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Speaker 1: The only drive show you can trust to ask the question,

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Speaker 1: which again the answers find the fact sack and give

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Speaker 1: the analysis. Here the duplicy Elan Drive with one New

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Speaker 1: Zealand and the power of satellite mobile news doorgs Envy.

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Speaker 2: Afternoon. Unemployment has reached a ten year high of five

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Speaker 2: point four percent, up from five point three. This takes

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Speaker 2: us back to a level we haven't been at since

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Speaker 2: September twenty fifteen. But it's not all bad. Infametrics are

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Speaker 2: seeing some good under that hood, and the chief executive,

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Speaker 2: Brad Olsen is with us.

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Speaker 3: Now, Hi, Brad, good evening.

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Speaker 2: What are the numbers that you like here?

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Speaker 3: Well, the biggest one for us is the fact that

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Speaker 3: employment rose a fairly strong point five percent in the quarter,

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Speaker 3: so we did actually see more jobs activity. The reason

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Speaker 3: that that unemployment rate also increased, though, is because participation

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Speaker 3: rose from seventy point three to seventy point five. What

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Speaker 3: that means is there's a whole bunch of people who

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Speaker 3: previously they weren't counted as unemployed because they were out

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Speaker 3: of the labor force, weren't looking for work, they weren't available.

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Speaker 3: Now there are a few more jobs starting to come around,

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Speaker 3: they are making themselves available to get back into work,

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Speaker 3: but they are now counted as unemployed whereas they weren't before,

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Speaker 3: which has lifted that number so effectively you are starting

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Speaker 3: to see a bit more of an improvement in that

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Speaker 3: job's trend. It's just the meaning that you've both got

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Speaker 3: more people who are looking for jobs as well as

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Speaker 3: those who are actually getting them.

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Speaker 2: Now a lot of the jobs that have been added

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Speaker 2: appear to be part time jobs. Is that a sign

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Speaker 2: that employers are just sort of dipping their toes but

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Speaker 2: not fully confident yet.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it does seem to be part of that. I

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Speaker 3: mean fifty five percent, so just over half of the

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Speaker 3: new jobs we saw in the quarter were part time roles,

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Speaker 3: and it does suggest that. Look, when you look at

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Speaker 3: the number of hours being offered out there, it's not

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Speaker 3: particularly strong yet, and probably consistent with the fact that

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Speaker 3: the job add numbers, the number of roles being advertised

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Speaker 3: hasn't really jumped up strongly either, So there's a bit

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Speaker 3: of a turn, but it's sort of not as forthright yet,

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Speaker 3: which also comes in when you look at the underutilization rates,

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Speaker 3: so slightly broader than unemployment. It looks at the number

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Speaker 3: of people who don't have a job, those who have

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Speaker 3: a job that would like to work more hours, and

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Speaker 3: those who are not currently looking but they probably could

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Speaker 3: be convinced into it. That rate was steady at thirteen percent,

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Speaker 3: which does suggest you're sort of seeing people who weren't

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Speaker 3: previously looking are now looking. Those who were looking already

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Speaker 3: have maybe have got a job but on reduced hours,

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Speaker 3: but they are looking for more. So some encouraging signs

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Speaker 3: at least better than that five point four percent unemployment

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Speaker 3: rate might suggest, but again not necessarily absolutely rapidly firing

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Speaker 3: labor market momentum.

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Speaker 2: Now, listen, I'm just that business about the employers that

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Speaker 2: are dipping their toes and not having full confidence to

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Speaker 2: go full noise into full employment. What is going on

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Speaker 2: here with our recovery. Why are we being as wobbly

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Speaker 2: as we are at the start of this year.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think it's possibly because we got burnt a

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Speaker 3: bit with the expectations of recovery last year. You know,

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Speaker 3: we talked about twenty five and about getting momentum back

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Speaker 3: and it just didn't really get under weigh as much.

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Speaker 3: And I think there's still a bit of a you know,

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Speaker 3: circular thing here where for businesses, they need to see

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Speaker 3: stronger business sales coming through their front door before they

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Speaker 3: commit to hiring more workers.

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Speaker 2: So, Brad, are we sizing up that RB governor before

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Speaker 2: we're sure of what she's about.

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Speaker 3: Well, a little potentially, but I suspect we're probably more

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Speaker 3: sizing up that uncomfortable inflation to start with. Like probably

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Speaker 3: no matter who the governor would be, three point one

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Speaker 3: percent inflation does sort of set the catamaics of pigeons

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Speaker 3: a little bit. You saw what the Reserve Bank of

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Speaker 3: Australia had to do yesterday in terms of lifting rates.

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Speaker 3: But I think probably all of this boils down for

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Speaker 3: households that they're seeing that you know, inflation figure coming up,

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Speaker 3: they're still uncertain about their job prospects, and that means

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Speaker 3: that people are still acting fairly cautious. So until that

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Speaker 3: turns around. We did see a little bit more data

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Speaker 3: showing consumer confidence has bounced a bit higher, but I

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Speaker 3: still think people are a little bit shy, a little

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Speaker 3: bit cautious so far, and that's extending to businesses and

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Speaker 3: they're hiring too.

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Speaker 2: It's good to talk to you, Brad as always. Thank

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Speaker 2: you Brad. Else and CEO of Infometrics.

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