker 3: And then we can take those eighteen outcomes and we
Speaker 3: can say, right, here is a kind of a low
Speaker 3: end scenario. We'll call it a dry scenario, and here's
Speaker 3: the middle of the road scenario, and here is a
Speaker 3: wet scenario, kind of a worst case scenario. So you
Speaker 3: can look at three scenarios, and that's really helpful because
Speaker 3: it gives people an idea, Well, if things got really
Speaker 3: gnarly and nasty, what could that look like? Or hey,
Speaker 3: what if things actually settled down and wasn't so bad.
Speaker 3: Maybe as the worst case scenario, kind of a low
Speaker 3: end scenario, what does that look like? And when you
Speaker 3: look at that sort of middle of the road scenario
Speaker 3: or the higher end scenario, places like the Coramandal, places
Speaker 3: like Eastern Northland, places like Bay of Plenty, Tadasaiti, Gisbon.
Speaker 3: Those areas have the highest risk for seeing some really
Speaker 3: heavy rainfall. We're talking one hundred to maybe even two
Speaker 3: hundred millimeters of rain and a pretty short period of time.
Speaker 3: And Northland. As you know, we had the flooding over
Speaker 3: the weekend on Sunday. So the concern there is that
Speaker 3: you already had flooding, now you're gonna get more rain.
Speaker 3: That could be kind of a that unfortunately, could be
Speaker 3: a situation where flooding it occurs when normally it wouldn't
Speaker 3: simply because the ground is so wet.
Speaker 1: Is that a recipe for slips as well?
Speaker 3: It is exactly. Yeah, So oftentimes when the ground becomes
Speaker 3: really saturated, it becomes quite heavy and things could peel
Speaker 3: off and you get things falling from side the cliffs
Speaker 3: and higher elevation. So that's a really good point. Yeah,
Speaker 3: things like landslips, those kind of go part and parcel
Speaker 3: with the heavy rainfall. And with that heavy rainfall, the
Speaker 3: risk of flooding obviously becomes a real concern. As I mentioned,
Speaker 3: So we can look at where the potential of river
Speaker 3: flooding is most likely. So if you take the rainfall
Speaker 3: forecast and assuming that's reasonably accurate it's not way off,
Speaker 3: you can then put it into a river flow model
Speaker 3: and say, right, where are the flows likely to be,
Speaker 3: say above average or extremely high. And when you get
Speaker 3: into that extremely high category that is where river flooding
Speaker 3: becomes most likely, So places like Northland, the Coremandel Bay
Speaker 3: of Plenty, those are the areas worth watching for the
Speaker 3: river flooding. Other areas, I'm sure are candidates, but in
Speaker 3: terms of the highest risk likely in those areas, and
Speaker 3: that's where METS are us our friends at MET Service,
Speaker 3: and that's where they have those weather warnings. So obviously
Speaker 3: you want to stay on top of the warnings because
Speaker 3: those are the areas that are going to be of
Speaker 3: greatest risk for significant impacts such as the rain, but
Speaker 3: also the wind wind coming from the east, that's kind
Speaker 3: of an unusual wind direction. You combine in an usual
Speaker 3: wind direction with an extended period. We're talking twelve twenty
Speaker 3: four hours of wing GUS is sixty seventy and during
Speaker 3: the day on Wednesday could approach eighty ninety or one
Speaker 3: hundred kilometers per hour on wet soils. That does increase
Speaker 3: or elevate the odds for things like tree damage and
Speaker 3: power cuts, and we've already seen some of that.
Speaker 2: In terms of when we should see the worst of
Speaker 2: it and when we should be on the other side
Speaker 2: of it, is it really looking at Wednesday or tomorrow here.
Speaker 3: I think by Thursday morning we'll start to see some
Speaker 3: significant improvement for probably much of the country, much of
Speaker 3: the North Island. Keep in mind this is chiefly a
Speaker 3: North Island event. It is worth watching as look at
Speaker 3: some of the maps here. We will have to keep
Speaker 3: an eye on the eastern South Island. It is possible
Speaker 3: that they could see some heavy rain later on Thursday,
Speaker 3: so it's worth mentioning that. But I think once we
Speaker 3: get into Thursday afternoon we will start to see the
Speaker 3: certainly the rain go away. It's probably gonna remain a
Speaker 3: bit blustery, probably unfortunately for much of Thursday. I know
Speaker 3: we have a long weekend coming up for the Upper
Speaker 3: North Island Auckland anniversary and people are hoping for some
Speaker 3: good weather. Unfortunately that doesn't look to be the case.
Speaker 3: But we can maybe bookmark that and circle back to
Speaker 3: that if you want in a minute or two. But
Speaker 3: regarding this weather right now or the upcoming weather, I
Speaker 3: really think it's Wednesday into Wednesday night and too early Thursday,
Speaker 3: with the top of the country i e. Northland getting
Speaker 3: the worst weather first, and areas like Bay have plenty.
Speaker 3: Tadasa di Gisban that coming a bit later. But that
Speaker 3: also means Northland will likely say, see some improvement earlier
Speaker 3: because their weather will go downhill earlier as well.
Speaker 2: No, No, Chris, I wanted to talk about anniversary weekend.
Speaker 2: Now I tell you now, I mean, I suppose a
Speaker 2: lot of people have those bad memories from the Animalsary Day, floods, cyclone, Gabrielle.
Speaker 2: I mean, is this just what we're having to get
Speaker 2: used to at this time of year?
Speaker 3: As we all know, bad weather happens all the time.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 3: When I say all the time, I mean it isn't like,
Speaker 3: oh my gosh, we haven't seen this in five years.
Speaker 3: Bad weather happens, you know, It's part of life. But
Speaker 3: what I can say is that when we get these
Speaker 3: big events, these higher end events, it is congruent with
Speaker 3: our expectations of a warming climate. What do I mean
Speaker 3: by that when our planet our temperature warms. What that
Speaker 3: does is that when you take a big weather event,
Speaker 3: which have always happened. But what climate change does. It
Speaker 3: makes three things. It makes the big weather event or
Speaker 3: the extreme weather event a more likely to happen. B
Speaker 3: it makes those events more frequent, and C it makes
Speaker 3: those big weather or extreme weather events more well extreme.
Speaker 3: So that is what is happening. And so when we
Speaker 3: get these weather events, if this same weather event were
Speaker 3: to occur fifty years from now, unfortunately, it's likely to
Speaker 3: produce even bigger impacts, more rain and things like that.
Speaker 3: So big weather events have always happened, but I think
Speaker 3: because of climate change, what we're seeing is that they
Speaker 3: tend to happen more frequently. That tend to happen, they
Speaker 3: tend to be more likely to occur, and when they
Speaker 3: do occur, they can run the risk of being even
Speaker 3: more extreme than they say. We're fifty years ago or
Speaker 3: one hundred years ago.
Speaker 2: So when people think of summer that I think of
Speaker 2: beach days and hanging your sheets out on the line
Speaker 2: and having them dry and five minutes of that kind
Speaker 2: of thing. I mean, when do you think, do you
Speaker 2: think summer is over in that respect?
Speaker 3: Gosh, oh no, no, no, no, summer is not. We're
Speaker 3: just getting started now. Look we're in mid January here,
Speaker 3: so we still have a good you know, ten days
Speaker 3: before the end of January, and we got all feb
Speaker 3: which I know is kind of a short month. There's
Speaker 3: no mistaking that. But keep in mind, here's a good
Speaker 3: thing about being an island nation. An island nation, we're
Speaker 3: surrounded by water. Right, here's a good thing. Our ocean
Speaker 3: temperatures reach their apex, reach their highest typically in about
Speaker 3: early mid February. Well, why is that a big deal?
Speaker 3: Because that helps to keep us warmer a bit longer.
Speaker 3: So as we go into March, our ocean temperatures are
Speaker 3: really quite warm still, they're coming off, you know, they're
Speaker 3: not too far removed from when they're at their highest,
Speaker 3: and as a consequence, that has an upward influence on
Speaker 3: our air temperatures. What am I saying? March can often
Speaker 3: be an extension of summer. You know, Yeah, the days
Speaker 3: are a bit shorter, but you can get some really
Speaker 3: warm temperature still in some really nice weather. So summer
Speaker 3: is not over now. It may feel like it. This weekend.
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna kid you there. This weekend is gonna
Speaker 3: be an apple how Doways say this. I want to
Speaker 3: keep it polite here. It's not gonna be pleasant Saturday.
Speaker 3: If look for those, whether it's a long weekend for
Speaker 3: you or not, Saturday looks absolutely it'll feel autumnal it's
Speaker 3: gonna feel like autumn. There's gonna be strong, gusty southwest winds,
Speaker 3: which is a cold winden direction, and this time of
Speaker 3: the year, when you get a chilly air in the
Speaker 3: middle of summer, the sun angle is still quite strong,
Speaker 3: as we know. That creates an environment where we get
Speaker 3: these really kind of gusty showers and thunderstorms. So I'm
Speaker 3: expecting on Saturday there is going to be across much
Speaker 3: of the North Island, especially the hours, thunderstorms, maybe even
Speaker 3: some hail. That is likely they persist into Sunday as well.
Speaker 3: So it's not looking good. I think Monday, the actual anniversary,
Speaker 3: maybe we can salvage it. Maybe one out of three
Speaker 3: is okay. So if you're looking to enjoy the weekend,
Speaker 3: it's gonna be chilly everywhere, unusually cool, and we're talking
Speaker 3: chili for Midsummer, okay, We're not talking like winter chill,
Speaker 3: though sudden they think it feels like it. I think
Speaker 3: if you're looking to find the best weather this weekend,
Speaker 3: where to go for that, it might actually be the
Speaker 3: top of the South Island or maybe the parts of Otago.
Speaker 3: They may sneak in a pretty good weekend, but those
Speaker 3: areas too are gonna be chilly now. It won't last forever.
Speaker 3: I think as we get into next week, we're likely
Speaker 3: to see a change in the weather pattern. Things will moderate.
Speaker 3: But I do think for those who are in the
Speaker 3: South Island or maybe going to do some holiday making
Speaker 3: in the South Island, as we get toward the end
Speaker 3: of January into early February, they're like they see some
Speaker 3: chillier days. I think the South Island is going to
Speaker 3: have days where it's chillier than usual, more of those
Speaker 3: days than say the North Island. And I'm pretty confident
Speaker 3: if we go farther out, if you want to talk
Speaker 3: about February, I do think February is shaping up to
Speaker 3: be more of a potentially a warmer month than what
Speaker 3: the last say, ten days of January are going to
Speaker 3: give us. I e that cold snap I just talked about.
Speaker 3: I do think we'll get into some warmer weather again.
Speaker 3: So this is no, the summer is not over, that
Speaker 3: is the short answer. I do think there's plenty more
Speaker 3: summer to come. But you know, we still have to
Speaker 3: keep our eyes to the north because anytime we get
Speaker 3: weather coming from the north, that is when we get
Speaker 3: these flooding events. That increases the odds or these flooding events.
Speaker 3: The north has all the moisture. That's all that moisture is,
Speaker 3: and that is fuel for heavy rain.
Speaker 1: Does all of this have anything to do with La Nania?
Speaker 3: Well done? Yeah, you've done your homework, so yes it does.
Speaker 1: I've spoken to you enough to know who what is?
Speaker 3: Yeah. So look for those who don't know what is,
Speaker 3: Laanini is a climate driver. So you may be thinking,
Speaker 3: what the heck's a climate driver? Basically a climate driver
Speaker 3: when we're doing these long range outlooks, you know, for
Speaker 3: the next two months, the next three months, and that
Speaker 3: that sort of thing we want to what we what
Speaker 3: we're trying to do is first things first, who's going
Speaker 3: to be driving Mother Nature's car. If you know who's
Speaker 3: driving Mother Nature's car, at least have a good idea, right,
Speaker 3: then you're in good position to understand what the themes
Speaker 3: are going to be like two months, three months. Again,
Speaker 3: we're talking themes. It's not a weather forecast, and La
Speaker 3: Nini is one of them. Linina is a climate driver,
Speaker 3: and history tells us when we have La Nina, here's
Speaker 3: what happens. We tend to get increased chances for lows
Speaker 3: coming from the north. Tick. That's what we're seeing today,
Speaker 3: tomorrow and through early Thursday, a low coming from the north.
Speaker 3: We tend to get more easterlies and we're going to
Speaker 3: be seeing that the next couple of days. Tick. It
Speaker 3: doesn't mean that happens all the time. It just means
Speaker 3: you get less of those westerly winds, which is what
Speaker 3: we typically see. You get a reduction of those, and
Speaker 3: you get an increase of easterly winds and visitors from
Speaker 3: the north. So an answer to your question, the short
Speaker 3: answer is yes, this is consistent and congruent with what
Speaker 3: we would expect with li Nina being at the steering
Speaker 3: wheel of Mother Nature's car. Now Linin is actually going away,
Speaker 3: it all takes some time for the weather to catch
Speaker 3: up to Linina going away. These climate drivers tend to
Speaker 3: have a long memory. They tend to you tend to
Speaker 3: get Linina like weather patterns even when Linina is officially
Speaker 3: or formally sort of in the rearview mirror or gone.
Speaker 3: So I do think we still have to keep our
Speaker 3: eyes to the north for these big weather, big rain
Speaker 3: makers right through the autumn season. But here's a little
Speaker 3: pro tip. Here's some Here's here's some behind the curtain
Speaker 3: speak as we go into winter, so we're going way
Speaker 3: out there and to spring. So later this year, you know,
Speaker 3: six seven, eight, and nine months from now, it looks
Speaker 3: like El Nino may be coming to the party, and
Speaker 3: it looks like El Nino maybe become a climate driver.
Speaker 3: What that looks like and what that means, we'll have
Speaker 3: to wait and see. But just a bit of a
Speaker 3: heads up. If that were to occur, that would obviously
Speaker 3: mean obviously mean different weather patterns than what is consistent
Speaker 3: with La Nina. If that makes sense, we'll.
Speaker 2: Have to speak about Nina's mate, Nino later this year.
Speaker 4: Brush your Spanish, Chris, if you had to describe this
Speaker 4: summer's weather sofar, how would you describe it in a sentence?
Speaker 3: Mixed? There's a word, oh you, I'll cut it down
Speaker 3: to one word. I would Yeah. Look, I know that's
Speaker 3: kind of a you know, a bit of a cop
Speaker 3: out potentially, but I mean, let's do a quick let's
Speaker 3: do a quick, quick recap. Okay, December was very warm.
Speaker 3: I mean, I'll just sheut to my colleague chester Chester.
Speaker 3: What was December? The December was that unusually? I was
Speaker 3: in a usually warm month? Was it? I? Was in
Speaker 3: the twenties. Yeah, I beg your party, but it was
Speaker 3: in the top twenty five or top thirty, whatever it was.
Speaker 3: So it was unusually warm December, so I mean, I
Speaker 3: feel like warmth. That was you know that happened. We
Speaker 3: had those really hot temperatures in the eastern part of
Speaker 3: both islands with those windy conditions, and then we had,
Speaker 3: you know, we had some pretty cold temperatures across the
Speaker 3: South Island after New Year's so it has been mixed.
Speaker 3: Now we're dealing with this big rainfall across the country,
Speaker 3: so it has been mixed. I do think, I do
Speaker 3: think somewhere is not over with. As I said before, Yes,
Speaker 3: it'll feel like it this weekend for Auckland Anniversary weekend,
Speaker 3: and it will feel like it at times for the
Speaker 3: South Island for the end of the month. But I
Speaker 3: think there's more summer to come, and I feel confident
Speaker 3: about that. Look, I'm a husband, I'm a father, and
Speaker 3: I'm a meteorologist, so I'm used to being wrong. But
Speaker 3: we'll see how we go.
Speaker 2: Well, I won't pack away my bag each blanket just yet.
Speaker 3: No, don't do that. That'd be silly. You'd be missing
Speaker 3: out there'd be some, especially for the North I think
Speaker 3: the North Island probably, Yeah, twenty seventh warmest, my colleague Chester,
Speaker 3: thank you for that. So you know, when you know,
Speaker 3: we think of one hundred and ten Decembers, twenty said
Speaker 3: with warmest, and that means something. But look, if you're
Speaker 3: in the North Island, I think you have the best
Speaker 3: chances for seeing more persistent summer type weather or you know,
Speaker 3: quick essential summer like weather, if that makes sense.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Chris.
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. I enjoy coming on the program.
Speaker 5: That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
Speaker 5: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
Speaker 5: at enzidhrald dot co dot enz. The Front Page is
Speaker 5: hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels Caine. Dicky is
Speaker 5: our studio operator, Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and
Speaker 5: our executive producer.
Speaker 1: Is Jane Ye.
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