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Speaker 1: So it's didpday the final red for the year. We

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Speaker 1: had a zero point nine percent drop in June. Banks

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Speaker 1: are expecting to bounce back now, some are saying one percent.

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Speaker 1: West Tax Chief economists Kelly Echold who joins me, Now, Hello, Kelly,

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Speaker 1: good morning, and what do you think.

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Speaker 2: Well, then we're going to get a pretty good quarter

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Speaker 2: this time around. We've got zero point nine percent gain

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Speaker 2: in the forecast, so basically felling in that hole that

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Speaker 2: we saw in Q two.

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Speaker 1: So where are getting the hint that it's going to

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Speaker 1: be good? Is that retail figures are.

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Speaker 2: One Well, it's actually quite across the board this time,

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Speaker 2: which is quite encouraging because I mean in previous quarters

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Speaker 2: where we have seen strength, it's been quite narrowly based,

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Speaker 2: particularly around the agricultural sector. So what we can kind

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Speaker 2: of see here and the indicators is that a lot

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Speaker 2: of the indicators of the services sector center have done

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Speaker 2: quite well. So we have had decent retail trade, We've

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Speaker 2: had some decent construction figures, but it does look like

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Speaker 2: all through the professional services type sectors there's been decent

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Speaker 2: activity there as well. So we're looking for a broad

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Speaker 2: based result.

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Speaker 1: Is it fair to say that we just got our

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Speaker 1: mojo back, that we've got some confidence, and now people

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Speaker 1: are prepared to commit some capital after sitting on their hands.

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Speaker 2: I certainly think this is one of the better results

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Speaker 2: I've seen in a couple will be one of the

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Speaker 2: better results we've seen in a couple of years, as

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Speaker 2: even the forecast. You're right because of that broader based nature.

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Speaker 2: I think it's probably a little bit too early to assess,

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Speaker 2: because there remains quite a lot of volatility in this data.

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Speaker 2: You know, for example, what this result would do is

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Speaker 2: fill in a big hole from the previous quarter. There's

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Speaker 2: still quite a pronounced seasonal pattern. We need to see

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Speaker 2: two or three quarters of this before you can really

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Speaker 2: confidently say that you're on an underlying upward trend. I reckon.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, I've got we've got the RB who's getting a

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Speaker 1: bit upset that retail banks are putting their interest rates up,

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Speaker 1: which is not what they wanted. So and they're going

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Speaker 1: to get this figure. What do you think this is

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Speaker 1: going to mean for the RB heading into the new

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Speaker 1: year and our interest rates?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I don't think it means anything for

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Speaker 2: our interest rates in the short term. And you would

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Speaker 2: have seen the renew resipient governor on the on the

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Speaker 2: tapes recently really making that point quite forcefully now that

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Speaker 2: they're not really looking at the term rate rise, but

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Speaker 2: this data is going to fill in some of the

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Speaker 2: hole that they saw in capacity in the economy in

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Speaker 2: the last year or so. I mean they only expected

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Speaker 2: and increased zero point four percent in this quarter, so

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Speaker 2: there's going to be quite a lot better than that,

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Speaker 2: So they should be probably a lot more comfortable that

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Speaker 2: the economy is in a better place.

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Speaker 1: Kelly, I thank you, and I hope you'll write for

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