1 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: Kioda. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 2: daily podcast. 4 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:12,400 Speaker 1: Presented by the New Zealand Herald. 5 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:20,919 Speaker 2: It's all rain and no shine this week across the country. 6 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 2: Warm tropical air sitting north of New Zealand has brought 7 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 2: with it thunderstorms and rain warnings for Northland, Auckland, Great 8 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:33,959 Speaker 2: Barrier Island and the Corimandal Peninsula. Crews have already been 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 2: working on clearing slips along State Highway to between or 10 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 2: Portucky and Gisbon. So what is the outlook for this 11 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:45,840 Speaker 2: week and when will Mother Nature give us all a break? 12 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 2: Today on the Front Page, Newer Principal Scientist Chris Brandolino 13 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 2: is with us to take us through what to expect 14 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 2: and when we might be able to put the sheets 15 00:00:55,240 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 2: on the line. First off, is what is driving this 16 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 2: stormy where the New Zealand is experiencing at the moment moisture. 17 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 3: We're getting tropical moisture. There's a tropical low well to 18 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 3: our north over north and west of New Caledonia in 19 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:17,119 Speaker 3: the tropics right and that is going to move south. 20 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 3: That low it's disorganized, but what it has with it 21 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 3: is a lot of moisture from the tropics now separate 22 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,680 Speaker 3: to that, there's a another low. There's a separate low 23 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:29,039 Speaker 3: over the Tasman Sea. So the two are going to 24 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 3: work together to provide us this really wet period. We've 25 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 3: already seen the rain and the wind, but that's really 26 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 3: going to increase and should reach its apex sometime during 27 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:43,199 Speaker 3: the day on Thursday or Wednesday, I beg your pardon, 28 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 3: perhaps even into early Thursday for some. 29 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: Right, So how's it looking at the for the rest 30 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: of the wake for the country? 31 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, so look, I think going kind of step by step. 32 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 3: So when we're trying to understand what's going to happen 33 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 3: with the weather in this case, let's say rainfall, what 34 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 3: we're doing is we're looking looking at modeling. So modeling 35 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 3: tries to tell us meteorologists what the atmosphere is going 36 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 3: to be like in a day, an hour, and a week. 37 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 3: So we can actually look at what's called scenarios. So 38 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 3: we have in house this model called New Zealand Ensemble System. 39 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 3: There's eighteen scenarios eighteen and we can look at those 40 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 3: scenarios and try to understand what are the outcomes that 41 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 3: are on the table, what are the possibilities to consider 42 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,359 Speaker 3: and if those eighteen outcomes start to look more similar 43 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 3: than dissimilar, that gives us some confidence that what is 44 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 3: being shown or what is most likely to happen, will happen. 45 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 3: And then we can take those eighteen outcomes and we 46 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 3: can say, right, here is a kind of a low 47 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 3: end scenario. We'll call it a dry scenario, and here's 48 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 3: the middle of the road scenario, and here is a 49 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,919 Speaker 3: wet scenario, kind of a worst case scenario. So you 50 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 3: can look at three scenarios, and that's really helpful because 51 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 3: it gives people an idea, Well, if things got really 52 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 3: gnarly and nasty, what could that look like? Or hey, 53 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 3: what if things actually settled down and wasn't so bad. 54 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:10,839 Speaker 3: Maybe as the worst case scenario, kind of a low 55 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 3: end scenario, what does that look like? And when you 56 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 3: look at that sort of middle of the road scenario 57 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 3: or the higher end scenario, places like the Coramandal, places 58 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 3: like Eastern Northland, places like Bay of Plenty, Tadasaiti, Gisbon. 59 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 3: Those areas have the highest risk for seeing some really 60 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 3: heavy rainfall. We're talking one hundred to maybe even two 61 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 3: hundred millimeters of rain and a pretty short period of time. 62 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,839 Speaker 3: And Northland. As you know, we had the flooding over 63 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 3: the weekend on Sunday. So the concern there is that 64 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 3: you already had flooding, now you're gonna get more rain. 65 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 3: That could be kind of a that unfortunately, could be 66 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 3: a situation where flooding it occurs when normally it wouldn't 67 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 3: simply because the ground is so wet. 68 00:03:57,320 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: Is that a recipe for slips as well? 69 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 3: It is exactly. Yeah, So oftentimes when the ground becomes 70 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 3: really saturated, it becomes quite heavy and things could peel 71 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 3: off and you get things falling from side the cliffs 72 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 3: and higher elevation. So that's a really good point. Yeah, 73 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 3: things like landslips, those kind of go part and parcel 74 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 3: with the heavy rainfall. And with that heavy rainfall, the 75 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,919 Speaker 3: risk of flooding obviously becomes a real concern. As I mentioned, 76 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 3: So we can look at where the potential of river 77 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 3: flooding is most likely. So if you take the rainfall 78 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 3: forecast and assuming that's reasonably accurate it's not way off, 79 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 3: you can then put it into a river flow model 80 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 3: and say, right, where are the flows likely to be, 81 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 3: say above average or extremely high. And when you get 82 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 3: into that extremely high category that is where river flooding 83 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 3: becomes most likely, So places like Northland, the Coremandel Bay 84 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 3: of Plenty, those are the areas worth watching for the 85 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 3: river flooding. Other areas, I'm sure are candidates, but in 86 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 3: terms of the highest risk likely in those areas, and 87 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 3: that's where METS are us our friends at MET Service, 88 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 3: and that's where they have those weather warnings. So obviously 89 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 3: you want to stay on top of the warnings because 90 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 3: those are the areas that are going to be of 91 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:12,359 Speaker 3: greatest risk for significant impacts such as the rain, but 92 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 3: also the wind wind coming from the east, that's kind 93 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 3: of an unusual wind direction. You combine in an usual 94 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 3: wind direction with an extended period. We're talking twelve twenty 95 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 3: four hours of wing GUS is sixty seventy and during 96 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 3: the day on Wednesday could approach eighty ninety or one 97 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 3: hundred kilometers per hour on wet soils. That does increase 98 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 3: or elevate the odds for things like tree damage and 99 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 3: power cuts, and we've already seen some of that. 100 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 2: In terms of when we should see the worst of 101 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 2: it and when we should be on the other side 102 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 2: of it, is it really looking at Wednesday or tomorrow here. 103 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 3: I think by Thursday morning we'll start to see some 104 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 3: significant improvement for probably much of the country, much of 105 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,599 Speaker 3: the North Island. Keep in mind this is chiefly a 106 00:05:55,760 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 3: North Island event. It is worth watching as look at 107 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 3: some of the maps here. We will have to keep 108 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 3: an eye on the eastern South Island. It is possible 109 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 3: that they could see some heavy rain later on Thursday, 110 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 3: so it's worth mentioning that. But I think once we 111 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 3: get into Thursday afternoon we will start to see the 112 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 3: certainly the rain go away. It's probably gonna remain a 113 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 3: bit blustery, probably unfortunately for much of Thursday. I know 114 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 3: we have a long weekend coming up for the Upper 115 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 3: North Island Auckland anniversary and people are hoping for some 116 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 3: good weather. Unfortunately that doesn't look to be the case. 117 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 3: But we can maybe bookmark that and circle back to 118 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 3: that if you want in a minute or two. But 119 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 3: regarding this weather right now or the upcoming weather, I 120 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 3: really think it's Wednesday into Wednesday night and too early Thursday, 121 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 3: with the top of the country i e. Northland getting 122 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 3: the worst weather first, and areas like Bay have plenty. 123 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 3: Tadasa di Gisban that coming a bit later. But that 124 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 3: also means Northland will likely say, see some improvement earlier 125 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,919 Speaker 3: because their weather will go downhill earlier as well. 126 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 2: No, No, Chris, I wanted to talk about anniversary weekend. 127 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 2: Now I tell you now, I mean, I suppose a 128 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 2: lot of people have those bad memories from the Animalsary Day, floods, cyclone, Gabrielle. 129 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 2: I mean, is this just what we're having to get 130 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 2: used to at this time of year? 131 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 3: As we all know, bad weather happens all the time. 132 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 2: You know. 133 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 3: When I say all the time, I mean it isn't like, 134 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 3: oh my gosh, we haven't seen this in five years. 135 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 3: Bad weather happens, you know, It's part of life. But 136 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 3: what I can say is that when we get these 137 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 3: big events, these higher end events, it is congruent with 138 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 3: our expectations of a warming climate. What do I mean 139 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 3: by that when our planet our temperature warms. What that 140 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 3: does is that when you take a big weather event, 141 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 3: which have always happened. But what climate change does. It 142 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 3: makes three things. It makes the big weather event or 143 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 3: the extreme weather event a more likely to happen. B 144 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 3: it makes those events more frequent, and C it makes 145 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 3: those big weather or extreme weather events more well extreme. 146 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 3: So that is what is happening. And so when we 147 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 3: get these weather events, if this same weather event were 148 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 3: to occur fifty years from now, unfortunately, it's likely to 149 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 3: produce even bigger impacts, more rain and things like that. 150 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 3: So big weather events have always happened, but I think 151 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 3: because of climate change, what we're seeing is that they 152 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 3: tend to happen more frequently. That tend to happen, they 153 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 3: tend to be more likely to occur, and when they 154 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 3: do occur, they can run the risk of being even 155 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 3: more extreme than they say. We're fifty years ago or 156 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 3: one hundred years ago. 157 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 2: So when people think of summer that I think of 158 00:08:57,080 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 2: beach days and hanging your sheets out on the line 159 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 2: and having them dry and five minutes of that kind 160 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,599 Speaker 2: of thing. I mean, when do you think, do you 161 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 2: think summer is over in that respect? 162 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 3: Gosh, oh no, no, no, no, summer is not. We're 163 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 3: just getting started now. Look we're in mid January here, 164 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 3: so we still have a good you know, ten days 165 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 3: before the end of January, and we got all feb 166 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 3: which I know is kind of a short month. There's 167 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 3: no mistaking that. But keep in mind, here's a good 168 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 3: thing about being an island nation. An island nation, we're 169 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 3: surrounded by water. Right, here's a good thing. Our ocean 170 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 3: temperatures reach their apex, reach their highest typically in about 171 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 3: early mid February. Well, why is that a big deal? 172 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 3: Because that helps to keep us warmer a bit longer. 173 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 3: So as we go into March, our ocean temperatures are 174 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 3: really quite warm still, they're coming off, you know, they're 175 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 3: not too far removed from when they're at their highest, 176 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 3: and as a consequence, that has an upward influence on 177 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 3: our air temperatures. What am I saying? March can often 178 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 3: be an extension of summer. You know, Yeah, the days 179 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 3: are a bit shorter, but you can get some really 180 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 3: warm temperature still in some really nice weather. So summer 181 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 3: is not over now. It may feel like it. This weekend. 182 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna kid you there. This weekend is gonna 183 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 3: be an apple how Doways say this. I want to 184 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,239 Speaker 3: keep it polite here. It's not gonna be pleasant Saturday. 185 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 3: If look for those, whether it's a long weekend for 186 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 3: you or not, Saturday looks absolutely it'll feel autumnal it's 187 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:38,079 Speaker 3: gonna feel like autumn. There's gonna be strong, gusty southwest winds, 188 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 3: which is a cold winden direction, and this time of 189 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 3: the year, when you get a chilly air in the 190 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 3: middle of summer, the sun angle is still quite strong, 191 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 3: as we know. That creates an environment where we get 192 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 3: these really kind of gusty showers and thunderstorms. So I'm 193 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 3: expecting on Saturday there is going to be across much 194 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 3: of the North Island, especially the hours, thunderstorms, maybe even 195 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 3: some hail. That is likely they persist into Sunday as well. 196 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 3: So it's not looking good. I think Monday, the actual anniversary, 197 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 3: maybe we can salvage it. Maybe one out of three 198 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 3: is okay. So if you're looking to enjoy the weekend, 199 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 3: it's gonna be chilly everywhere, unusually cool, and we're talking 200 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 3: chili for Midsummer, okay, We're not talking like winter chill, 201 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 3: though sudden they think it feels like it. I think 202 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 3: if you're looking to find the best weather this weekend, 203 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 3: where to go for that, it might actually be the 204 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 3: top of the South Island or maybe the parts of Otago. 205 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 3: They may sneak in a pretty good weekend, but those 206 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 3: areas too are gonna be chilly now. It won't last forever. 207 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 3: I think as we get into next week, we're likely 208 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 3: to see a change in the weather pattern. Things will moderate. 209 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 3: But I do think for those who are in the 210 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 3: South Island or maybe going to do some holiday making 211 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 3: in the South Island, as we get toward the end 212 00:11:56,480 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 3: of January into early February, they're like they see some 213 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:03,199 Speaker 3: chillier days. I think the South Island is going to 214 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 3: have days where it's chillier than usual, more of those 215 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 3: days than say the North Island. And I'm pretty confident 216 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 3: if we go farther out, if you want to talk 217 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 3: about February, I do think February is shaping up to 218 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 3: be more of a potentially a warmer month than what 219 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 3: the last say, ten days of January are going to 220 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 3: give us. I e that cold snap I just talked about. 221 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 3: I do think we'll get into some warmer weather again. 222 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 3: So this is no, the summer is not over, that 223 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 3: is the short answer. I do think there's plenty more 224 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 3: summer to come. But you know, we still have to 225 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 3: keep our eyes to the north because anytime we get 226 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,560 Speaker 3: weather coming from the north, that is when we get 227 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:42,240 Speaker 3: these flooding events. That increases the odds or these flooding events. 228 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 3: The north has all the moisture. That's all that moisture is, 229 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 3: and that is fuel for heavy rain. 230 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: Does all of this have anything to do with La Nania? 231 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 3: Well done? Yeah, you've done your homework, so yes it does. 232 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: I've spoken to you enough to know who what is? 233 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 3: Yeah. So look for those who don't know what is, 234 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 3: Laanini is a climate driver. So you may be thinking, 235 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 3: what the heck's a climate driver? Basically a climate driver 236 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 3: when we're doing these long range outlooks, you know, for 237 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 3: the next two months, the next three months, and that 238 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:12,679 Speaker 3: that sort of thing we want to what we what 239 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 3: we're trying to do is first things first, who's going 240 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 3: to be driving Mother Nature's car. If you know who's 241 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 3: driving Mother Nature's car, at least have a good idea, right, 242 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 3: then you're in good position to understand what the themes 243 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 3: are going to be like two months, three months. Again, 244 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 3: we're talking themes. It's not a weather forecast, and La 245 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 3: Nini is one of them. Linina is a climate driver, 246 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 3: and history tells us when we have La Nina, here's 247 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 3: what happens. We tend to get increased chances for lows 248 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 3: coming from the north. Tick. That's what we're seeing today, 249 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 3: tomorrow and through early Thursday, a low coming from the north. 250 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 3: We tend to get more easterlies and we're going to 251 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 3: be seeing that the next couple of days. Tick. It 252 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 3: doesn't mean that happens all the time. It just means 253 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 3: you get less of those westerly winds, which is what 254 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 3: we typically see. You get a reduction of those, and 255 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 3: you get an increase of easterly winds and visitors from 256 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 3: the north. So an answer to your question, the short 257 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 3: answer is yes, this is consistent and congruent with what 258 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,959 Speaker 3: we would expect with li Nina being at the steering 259 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 3: wheel of Mother Nature's car. Now Linin is actually going away, 260 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 3: it all takes some time for the weather to catch 261 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 3: up to Linina going away. These climate drivers tend to 262 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 3: have a long memory. They tend to you tend to 263 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 3: get Linina like weather patterns even when Linina is officially 264 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 3: or formally sort of in the rearview mirror or gone. 265 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 3: So I do think we still have to keep our 266 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 3: eyes to the north for these big weather, big rain 267 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 3: makers right through the autumn season. But here's a little 268 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 3: pro tip. Here's some Here's here's some behind the curtain 269 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 3: speak as we go into winter, so we're going way 270 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 3: out there and to spring. So later this year, you know, 271 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 3: six seven, eight, and nine months from now, it looks 272 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 3: like El Nino may be coming to the party, and 273 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 3: it looks like El Nino maybe become a climate driver. 274 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 3: What that looks like and what that means, we'll have 275 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 3: to wait and see. But just a bit of a 276 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 3: heads up. If that were to occur, that would obviously 277 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 3: mean obviously mean different weather patterns than what is consistent 278 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 3: with La Nina. If that makes sense, we'll. 279 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 2: Have to speak about Nina's mate, Nino later this year. 280 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 4: Brush your Spanish, Chris, if you had to describe this 281 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 4: summer's weather sofar, how would you describe it in a sentence? 282 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 3: Mixed? There's a word, oh you, I'll cut it down 283 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 3: to one word. I would Yeah. Look, I know that's 284 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 3: kind of a you know, a bit of a cop 285 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 3: out potentially, but I mean, let's do a quick let's 286 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 3: do a quick, quick recap. Okay, December was very warm. 287 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 3: I mean, I'll just sheut to my colleague chester Chester. 288 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 3: What was December? The December was that unusually? I was 289 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 3: in a usually warm month? Was it? I? Was in 290 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 3: the twenties. Yeah, I beg your party, but it was 291 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 3: in the top twenty five or top thirty, whatever it was. 292 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 3: So it was unusually warm December, so I mean, I 293 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 3: feel like warmth. That was you know that happened. We 294 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 3: had those really hot temperatures in the eastern part of 295 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 3: both islands with those windy conditions, and then we had, 296 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 3: you know, we had some pretty cold temperatures across the 297 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 3: South Island after New Year's so it has been mixed. 298 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 3: Now we're dealing with this big rainfall across the country, 299 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 3: so it has been mixed. I do think, I do 300 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 3: think somewhere is not over with. As I said before, Yes, 301 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 3: it'll feel like it this weekend for Auckland Anniversary weekend, 302 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 3: and it will feel like it at times for the 303 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 3: South Island for the end of the month. But I 304 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 3: think there's more summer to come, and I feel confident 305 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 3: about that. Look, I'm a husband, I'm a father, and 306 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 3: I'm a meteorologist, so I'm used to being wrong. But 307 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 3: we'll see how we go. 308 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 2: Well, I won't pack away my bag each blanket just yet. 309 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 3: No, don't do that. That'd be silly. You'd be missing 310 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 3: out there'd be some, especially for the North I think 311 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 3: the North Island probably, Yeah, twenty seventh warmest, my colleague Chester, 312 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 3: thank you for that. So you know, when you know, 313 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 3: we think of one hundred and ten Decembers, twenty said 314 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 3: with warmest, and that means something. But look, if you're 315 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 3: in the North Island, I think you have the best 316 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 3: chances for seeing more persistent summer type weather or you know, 317 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 3: quick essential summer like weather, if that makes sense. 318 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Chris. 319 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. I enjoy coming on the program. 320 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 5: That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You 321 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 5: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 322 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,879 Speaker 5: at enzidhrald dot co dot enz. The Front Page is 323 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,919 Speaker 5: hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels Caine. Dicky is 324 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 5: our studio operator, Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and 325 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 5: our executive producer. 326 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 1: Is Jane Ye. 327 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 2: Follow the Front Page on the iheartapp or wherever you 328 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 2: get your. 329 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:06,400 Speaker 5: Podcasts, and join us next time for another look beyond 330 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 5: the headlines.