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Speaker 1: So now an international research group has downgraded our economic outlook.

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Speaker 1: BMI is a division of Fitch Solutions, which also includes

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Speaker 1: Fitch Ratings. But they all insist the completely independent of

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Speaker 1: each other and there's nothing to worry about. Here's the problem.

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Speaker 1: BMI is predicting GDP will grow by just one percent

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Speaker 1: this year. That's down from one point two percent, which

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Speaker 1: it was previously thinking. Liam dan is The Herald's Business

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Speaker 1: editor at large ALM. You know, okay, so they're basing

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Speaker 1: this by the sounds of things on the first quarter.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, they and looking out at some of the

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Speaker 2: risks and things coming at us. They're looking at consumer spending.

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Speaker 2: They look at some pretty detailed secondary type data that

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Speaker 2: Product Producers Index and the PMI and that kind of

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Speaker 2: stuff for what's happening with manufacturing. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: it's not wildly out of line with some of the

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Speaker 2: gloomy outlooks from the banks and so forth right now,

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Speaker 2: but it just shows you that the trend is still

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Speaker 2: not good. So they're seeing it deteriorating, you know, And

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Speaker 2: I should add there's there's always that upside. They still

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Speaker 2: see interest rate cuts this year. In fact, they still

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Speaker 2: see two of them I think they're.

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Speaker 1: Probably really when how do we fit two in?

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Speaker 2: I guess no. I think there's an October as well.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so they must be done Ontoba November.

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Speaker 2: I think that's pushing it. But of course what that

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Speaker 2: means is that they're in the camp, and the sort

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Speaker 2: of is two camps. There's the camp that's worried that

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Speaker 2: this non tradable inflation is just going to be sticky

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Speaker 2: and stay there for Yeah. There's the other one that goes,

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Speaker 2: oh no, no, New Zealand's going off for cliff, the

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Speaker 2: economy's falling.

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Speaker 1: Which one do you fall into? Well, I fall into

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Speaker 1: that we're going off a cliff and we're going to

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Speaker 1: have to.

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Speaker 2: It's weird that that's the more optimistic one. But I think,

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Speaker 2: like you have been in the let's pull the band

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Speaker 2: aid off quick camp for a while, and I think

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Speaker 2: I think things are, you know, slowing pretty fast. And

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Speaker 2: I mean it's possible that non tradeable inflation, the service

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Speaker 2: sector stuff and insurance and rentsal just you know, keeps

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Speaker 2: sticking there for longer. But actually, you know, if if

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Speaker 2: the economy really starts tanking, yeah, it could also just

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Speaker 2: come off a lot faster than what the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: is talking about they have to talk to if they

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Speaker 2: have to, you know, until they see the whites of

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Speaker 2: its eyes or whatever. You know. But a lot of

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Speaker 2: the big international players are sticking with these earlier cut

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Speaker 2: forecasts and you know, pretty downbeat about the prospects for

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Speaker 2: the next year ahead for us.

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Speaker 1: Is this going to affect what Fitch Ratings does?

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Speaker 2: It shouldn't, I mean, but they will read it. They'll

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Speaker 2: read it. They'll read it. They'll read all the econic stuff.

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Speaker 2: But the stuff coming from the guys down the corridor,

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Speaker 2: I guess they would be weird if they didn't pay

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Speaker 2: attention to that. Yes, it also reads fairly similarly to

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Speaker 2: the kind of commentary that we had to all that

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Speaker 2: that it was a business test story. Actually I wrote

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Speaker 2: about where Delepe Fonseka talked to the Fitch Ratings guy

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Speaker 2: and he said similar things to this. And there's the

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Speaker 2: warning there that hey, you know, if China, China's economy

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Speaker 2: doesn't bounce back, or if it slows a bit more,

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Speaker 2: then the numbers could look even worse for us, because

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Speaker 2: you know, we're still so reliant on that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, totally, Hey have you like this is so weird?

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Speaker 1: And I'm sorry to do this here, but I thought

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Speaker 1: of you when this came out. Have you seen the

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Speaker 1: surf park that's going to be built in Auckland.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty cool.

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Speaker 1: Are you going to go?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's a long time since I got up any

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Speaker 2: sort of speed on a surfboard, but these waves are

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Speaker 2: perfect right there.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I thought you were more of a surfing.

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Speaker 2: Well I did. Used to leave Live and Breathe a

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Speaker 2: long time ago. I'm know Scott Robertson, you know he's

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Speaker 2: out there dreaming up you know, how to well listen?

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Speaker 1: Would be Would this be your return to surfing?

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Speaker 2: It could be because the thing that got me with

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Speaker 2: surfing right is that if you're not doing it all

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Speaker 2: the time, the bit where you get out the back

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Speaker 2: and paddle through all the way had the hard bit. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's the bit that sort of put me off because.

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Speaker 1: Would you pay ninety bucks for an hour?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Look, I've been and done the skiing up in

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Speaker 2: north of Auckland. You know it's it's worth a go,

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Speaker 2: isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I probably would give a guard and I might

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Speaker 2: shout the kids, you know, they're sort of more likely

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Speaker 2: to get up fast on a.

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Speaker 1: B I might shout the kids, what ess father, Liam?

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much, really appreciated. That's Liam dand The

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Speaker 1: Herald's Business editor at largest.

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Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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