1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,080 Speaker 1: Two months ago, a couple of assassination attempts, any number 2 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: of ongoing court cases, several debates, one involving a candidate 3 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: no longer in the race, and polls that are so 4 00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: tight you can't separate Harris from Trump. So let's get 5 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,039 Speaker 1: a feel for where we think we might be at 6 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: with our favorite America watching Nick Bryant, who's back with us? 7 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 2: Nick? 8 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: Morning to you. 9 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:18,639 Speaker 2: Hey, Mike, we're at the point where the rubber meets 10 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 2: the road. 11 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: That's exactly right. Since we last talked, what are your 12 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 1: thoughts on Harris as a candidate. 13 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 3: Well, I think she's a lot better candidate than we 14 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 3: thought she was going to be. I mean, it was 15 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 3: all this Carmela Mania stuff that came as a real surprise. 16 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 3: I mean, Mike, a lot of people when Joe Biden 17 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 3: really sort of destroyed himself in that first televised debate 18 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 3: with Donald Trump really thought that KRMLA wasn't ready for 19 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 3: prime time. They were thinking of people like the California 20 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,239 Speaker 3: Governor Gavin Newson. They were thinking of people like the 21 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 3: Michigan governor Gretchen Whittner, a woman who's proven that she 22 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 3: can do well in the Ross belt obviously as vice 23 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 3: president as the supposed next in line. Karmala Harris was 24 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 3: on that list, but a lot of people didn't want 25 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 3: it to end up the nominee, including I think people 26 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 3: like Barack Obama who were mooting the possibility of some 27 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 3: sort of nominating process that was shorthand for saying, let's 28 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 3: not go with Kamala. I think they were worried about 29 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 3: two really big negatives in their mind. At least one 30 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 3: was her gender and one was her race. I mean, 31 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 3: I think there are a lot of people who were 32 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 3: worried that a black woman could not win those crucial 33 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 3: states in the Rust Belt. But Mike, I mean, she 34 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 3: really surprised people. I mean, then it started off with 35 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 3: the speed at which she got the nomination. I think 36 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 3: that showed that she was a politician to be reckoned with. 37 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 3: I think people started looking at her anew They thought 38 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 3: it was crazy that she'd been hidden away really for 39 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 3: the first two years of the Biden presidency. And I 40 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:44,680 Speaker 3: think on the very night Mike, there was a turning point. 41 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 3: She did an interview with Alison Cooper on CNN very 42 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 3: shortly after but Biden's disastrous poll of debate performance. She 43 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 3: came across very well. She admitted what we'd all seen 44 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 3: that it wasn't a very good performance. She was commanding. 45 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 3: She sat in front of American flags, look presidential. She's 46 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 3: sounded presidential, I think in a lot of verde As 47 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 3: by as that was when the turnaround began. I think 48 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 3: she is strong, but I do think she still has weaknesses, 49 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,799 Speaker 3: particularly on the economy and particularly on immigration. 50 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 1: All Right, A couple of things out of that, as 51 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 1: separating herself out from the Biden record, and Trump is 52 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 1: making much of this at the moment. If you want 53 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: to do all of this, how come you haven't done 54 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: it in the last three and a half years. It's 55 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 1: not an unfair attack, is it. 56 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:24,079 Speaker 2: Yeah. 57 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 3: I think she beat them in a televised debate. But 58 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 3: I think his strongest response and his strongest statement, was 59 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 3: right at the end where he said, you've been speaking 60 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 3: about all these things you want to do, but you've 61 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 3: had four years to do them, so why haven't you 62 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 3: done them? I think that is a statement that really resonates. 63 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 3: She's trying to come across as a change candidate. Obviously, 64 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 3: in an election where people do want change, Trump has 65 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 3: a harder thing to persuade people on because he was 66 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 3: the president four years ago. I think one of the 67 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 3: problems that Krmala Harris has it's the same problem in 68 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 3: some ways that Al Gore had in two thousand. He 69 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 3: tried to distance himself with Bill Clinton, and in doing so, 70 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 3: he distanced himself stuff that was good a parat the 71 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 3: Clinton presidency. He was so keen to distance himself from 72 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 3: the sort of scandal and the Monica Lewitsky side of 73 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,079 Speaker 3: the Clinton presidency that he didn't embrace the good, which 74 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 3: was a really strong economy. And I think to a 75 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 3: certain extent, Karmala Harris says the same problem. She's trying 76 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 3: to distance herself from Biden. She's trying to say I'm 77 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 3: the change candidate, and that makes perfect sense. But there 78 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,959 Speaker 3: are some stuff that's happening in the Biden administration which 79 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 3: is good, and I think, you know, you've got to 80 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 3: kind of trust the American electure on stuff like this. 81 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 3: They can differentiate what's good and what's bad. I mean, 82 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 3: the economy is coming out of a slump. You know, 83 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 3: the job numbers last week with very good inflation is 84 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 3: coming down. I realized the felt economy for a lot 85 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 3: of voters doesn't feel the same. There's a lot of 86 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 3: nostalgia for the Trump economy, lower interest rates, lower gas prices. 87 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 3: But I think it's a tricky one for Karmala to 88 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 3: sort of say, you know, there are some good things 89 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 3: that have happened during the Biden presidency, and there are 90 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 3: things I need to distance myself from, and that leads 91 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 3: to some of the mixed messaging and on questions like 92 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 3: the economy, Mike, I mean, this just strikes me as 93 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 3: just amazing. She still hasn't got a brilliant, really well 94 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 3: home wrestle answer that simple question, what do you do 95 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 3: to solve the cost of living crisis? 96 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 2: What do you do? On the economy? 97 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 3: She does serve up these word salads on that basic 98 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 3: question when she'd have thought she'd have figured out by it. 99 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: Oh exactly. So I'm going to come to a thing 100 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: called the Breakthrough, which is a polling project that tracks 101 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 1: how public perceive and what they hear on this. But 102 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 1: one of the things they are saying about her is 103 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,839 Speaker 1: she doesn't actually say anything. She just gibbles. Is that 104 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 1: true or fear or not. 105 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 2: It's a real problem for her. 106 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,359 Speaker 3: I think during that debate performance, right, she was in 107 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 3: excellent form. I thought that the messaging was pretty sharp. 108 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 3: The one problem I thought she had was in the 109 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 3: first question, which was the economy. And the problem for 110 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 3: Kamanda Harris, of course, is the economy is the paramount 111 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 3: issue for most focus It's more important than what happened 112 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 3: on January the sixth, It's more important than what's happening 113 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 3: in the Middle East right now. It is more important 114 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 3: than abortion. It is the single most important issue. And 115 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 3: I think on that she hasn't got a particularly good answer. 116 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,719 Speaker 3: They pursued a media strategy up until this week, really, 117 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:00,720 Speaker 3: which is to not do much for media, and I 118 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 3: think that's been a real problem because she just doesn't 119 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 3: sad match for it. 120 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 2: You know what it's like make. 121 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 3: The more you do it, the more fluid you get. 122 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 3: You get into kind of responses that are familiar. You've 123 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 3: used them before, You've used formulations that work. And the 124 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 3: problem with the media strategy, she hasn't had the chance 125 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 3: to do that. I thought she was very good when 126 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 3: she came out of the gate. She went straight to Wisconsin, 127 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 3: which is one of the key states. She gave that 128 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 3: great line, you know, I'm a prosecutor, I've dealt with cheats. 129 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 3: I've topped with felons. I'm used to Donald Trump's type. 130 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 3: That was very good messaging and it really cut through 131 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 3: a straight away. But I think the message on the 132 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 3: economy has been really, really poor. And her messaging on immigration, 133 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 3: which is another key, is she hasn't been great either. 134 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:45,919 Speaker 3: And I think you know, if you're looking for the 135 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 3: weaknesses in the in the Biden camp, I think that's 136 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 3: that's a really huge weakness. 137 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,480 Speaker 1: All right, So trump nick last time the argument was 138 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: he's got the vote that he's got. They love them, 139 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: they're elected on, they're rested on. He's not growing it. 140 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 1: Is that still true? 141 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean he does have this senling doesn't hear 142 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 3: forty seven percent, it seems, and that may be enough 143 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 3: to win the president's seaman. Let's face it, they've got 144 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 3: an electoral college advantage. I mean, Trump won't win the 145 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 3: nationwide vote, i'd have thought, but he could win the presidency, 146 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 3: as he did in twenty sixteen, by winning the key 147 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,280 Speaker 3: states that you need to win, and in that election, 148 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 3: of course, it was the Roughs Belt. I don't think 149 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 3: Donald Trump's as strong a candidate as he was in 150 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 3: twenty sixteen. We were talking about the problems with Carmla 151 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 3: Harris's messaging. I think Trump has them too. I mean, 152 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 3: he's just not as articular, he's not as sharp, he's 153 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 3: not as match fit as he was in twenty sixteen. Crucially, 154 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:37,559 Speaker 3: he's not doing so many rallies. He's doing a really 155 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:41,839 Speaker 3: small number compared to what he did in twenty and sixteen. 156 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 3: I think sometimes presidential election is a little bit like sport, Mike, 157 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 3: the person who shows they are desperate to win it 158 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 3: and king to win it often wins it. And I 159 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 3: just don't get that same hunger for victory in twenty 160 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 3: twenty four that Trump had in twenty sixteen. And that's 161 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 3: reflected in the number of rallies that he's doing. And 162 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 3: he's an old man, and I mean he's seventy eight 163 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 3: years old now, and obviously the age issue in this 164 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 3: election has been completely upended. It was the thing that 165 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:07,919 Speaker 3: obviously force Biden from the race, but now it's a 166 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 3: problem for Donald Trump as well. He just doesn't seem 167 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 3: to be quite as strong a candidate as he was 168 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 3: in twenty sixteen. And he does have this problem about 169 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 3: growing the base. And I mean, Mike, it's such a 170 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 3: close race, now, isn't it. I mean, it's just all 171 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 3: down to these seven states. And I mean, of those seven, 172 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 3: I keep on looking at those restpot states and Wisconsin, 173 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 3: Pennsylvania and Michigan. 174 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 2: The race is just so tight there. It does look 175 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 2: like Kamena Harris has a slight advantage at the moment. 176 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,239 Speaker 2: But we're talking about shifts of just a few thousand votes. 177 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 2: We're talking about who can get their vote out. 178 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 3: You know, one of the things that Trump always thinks 179 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 3: is that there are people out there who don't ordinarily vote, 180 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 3: many of them young men, who they hope can get 181 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 3: to the polls, And anything that happens in the next 182 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 3: few weeks, anything that just shifts a few votes in 183 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 3: a few different places, could have the impact to actually 184 00:07:58,960 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 3: decide this race. 185 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: Old October Surprise Wall's v vance. Have they made a 186 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: material difference or not? 187 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 2: I thought it was a really interesting debate. 188 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 3: I think we found out that Tim Walls perhaps isn't 189 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 3: the kind of huge bonus to the Democratic ticket that 190 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 3: we thought he was Initially. I was surprised how in 191 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 3: particular he was who sort of seen a bit gaff prone, 192 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 3: didn't he when he said he sort of befriended mass shooters, 193 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 3: that kind of weird thing. 194 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 2: He wasn't sort of. 195 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 3: He emerged as this sort of great communicated didn't he 196 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 3: the kind of America's dad, the high school football coach, 197 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 3: the Friday night lights thing. And of course, you know 198 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 3: JD Vance was sort of characterized as this kind of 199 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 3: oversized frat boy, you know, somebody who was really nasty 200 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 3: or the childless cat laders. I mean, he came out 201 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 3: just trying to show there's no more mister nasty guy, 202 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 3: didn't he? He had this nice guy persona. 203 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 2: But that final. 204 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 3: Question, I mean, I think for ninety minutes in the 205 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 3: debate he was totally on top. But it was that 206 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 3: final question about Jeremy the sixth, wasn't it, And that 207 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 3: final refusal to accept that button had actually won in 208 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 3: twenty twenty, that is the clip that has sort of 209 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 3: survived the debate and had the big after life after 210 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:05,439 Speaker 3: the debate. So I think, you know, as I say, 211 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 3: anything that shifts the dial in this election. Normally vice 212 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 3: presidential debates don't matter at all, but I think that 213 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 3: one could because I think a lot of women, especially 214 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 3: are really not that keen on Jady Vance and often Mike. 215 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 3: It just comes down to wavering women. A lot of 216 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 3: them who live in these suburbs of the rost belt 217 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 3: states like Philadelphia, like Milwaukee. 218 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 2: You know, a lot of them just don't like JD. 219 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 3: Vance and that could be crucial, especially his answers on abortion, 220 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 3: which is another issue which is going to drive a 221 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 3: lot of vote for Kamla Harris. 222 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: So, I take it from your comment to RIDERPEC yesterday suggested, 223 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:39,079 Speaker 1: it's not unlikely, it's not impossible that you could get 224 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 1: a result on the night college vote of two seventy 225 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:43,679 Speaker 1: to two sixty eight. It's that tight. Do you see that? 226 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 3: Yeah? And this is really crucial because that would involve 227 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 3: a state that we don't often talk about, which is Nebraska. 228 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 3: Forty eight out of the fifty states might a lot. 229 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 3: They're electoral votes on the basis of win it takes all. 230 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 3: If you win just one vote more than your rival 231 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 3: in Pennsylvania, you get all of Pennsylvania's nineteen electoral college votes. 232 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 3: There are two states that don't do that, Nebraska and Maine. Now, 233 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 3: there is one congressional district in May in Nebraska Omaha. 234 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 3: The second congressional district which went Democrat in twenty and twenty, 235 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:19,199 Speaker 3: and what the Republicans has been trying to do is 236 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 3: change the rule so that Nebraska becomes a winner. 237 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 2: It takes all the state. 238 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 3: It's a reliabie red state that would deliver all of 239 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 3: its electoral college votes to Donald Trump. But there was 240 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 3: an attempt last month to change the rules, and one 241 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 3: Republican decided that the rules should stay the same. And we 242 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 3: talk about the blue dot. This one electoral college vote 243 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 3: in Nebraska that is based on a congressional district. And 244 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 3: it looks like Kamala Harrison will win Omaha, which is 245 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 3: that congressional district, and that could tilt her from two 246 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 3: sixty nine to two seventy. Two seventy is a magic 247 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 3: number you need to win. So we look at these 248 00:10:56,400 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 3: seven states, but let's not forget Nebraska as well, because 249 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 3: if she won those three Roust Belt states, right Wisconsin, Michigan, 250 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 3: and Pennsylvania, that gets it to two sixty nine. The 251 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 3: thing that gets her over the top is that one 252 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:11,439 Speaker 3: blue dot in Nebraska. 253 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,080 Speaker 2: Everything matters, Mike, in this final stage. 254 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: Does not just And I asked you last time we interviewed. 255 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 1: I said, last question, call it and you wouldn't you 256 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 1: couldn't any change. 257 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 2: No, not at all. 258 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:22,840 Speaker 3: I think anybody who tells you with any certainty who's 259 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 3: going to win in this stage isn't worth listening to. 260 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,719 Speaker 2: I you know, we could have more October surprises. 261 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,679 Speaker 3: Frankly, I think the October surprise in the twenty twenty 262 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 3: four election came in twenty twenty three with the Hammer 263 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,559 Speaker 3: attack on Israel. I think the ramifications of that are 264 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 3: still working through. I think Benjamin Ett Yahoo could end 265 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 3: up having quite an impact on this election, depending what 266 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 3: happens in Iran. And it's not only the turmoil in 267 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 3: the Middle East politically, it's the impact economically. You know, 268 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,719 Speaker 3: there's a spiking gas prices before the election. Again that 269 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 3: nostalgic feeling about the Trump economy comes into play again. 270 00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 3: You know, there are so many things that could impact 271 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:00,839 Speaker 3: this race between. 272 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:01,079 Speaker 2: Now and then. 273 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 3: As I said, I've been saying this all year, Mike, 274 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 3: it's just a few thousand votes in a few states, 275 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 3: but that'll decide the selection. 276 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 2: Who can get out the vote. It's a squeaker, it's 277 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 2: gonna be a photo. 278 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 1: Finish'm gonna have to get you on again talk so Mike, 279 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 1: appreciate it. 280 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 2: As always. 281 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: Nick Brian out of Australia in the early Hours and 282 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,839 Speaker 1: Australian Morning. His latest book as the Forever War. If 283 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: you haven't read that, well worth it. For more from 284 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 1: the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks it'd 285 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 1: be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.