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Speaker 1: First, the government's going to stay in debt longer than

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Speaker 1: it thought it would back in May. This is the

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Speaker 1: hayfer that's come out today. The surplus delayed again for

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Speaker 1: another year out to twenty thirty. We won't start paying

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Speaker 1: down our debt in this country until then. Growth is

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Speaker 1: coming on but slower than expected. So back points six

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Speaker 1: percent four twenty four to twenty five, Ford, three point

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Speaker 1: three for twenty five twenty six, and three percent for

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Speaker 1: twenty six twenty seven, Tariffs, inflation, tourism, numbers, population, all

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Speaker 1: contributing factors. Nicola Willis is the Finance Minister. Good evening,

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Speaker 1: Good evening, Do you take responsibility for our lackluster growth?

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Speaker 2: I take responsibility for turning it around, and what we

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Speaker 2: have shared in today's forecasts is accelerating growth next year,

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Speaker 2: low inflation growth throughout the forecast period, two hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy thousand jobs being created, low interest rates in all

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Speaker 2: the conditions for New Zealanders to get ahead.

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Speaker 1: Labour wants you to take responsibility for the fact that

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Speaker 1: we haven't had significant or meaningful growth in the last year.

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Speaker 1: You've been the Minister of growth all that time. Do

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Speaker 1: you take accountability well?

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Speaker 2: In Treasury's assessment the effect of Donald Trump's tariff announcement

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Speaker 2: in April on our economy was significant, and of course

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Speaker 2: it came off the back of what was already a

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Speaker 2: difficult recovery following Labour's period of sky high inflation and

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Speaker 2: the very high interest rates that were used to arrest that.

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Speaker 2: It's significant that even in the midst of that, the

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Speaker 2: government has taken pro growth measures, including, for example, the

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Speaker 2: Investment boost tax policy to encourage business investment, moves to

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Speaker 2: replace the Resource Management Act, to cap rates, to ensure

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Speaker 2: that we can deliver more housing, to boost tourism. We've

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Speaker 2: been at it as a government taking pro growth measures

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Speaker 2: and maintaining fiscal discipline, which is something that you won't

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Speaker 2: hear Labour talking about.

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Speaker 1: So when it comes to pushing the surplus out and

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Speaker 1: this says basically, you won't achieve it when you have

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Speaker 1: the fiscal tension that you want to achieve it. But

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Speaker 1: you're saying you will stick to twenty twenty nine not

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Speaker 1: twenty thirty. How do you do that when the books

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Speaker 1: say you can't.

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Speaker 2: Well, a forecasts do show us reaching a surplus over

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Speaker 2: this period, and the question is whether we get there

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Speaker 2: in twenty nine or twenty thirty. The twenty nine deficit

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Speaker 2: that's being forecast relative is very small, and so I

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Speaker 2: remain confident that we can get there. What that will

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Speaker 2: take is just a small revision to the growth upwards,

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Speaker 2: combined with fiscal discipline, and those are two things that

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Speaker 2: our government has committed to. So we're sticking to our

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Speaker 2: surplus target.

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Speaker 1: You've committed to keeping new borrowing to two point four

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Speaker 1: billion dollars next year. Given we're not bringing in as

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Speaker 1: much cash as we had hoped, would it not be

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Speaker 1: prudent to cut that figure further?

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Speaker 2: No, because that is what is required to ensure we

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Speaker 2: can make the investments needed to increase health service delivery,

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Speaker 2: to ensure our schools have the resources they need to

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Speaker 2: pay their teachers and deliver learning, that our police have

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Speaker 2: the resources they need on the front line, and to

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Speaker 2: continue our build and defense force capability. It's a very

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Speaker 2: small number, though, relative to recent budgets ran to give

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Speaker 2: you a sense of context, in the twenty twenty two

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Speaker 2: budget under the previous government, new operating spending was nine

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Speaker 2: point seven billion a year. We're proposing two point four,

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Speaker 2: So this is a much more modest level of spending

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Speaker 2: than was the case under the previous government, and we

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Speaker 2: can achieve it by continuing our rigor around, constantly finding

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Speaker 2: savings and efficiency.

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Speaker 1: There's a vicious cycle thing that happens here, isn't there

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Speaker 1: When the economy does bad, people leave. When people leave,

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Speaker 1: we can't tax some fifty thousand fewer taxpayers in the

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Speaker 1: country than expect it. How do you turn that? How

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Speaker 1: long does it take to turn that around?

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Speaker 2: Well, I was really pleased to see the most recent

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Speaker 2: update from Stats which showed the number of people leaving

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Speaker 2: is actually the lowest in three years, and so that

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Speaker 2: is starting to turn around. On the latest stats, the

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Speaker 2: census starter updated the underlying assumptions on popular and yes

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Speaker 2: that is slightly lower. But I'm confident that as our

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Speaker 2: economy recovers, as there are more jobs available which is

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Speaker 2: being forecast, as there's more growth and comes arising, that

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Speaker 2: more New Zealanders will see they can have a great

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Speaker 2: future here and they will choose to stay.

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Speaker 1: You've said in your speech today, there are a lot

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Speaker 1: of things the government can't control. Do you as a

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Speaker 1: party and labor both need to be a little more

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Speaker 1: honest with New Zealanders about what it is you actually

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Speaker 1: can fix and what you can't, because I feel like

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Speaker 1: we're getting taken for a ride. One of you says

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Speaker 1: we will get we will fix this, the other says

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Speaker 1: we will fix that, and actually then you turn around

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Speaker 1: when the books come out and say it's not fixable,

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Speaker 1: it's not in our hands.

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Speaker 2: Well, I disagree with that. I do think there is

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Speaker 2: a lot that we can control. We can control our

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Speaker 2: discretionary spending decisions and the impact that has on inflation

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Speaker 2: and therefore interest rates. I stand by our track record

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Speaker 2: in that regard. We can control whether the policies we

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Speaker 2: deliver a pro growth or anti growth. And in that sense,

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Speaker 2: we've said yes to replacing the Resource Management Act. We've

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Speaker 2: said yes to tax relief, we've said yes to backing businesses,

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Speaker 2: which are all the things consistent with supporting growth in

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Speaker 2: this economy. On the other hand, my opponents on the

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Speaker 2: other side consistently say no to those things, and so

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Speaker 2: they have to take responsibility for those positions.

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Speaker 1: Minister, appreciate your time. That's Nicola Willis, Finance Minister. For

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