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Speaker 1: Now from Devin Fund's management, Greg, how are you better

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Speaker 1: than the US market's mike numbers to make the eyes water?

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Speaker 2: Ay, it's the second day of Carnridge. So yeah, the

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Speaker 2: dadly on twenty and thirty one points the NAS deck

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Speaker 2: now on beer market Church that was down five point

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Speaker 2: eight percent, Big tech names whacked Apple down seven percent,

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Speaker 2: down sixteen percent two days. S and P five had

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Speaker 2: the biggest discline since March twenty twenty. We remember what

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Speaker 2: that was for. That was down six percent, seventeen percent,

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Speaker 2: lowest since Februys record high, and it's lost incredible five

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Speaker 2: trillion dollars in market cap in two sessions. So Trump, you,

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Speaker 2: we know he's not too bad that he was off

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Speaker 2: playing golf. He said the reaction was all going pretty

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Speaker 2: well and the stock market would ultimately boom. But yeah, look,

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Speaker 2: it really is no joking around of might. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think what Trump's dished out it can only be

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Speaker 2: described as economic vandalism, procession, in risk, staborism. There's one

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Speaker 2: argument that tariffs rico cycle back to text carts that

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Speaker 2: could help support consumer demand, but it's going to drive inflation.

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Speaker 2: Drome pelsould have noted as much on fight. I said,

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Speaker 2: inflation risks are going to become more assistant. I guess

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Speaker 2: the big question there is where the Trump he used

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Speaker 2: to look at the stock market a bit as a scorecard,

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Speaker 2: will cake some pressure. And also from the outside. We're

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Speaker 2: here and teach and finance is on their way to

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Speaker 2: talk some common sense in Florida, and maybe trading partners

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Speaker 2: erecting a little bit differently to what he thought. So

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Speaker 2: China's come out with retiliatory tariffs of thirty four percent

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Speaker 2: on US products so well, and truly in trade war territory.

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Speaker 2: We've hear in Europe they're going to talk more about unity.

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Speaker 2: So is America going to become more isolated? I suppose

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Speaker 2: the big thing is going to be forced on in politically,

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Speaker 2: it'll be aware of history. There's been a lot of

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Speaker 2: talk about how the last time we saw tariffs as

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Speaker 2: large were back in the nineteen thirties with the smooth

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Speaker 2: Haly terr Effact. Now that ultimately was designed to I guess,

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Speaker 2: make the Great Depression less bad and actually tended to

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Speaker 2: make it make it for an even more protracted downturn.

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Speaker 2: And the Republicans they lost that nine to thirty two election,

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Speaker 2: in the landslide, So I think it's gonna be a

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Speaker 2: lot of pressure on Republican representatives from their voters. Rememb

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Speaker 2: about sixty percent of Americans invest in the state market,

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Speaker 2: so the villiar of there for our one ks or

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Speaker 2: the retirement accounts will have been absolutely hammered by the

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Speaker 2: sell off. So that news is going to get back

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Speaker 2: to them. And we're already hearing right that Republicans are

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Speaker 2: looking well. Some Republicans are supported of bipartisan bill to

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Speaker 2: take tarif back to Congress. So we have to see

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Speaker 2: how this plays out for us down here. I guess

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Speaker 2: it's just worth remembering that. You know, we've seen market

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Speaker 2: sell offs before. We saw it during COVID. It's all

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Speaker 2: about sort of trying to keep one's head and you know,

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Speaker 2: probably the worst time to sales when fears rolling the market.

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Speaker 2: But you were obviously very disturbing. We'll have to see

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Speaker 2: how this all plays out.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they're fascinating time. So we got the alluded to.

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Speaker 1: The job numbers are way better than thought though.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's some brightness there at least, So the use

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Speaker 2: economy isn't a good spot. Yeah for now anyway, So

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Speaker 2: I turned in twenty eight thousand jobs crowded March. It

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Speaker 2: was one hundred thousand more than forecast. So despite the

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Speaker 2: best efens of the Doge team, public sector hiring was

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Speaker 2: actually up slightly. Private sect private services sector parils They

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Speaker 2: were by one hundred and ninety seven thousand. That was

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Speaker 2: after the previous months ninety thousand gain and private health

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Speaker 2: education services that saw the biggest gain seventy seven thousand

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Speaker 2: and quite interesting one Mike was hiring in a leisure

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Speaker 2: and hospital that was down seventeen thousand in February, but

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Speaker 2: they added forty three thousand jobs. So the previous two

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Speaker 2: months payrolls were revised down, but average olly earnings they

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Speaker 2: ticked up zero point three percent. Unemployment also ticked up

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Speaker 2: slightly to four point two percent, but that was as expected.

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Speaker 2: So resilient jobs picture for now. But yeah, I guess

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Speaker 2: the jelly remains out on how it will look if

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Speaker 2: there's no flipping on Trump's terror policy.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, bring it back home. This week big one for

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Speaker 1: the RB. What do we got?

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Speaker 2: Most people were expecting quarter percent? The arbnz's flagged this

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Speaker 2: as well. Of course, we've got a new acting heat

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Speaker 2: as well, But is this the time to be holding

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Speaker 2: the line. Maybe make it three in a row, another

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Speaker 2: fifty basis point card. I think that the case is

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Speaker 2: pretty clear. The OCA three point seventy five percent neutral

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Speaker 2: where the economy is not being stimulated or constricted as

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Speaker 2: below three percent, we should be there now. Inflations at

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Speaker 2: the bottom of the range. You were crawling out of

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Speaker 2: recession confidences law in most metrics with unemployment rising, and

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Speaker 2: then we've got a trade war. Yeah, and that's going

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Speaker 2: to deliver arguably a further deflationary shock. So you look

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Speaker 2: at prices of goods, they're going to be going up

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Speaker 2: for Americans, but we could see a lot of those

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Speaker 2: goods previously destined for the US go over parts of

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Speaker 2: the globe, including here. So just an aside, we just

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Speaker 2: said we see the great redirection here. Maybe we get

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Speaker 2: goods rerouted to other countries of lower terriff roats for

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Speaker 2: the make the way to the US. But I think

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Speaker 2: this could actually be a deflationary shot. We're in the

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Speaker 2: middle of another economic shock, it seems, Mike, and it's

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Speaker 2: not really a time to be delaying getting rates down

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Speaker 2: for the sake of it. So you know, the world's

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Speaker 2: fundamentally changed since February.

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Speaker 1: But let's see right and makee numbers please.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the downs mentioned down five and a half percent,

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Speaker 2: thirty eight three one four one. A trump ship was

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Speaker 2: in them said that's still going to have fifty thousand

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Speaker 2: under his term. Let's see about that. S and P

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Speaker 2: five hundred down six percent, five seven four, Na's deck

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Speaker 2: down five point eight percent. Foot see down five percent

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Speaker 2: in the UK and Nicky down two point eight percent,

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Speaker 2: a SX two hundred that was down two point four percent.

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Speaker 2: We had a lot better actually to the insicts fifty

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Speaker 2: with down point nine percent, Goal down seventy seven dollars

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Speaker 2: three thousand and thirty eight, and ounce oil down five

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Speaker 2: dollars sixty two Baroso deflationary shock. Their currency markets. We're

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Speaker 2: down three over three percent against the US fifty six.

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Speaker 2: For the Key we ninety two point seven outs Assie

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Speaker 2: are up one point two percent there forty three point

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Speaker 2: four sterling eighty two point three year and just quickly

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Speaker 2: this week we've got the US banks kicking off the

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Speaker 2: earnings season, and let's see what happens obviously on the

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Speaker 2: tear front and he back back dating the air or

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Speaker 2: going backwards. But locally we've got business confidence, business pm

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Speaker 2: I and the big one, the abbe en Z you know,

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Speaker 2: the probably cut by core percent, but yeah, maybe should

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Speaker 2: cut by half percent.

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Speaker 1: Well sold, Greg, appreciate it, Greg Smith, Devon Funds Management.

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Speaker 2: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to

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