1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,960
Speaker 1: So Donald Trump has announced his big move against Russia Putin.

2
00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:05,480
Speaker 1: He's given Putin fifty days to end the war or

3
00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:07,320
Speaker 1: he's going to hit Pusin with tariffs and then any

4
00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,680
Speaker 1: country trading with Russia will be hit with secondary tariffs

5
00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,040
Speaker 1: up to one hundred percent. Also, Donald Trump has given

6
00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,840
Speaker 1: the ok for offensive weapons to be given to Ukraine.

7
00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,599
Speaker 1: Robert Patman is an international relations expert at Otago University,

8
00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:22,800
Speaker 1: Mourning Robert morning, hella, is this going to make a difference.

9
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:26,760
Speaker 2: I think it will make a big difference to them now,

10
00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,320
Speaker 2: the Ukrainians. But I think it will make a difference

11
00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:34,080
Speaker 2: because the onus is on speed, amongst other things. Mister Trump,

12
00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:38,760
Speaker 2: who met with the NATO Secretary General Mark Ruter, confirmed

13
00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:42,160
Speaker 2: there's an arrangement where the America where the Europeans will

14
00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:49,360
Speaker 2: immediately transfer about seventeen Patriot These are defensive anti missile systems.

15
00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:54,600
Speaker 2: These will be transferred quickly to the Ukrainians, possibly through Germany,

16
00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:59,840
Speaker 2: and those replacements will the Europeans will be backfilled, as

17
00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:03,120
Speaker 2: the Americans call it, by American equipment. And the Europeans

18
00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,240
Speaker 2: are paying for this, and the Europeans are really keen

19
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,319
Speaker 2: to give the Ukraine's much greater resilience, both from the

20
00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,920
Speaker 2: threat from the Skies but also on the ground. I

21
00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:17,920
Speaker 2: didn't pick up the point that you made about offensive equipment.

22
00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,600
Speaker 2: So far, much of it has been characterized as the

23
00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:22,720
Speaker 2: defensive defensive.

24
00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:25,200
Speaker 1: Do you think fifty days is too long a lead

25
00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,119
Speaker 1: in time and then that gives Persian heaps of times

26
00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:29,880
Speaker 1: to just go really hard on Ukraine or Stall.

27
00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:34,400
Speaker 2: Yes, I do. I think it's far too late, and

28
00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:41,600
Speaker 2: you know time is vital in this situation. But it

29
00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:46,720
Speaker 2: may mean that Germany in particular is prepared to make

30
00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:50,000
Speaker 2: offensive weaponry available. And there's no doubt about it. The

31
00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:56,160
Speaker 2: Ukrainians are striking through drones largely multiple sites in Russia.

32
00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:59,880
Speaker 2: And there are clear signs of concern now in the

33
00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:04,160
Speaker 2: EMLIN about what has been a tremendous u turn by Trump.

34
00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:08,320
Speaker 1: Okay, so all in all, all in all, do you

35
00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:12,240
Speaker 1: think this might give Trump a putin rather pause to

36
00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:13,079
Speaker 1: rethink this war?

37
00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:19,239
Speaker 2: I don't think he can. He faces tough options and

38
00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,920
Speaker 2: he can't given the casualties Russia. Russia's sustained more than

39
00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:27,200
Speaker 2: a million casualties trying to invade a neighbor. If he withdraws,

40
00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:31,200
Speaker 2: then his authority regime will probably be overthrown, So he's

41
00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:34,880
Speaker 2: got to hang in there and hope that his perseverance

42
00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:39,320
Speaker 2: will pay off and the Europeans will get demoralized and

43
00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,480
Speaker 2: mister Trump will gain change his mind. He is capable

44
00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:43,360
Speaker 2: of changing his minds.

45
00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:46,200
Speaker 1: Most likely way this plays out in your mind, Robert.

46
00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,839
Speaker 2: I have always thought that Ukraine will gain the upper

47
00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:53,680
Speaker 2: hand as time goes on, because small powers which are

48
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,760
Speaker 2: determined to defend their own territory can defeat bigger ones.

49
00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,399
Speaker 2: We only have to think of Vietnam, the Soviet Union

50
00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:01,760
Speaker 2: in Afghanistan, and of course the US in the Iraq.

51
00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,000
Speaker 2: Great powers can be defeated by smaller ones, and I

52
00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,120
Speaker 2: don't think this will be an exception in the long.

53
00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:09,880
Speaker 1: Run, Robert. Thanks for you expertise, Robert Patman, Professor of

54
00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:13,239
Speaker 1: International Relations at Otago University. For more from the My

55
00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:15,960
Speaker 1: Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks.

56
00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,160
Speaker 2: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast

57
00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:20,079
Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio.