1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,520
Speaker 1: Back home GDP day today. Quarter two numbers do out

2
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:05,880
Speaker 1: at ten forty five, most bank economists expecting a point

3
00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:09,479
Speaker 1: four drop, worse than the reserve reserve banks expected point three,

4
00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,799
Speaker 1: but optimism remains for a quarter three bounce back. Mike Jones,

5
00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:16,680
Speaker 1: B and Z Chief Economists, Morning, Mike, all right, you're

6
00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,279
Speaker 1: slightly more gloomy than the rest of the bank economists.

7
00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:24,200
Speaker 2: Why a sliver more gloomy. Yeah, half percent decline is

8
00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:28,240
Speaker 2: what we're picking, not too far from the condensus, but

9
00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:30,640
Speaker 2: you know, when we add up all the numbers, that's

10
00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,040
Speaker 2: what we get. I think it's pretty clear that the

11
00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,559
Speaker 2: economy fell into a bit of a pothole in the

12
00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:39,240
Speaker 2: second quarter. We'll just get out from this morning's numbers exactly.

13
00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,280
Speaker 1: How much, And obviously this is backwards looking. Do do

14
00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,320
Speaker 1: we expect quarter three will give us back what quarter

15
00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:46,320
Speaker 1: two taketh.

16
00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,520
Speaker 2: Largely? Yeah, we think this is probably the low point.

17
00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,720
Speaker 2: We've actually just lifted our FUKA for the third quarter.

18
00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:57,040
Speaker 2: The quarter announced its two point seven percent. We've got

19
00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,560
Speaker 2: a few lumpy factors in Q two we think will

20
00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:03,040
Speaker 2: come out and help us in the current quorder. Gortible

21
00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:05,400
Speaker 2: pictures stabilized a little bit we've had more rate caps,

22
00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,919
Speaker 2: so those things should help restore a bit of go forward.

23
00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,319
Speaker 1: How are you worrying other services set? The manufacturing numbers

24
00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:14,000
Speaker 1: that we've had.

25
00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,400
Speaker 2: Not what we would have liked or perhaps expected. I mean,

26
00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,399
Speaker 2: if you've sort of looked through the trend in those

27
00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,960
Speaker 2: PMI and PSI numbers, it is still positive, but kind

28
00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,000
Speaker 2: of barely. There's not a whole lot of momentum there.

29
00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,759
Speaker 2: But it does seem like, generally speaking, a step back.

30
00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:37,360
Speaker 2: The numbers are tilting in a positive direction, but looks

31
00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:39,600
Speaker 2: like it's just going to take a little more time

32
00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,800
Speaker 2: before we're kind of properly back up and been growing again.

33
00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,240
Speaker 1: The interesting piece on interest dot co us today is

34
00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,280
Speaker 1: saying that the December and March bumps that we saw

35
00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:52,440
Speaker 1: were more relief activity rather than the start of a

36
00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,320
Speaker 1: real recovery. Do you agree with that or do you

37
00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:57,280
Speaker 1: think that it was we were on the way and

38
00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:01,960
Speaker 1: then it was Trump and trade hitting sentiment and affecting everything.

39
00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, there's possibly a bit of that. I think

40
00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:12,400
Speaker 2: there was some genuine growth happening. It's a two steps forward,

41
00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:17,200
Speaker 2: one step back sort of growth pattern. I think the

42
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:21,360
Speaker 2: growth outlooks just relatively fragile. It's stops start because we

43
00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,400
Speaker 2: don't have blowing in our favor some of those things

44
00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,760
Speaker 2: that often help us in a recovery, things like rising

45
00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:31,839
Speaker 2: house prices and booming migration, extra governments spending, that sort

46
00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,400
Speaker 2: of stuff. So without that stuff, I think we're going

47
00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:36,800
Speaker 2: to stay in this sort of choppy still a recovery,

48
00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,320
Speaker 2: but a choppy back and forth, stop start sort of environment.

49
00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:44,040
Speaker 1: Mike, the most important question on everyone's lips, especially Christopher

50
00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:48,400
Speaker 1: Luxon's when does your average household actually start to feel

51
00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,320
Speaker 1: like things are getting bit, like we're getting ahead.

52
00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:56,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's the big question I think for us.

53
00:02:56,440 --> 00:03:00,280
Speaker 2: When we look at the outlook it's going to we

54
00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,200
Speaker 2: think until probably that the final quarter of this year,

55
00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,880
Speaker 2: for example, so Q four before GDP is back up

56
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,160
Speaker 2: to that high watermark of the start of last year,

57
00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,320
Speaker 2: and at that time we're going to start to see,

58
00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,639
Speaker 2: we think, the unemployment rate start to turn down. It's

59
00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,079
Speaker 2: going to take some time, but that's when we might

60
00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,160
Speaker 2: think the labor market will start to turn I think

61
00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:25,239
Speaker 2: that's probably when households will start to feel a little

62
00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:29,280
Speaker 2: more confident and better about the economy. But there's no

63
00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:33,359
Speaker 2: doubt it's going to be probably well into next year

64
00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:37,240
Speaker 2: before it actually kind of feels properly, properly like a recovery,

65
00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:37,680
Speaker 2: all right?

66
00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,240
Speaker 1: Might we live in hope? Thanks Mate and Mike Jones,

67
00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:41,480
Speaker 1: bean z Intief Economist.

68
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,280
Speaker 2: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live

69
00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,400
Speaker 2: to News Talks it'd be from five am weekdays, or

70
00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:50,360
Speaker 2: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio