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Speaker 1: It started the program. We talked about the fact that

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Speaker 1: like one in four of us have bought something from Timu,

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Speaker 1: the Chinese retailer, in the past three months. It's been

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Speaker 1: hugely popular, a popular thanks to the very cheap prices

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Speaker 1: and free shipping. Liam dan Is, The Herald's Business editor

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Speaker 1: at large, with us on this alien Get a heather

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Speaker 1: you brought from Timu?

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Speaker 2: No, No, never have. Actually I guess my kids might have.

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Speaker 2: I don't know. And then there's another one in the

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Speaker 2: story I was reading a fourteen percent of Kiwis have

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Speaker 2: brought something from Shane Shine Sheen.

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Speaker 1: We're not sure how to pronounce it.

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Speaker 2: This is like me looking at the bands lists on

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Speaker 2: the rock music festivals now and it's not really.

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Speaker 1: You remember this a case. So Kenzie the Zuma, are

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Speaker 1: you a zoomer, Kenzie, Kenzi the Zoomer is still at

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Speaker 1: work at the moment, which is an unusual thing. And

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Speaker 1: she says it's Sheen.

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Speaker 2: Sheen, Okay, very good, and I'm sure it's probably it's

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Speaker 2: probably really great, high quality stuff. As I don't know.

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Speaker 1: It's Rubbishkeenzi, it's total rubbish, she said, It's just nonsense.

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Speaker 1: But it's cheap right, So if you're just going to

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Speaker 1: use it the one time, then happy days, like for

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Speaker 1: a party or whatever. Okay, what is it doing to retailers?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think it's a concern because obviously retailer has

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Speaker 2: been sort of down and out having a terrible time

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Speaker 2: because of the you know, inflation, recession, all these domestic

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Speaker 2: issues that we've got, and then it feels like we're

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Speaker 2: going to sort of wake up from that, and this

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Speaker 2: structural issue, this structural change in retailing is going to,

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Speaker 2: you know, just just make it that much harder for

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Speaker 2: some of these retailers to come back. I recall it

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Speaker 2: was only Dune actually, but in the last GDP figures

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Speaker 2: we saw signs of this because there was buried in

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Speaker 2: there there was a statistic for consumer imports of low

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Speaker 2: value goods that showed that they had risen fifty percent

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Speaker 2: in the last year and up twenty percent in the

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Speaker 2: March quarter alone. So if that's you know, if that's

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Speaker 2: the kind of trajectory we're on and we've already got

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Speaker 2: a quarter of Kiwi's using Timu, you've got to wonder

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Speaker 2: where it ends. I hope it ends with them people

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Speaker 2: realizing they probably need less stuff and maybe by some

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Speaker 2: more high quality stuff and have it last. But I

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Speaker 2: don't know that that trend is suddenly about to descend

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Speaker 2: on us.

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Speaker 1: Is this I mean, so this is obviously part of

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Speaker 1: the warehouses problem. Is it possible for us to kind

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Speaker 1: of extrapolate how much of this is that is causing

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Speaker 1: the warehouses problems and how much of the warehouse's problems

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Speaker 1: is just the warehouse?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. I think I think it's an issue

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Speaker 2: for retailer is like a warehouse because you know, if

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Speaker 2: you're a small retailer on the on a main street

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Speaker 2: New Zealand, I guess you can go up up market

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Speaker 2: and you know, sell the good stuff that people buy

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Speaker 2: for special occasions and things, and then you're not not

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Speaker 2: competing with Timu. But if your model is based on

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Speaker 2: importing cheap manufactured Chinese goods, then they're cutting out the

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Speaker 2: middleman here and that's the problem. And look, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: it's multi factoral. The warehouse is issues, so I would

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Speaker 2: be hesitant to say it's one thing, but I think

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Speaker 2: this is a sort of a big downward pressure on

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Speaker 2: sales even beyond the sort of short term economic cycle.

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Speaker 2: So it will be interesting to see if it can

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Speaker 2: overcome that in the next year.

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Speaker 1: Hey, listen on the inflation number yesterday, and what the

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Speaker 1: ocr does Are you picking fifty or seventy five?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I reckon maybe seventy five.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, yeah, I meansh this is the thing.

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Speaker 1: If they go seventy five, right, that is an admission

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Speaker 1: that they stuff this up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess it's how much you know, But surely

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Speaker 2: they've got to do the right thing for the economy.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know that seventy five is yet, but

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Speaker 2: there are signs that, you know, if the economy is

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Speaker 2: really as bad as people are sort of saying and feeling,

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Speaker 2: and you know, you could make the case it was

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Speaker 2: a special event COVID the pandemic inflation happened. Rates had

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Speaker 2: to go up, and they had to go up in

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Speaker 2: a sort of a crisis mode. If the crisis is over,

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Speaker 2: they should come down fast. And you know, whether who

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Speaker 2: was right or wrong or whatever, that sort of secondary

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Speaker 2: to getting the settings right quickly. I know it's still

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Speaker 2: an outside chance, but the markets have it about forty

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Speaker 2: percent odds on a seventy five point basis cat, so

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Speaker 2: you know, it'll only take a little bit of bit

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Speaker 2: more bad news. Whose the unemployment data coming in a

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Speaker 2: bit lower, a bit higher I guess it would be,

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Speaker 2: and you could could easily see.

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Speaker 1: That brilliant het. Liam love chatting to you, really appreciate

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Speaker 1: its Liam Dan, the Herald's business enter at large.

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Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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