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Speaker 1: Gavin Gray is with us out of the UK shortly.

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Speaker 1: I have got that tip line for you, so stand by.

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Speaker 1: We're going to get to it twenty five away from seven.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Consumer confidence has improved, but we're still overall more pessimistic

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Speaker 1: than optimistic about the economy. That is from the latest

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Speaker 1: Westpac consumer Confidence survey for the June quarter, comes after

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Speaker 1: confidence dropped quite sharply in the first three months of

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Speaker 1: the year. You'll recall Satish Ranshot, as Westpac senior economist,

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Speaker 1: has setish.

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Speaker 2: Good evening Heather.

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Speaker 1: Do you think this is material information? Is this adding

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Speaker 1: to the data suggesting that we're in recession again?

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Speaker 2: I think it really highlights that the middle part of

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Speaker 2: the year has been pretty tough for a lot of households.

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Speaker 2: We're still seeing a lot of pressure from rising costs

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Speaker 2: of the centrals and generally we're seeing a lot of

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Speaker 2: negative news, especially on the global front, that is worrying

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Speaker 2: a lot of households.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that things are going to improve once

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Speaker 1: we start getting those rate cuts heading our bank accounts.

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Speaker 2: I do think we are going to see some bitter

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Speaker 2: times for a lot of households in the second half

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Speaker 2: of the year. As you say, we've had some big

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Speaker 2: drops in about two hundred basis points for a lot

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Speaker 2: of mortgage rates, but a lot of households haven't rolled

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Speaker 2: over on their mortgage yet. As we go through that

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Speaker 2: second half of the year, a lot of households could

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Speaker 2: be seeing a lot more money in their back pockets

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Speaker 2: as their mortgage rates drop.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So tell me how you think, because we've got

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Speaker 1: the GDP data coming out tomorrow, right, tell me how

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Speaker 1: you think the year looks in terms of the economic

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Speaker 1: growth story quarterback.

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Speaker 2: I think it's probably going to be a bit soft

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Speaker 2: through the middle part of the year. Tomorrow's spikers are

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Speaker 2: probably going to show the economy grew by about point seven.

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Speaker 2: That's sort of around a trend rate. Probably a little

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Speaker 2: bit mixed across the economy. But really if we're looking

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Speaker 2: for a pack up and activity, we're going to see

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Speaker 2: it more through that latter part of the year, with

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Speaker 2: both those interest rate cuts heading people's back pockets, but

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Speaker 2: also more of that income from high commodity prices really

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Speaker 2: flowing through the economy and their agricultural boost that'll be

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Speaker 2: really important for a lot of regions.

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Speaker 1: So are you saying, Okay, so we get this the

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Speaker 1: upteck in the first quarter, uptick in the last quarter,

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Speaker 1: and in between those two quarters. Technical recession probably.

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Speaker 2: More of a little bit of softness rather than a

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Speaker 2: technical recession. I think there are some positives out there

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Speaker 2: for the economy. Tourisms are bright spot. That's improving those

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Speaker 2: agricultural export incomes. They are looking great for a lot

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Speaker 2: of regions. But it's really more of a gradual picture

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Speaker 2: for households. But things are slowly getting better.

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Speaker 1: Okay, But statish, what we have seen in the last

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Speaker 1: two or three years now is that the data goes

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Speaker 1: it's lumpy, it goes up, it goes down, and goes up,

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Speaker 1: it goes down. But essentially, per capita, we're are just

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Speaker 1: this really long recession. Does it just continue through this year?

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Speaker 1: Does it?

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to keep getting worse. It

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Speaker 2: might be a little bit soggy. In the NETTA. We

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Speaker 2: have still been dealing with some pretty powerful financial pressures

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Speaker 2: like increases and living costs, But slowly some of those

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Speaker 2: pressures are easing off, and especially those lower interest rates.

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Speaker 2: That'll be a relief for a lot of households.

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Speaker 1: When do we start, When do we get out of

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Speaker 1: this bit though, where we're talking about it easing off

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Speaker 1: and getting better, and we're actually now we're into positive territory.

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Speaker 1: We're firmly above the zero and we and say we're

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Speaker 1: growing again properly.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think by the time we get to

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Speaker 2: the end of this year, things will really start to

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Speaker 2: feel different for many parts of the economy. Our labor

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Speaker 2: market has been soggy, but slowly we'll start to see

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Speaker 2: more people being hired as household spending picks up, and

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Speaker 2: as more of those farming incomes left. We are already

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Speaker 2: starting to see incomes and spending rights in many parts

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Speaker 2: of the country.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now, I don't want to say I don't want

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Speaker 1: to be a negative ninni here, but we said this

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Speaker 1: last year, right, we said, just survive to twenty five

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Speaker 1: and then it's bright all the way through. And you're saying, basically,

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Speaker 1: don't worry, it'll be bright next year. What are the

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Speaker 1: chances that you're wrong?

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Speaker 2: I mean, if something's going to surprise us, it's probably

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Speaker 2: going to be coming from the global economy. I mean,

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Speaker 2: we've seen the headlines recently, especially coming from the Middle East.

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Speaker 2: There's ongoing concerns about tariffs, but if we think about

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Speaker 2: the domestic story, it is looking better. It's great that

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Speaker 2: we can manage that global outlook right now. I think

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Speaker 2: things are looking better, but there are those risks that

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Speaker 2: will have to keep an eye on.

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Speaker 1: Okay, fingers cross, fingers cross, Satish, thanks so much, as

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Speaker 1: always really appreciate it's a teacher ranshot. We respect senior economists.

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Speaker 1: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive.

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