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Speaker 1: Thomas Coglin, the Herald's political editors, with us A. Thomas,

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Speaker 1: are you confused by these poles?

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Speaker 2: I am? I am two poles one TV and Z

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Speaker 2: very in last night showing the coalition holding onto power

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Speaker 2: sixty three seats for the three coalition parties versus fifty

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Speaker 2: eight are for the opposition parties and the other one

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Speaker 2: as the r n Z read polls that used to

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Speaker 2: run on TV three and it basically shows the opposite,

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Speaker 2: so it's an even narrower margin. But the the three

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Speaker 2: opposition parties taking power off the coalitions so are quite confusing.

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Speaker 2: Few trends New Zealand FIRS doing quite well YEP, and

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Speaker 2: National down. But the rest of it is a bit

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Speaker 2: wacky racist.

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Speaker 1: But as somebody in polling told me today, the one

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Speaker 1: thing that you can actually see from this is it's

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Speaker 1: going to be tight, right. There is a like it's

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Speaker 1: fairly consistent in.

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Speaker 2: That, yeah, undred percent. It's a scrap over percentage points

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Speaker 2: here and there, and I think you see that in

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Speaker 2: the House. There's a lot of tension every day because

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Speaker 2: every every tiny percentage point of vote metters. I think

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Speaker 2: you know, one of the probably one of the more

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Speaker 2: interesting things I saw and again there are two different

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Speaker 2: results on this, but the pay equity stuff. The TV

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Speaker 2: and zall poll on that thirty nine percent of people

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Speaker 2: actually supported the change are in Z poll and it

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Speaker 2: slightly differently and got a lower lower number in support.

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Speaker 2: I think it was down to twenty nine.

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Speaker 1: But it's the difference polling. What was the difference in

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Speaker 1: how they did it?

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Speaker 2: I believe it is the specific wording of the question.

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Speaker 2: I don't actually have the wording that they used, and

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Speaker 2: I think I readers has gone more online now and

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Speaker 2: Van Bavarian still uses the mixture of landlines and mobiles. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I tried to find the specific wording of the question

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Speaker 1: and I couldn't find it. It wasn't published, but it

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Speaker 1: appeared it was simply were you for or against the overhaul?

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Speaker 2: That be that? Right? Yeah, yes, but now I don't

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Speaker 2: have the wording right in front of me. But I

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Speaker 2: think TV and Z asked that they might have couched

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Speaker 2: it and lighted the savings as well. Oh yeah, so

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Speaker 2: so you might sort of see that vote just thinking oh,

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Speaker 2: you know, look.

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Speaker 1: So once you factor the money and then people go, actually,

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Speaker 1: that's probably a good idea.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And I don't have the wedding right in front

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Speaker 2: of me. But you know, it is it is that

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Speaker 2: context that matters, and I think I do think it

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Speaker 2: is interesting because you know that that that pay equity

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Speaker 2: decision was really at the heart of the budget and

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Speaker 2: if Labor struggled to you know, win voters over about

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Speaker 2: the fact that that that that that they that labor

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Speaker 2: believes that decision was the wrong decision, then you know,

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Speaker 2: if they can't make that argument then but they.

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Speaker 1: Haven't, Thomas. They haven't made the argument, have they, Because

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Speaker 1: both poles are consistent in that support and that the

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Speaker 1: opposition is only forty five to forty three percent, that's

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Speaker 1: not a lot.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, and I think that's sort of the point

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to make, as I think if labor can't

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Speaker 2: capitalize on that, and that's a bit of a gift.

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Speaker 2: If if the government is cutting stuff like PA equity,

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Speaker 2: that is a gift to the opposition, And if labor

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Speaker 2: can't capitalize that in a strong way and start posting

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Speaker 2: you know, a margin, a larger margin ahead of the coalition,

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Speaker 2: then it does suggest that voters aren't quite you know,

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Speaker 2: they might not be liking what the government's doing. They

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Speaker 2: might not like the government. In fact, these polls do

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Speaker 2: show a lot of dissatisfaction, but they're not quite willing

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Speaker 2: to roll the dice on someone else.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if you can't run this one home, which as

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Speaker 1: you say, was an absolute gimmee, then how on earth

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Speaker 1: are you going to win the election? I think that

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Speaker 1: that's fair. Now, do you think like me that these

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Speaker 1: letters sent out to the state owned enterprises telling them

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Speaker 1: to sharpen up is preparing us for asset sales next term?

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Speaker 2: Yes, one hundred percent. That started. This is my personal belief,

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Speaker 2: but it started on day one when the coalition was

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Speaker 2: sworn in. There are a lot of underperforming assets in

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Speaker 2: the in the public sector. So you've got Landcorp, New

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Speaker 2: Zealand Post are the ones we singled out, and Cordia

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Speaker 2: and the Story Today. You've also got things like TVNZ.

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Speaker 2: I don't think TVNZ will be sold though, but there

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Speaker 2: are a whole lot of assets soees that are still

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Speaker 2: entirely owned by the government and I would certainly that

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Speaker 2: National and Act in particular will campaign on selling down

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Speaker 2: those stakes. I think it's very very likely at the

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Speaker 2: next election, and I think for that reason, New Zealand

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Speaker 2: versus is probably going to campaign on forcing national and

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Speaker 2: acts to retain ownership of them.

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Speaker 1: And I reckon, actually the public appetite will be okay

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Speaker 1: for it, don't you.

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Speaker 2: Well, I certainly these letters make a very compelling case

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Speaker 2: that the return on equity for these these assets is

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Speaker 2: not very good, that they are not performing, and the

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Speaker 2: Treasury has made this case time and time and again

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Speaker 2: that these assets are not performing particularly well compared to

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Speaker 2: a benchmark private you know, fully privately held company. And

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Speaker 2: obviously you know the government needs the cash. So so

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Speaker 2: so you put two and two together and yeah, you

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Speaker 2: never know that the public might be might be into it.

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Speaker 2: That said, I mean, the last time I've seen I

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Speaker 2: saw a poll on asset sales, it wasn't that flash.

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Speaker 2: And then obviously the Key government did manage to part

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Speaker 2: privatize the state assets, but the opposition even then was

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Speaker 2: quite strong enough to trigger that citizens initiated referendum which

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Speaker 2: which which passed. People didn't want them. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Actually, fair point that you make, Thomas. Thank you very much,

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Speaker 1: appreciate it. Thomas Coglan, the Herald's political editor. For more

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Speaker 1: from Heather Duplessy, Allen Drive, listen live to News Talks.

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