1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,720 Speaker 1: Jobs darted today. Consensus seems to be will have lost 2 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:04,840 Speaker 1: about thirty thousand of them in the past year, which 3 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: will give us an unemployment rate of about five point 4 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: one ish aans At economist Henry Russell with us Henry morning. 5 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 2: Good morning. 6 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: What's your number. 7 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 2: We're at five point one two, so that would be 8 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 2: a lift from four point eight percent in the previous quarter. 9 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 2: And it looks like everyone's landed around the same figure 10 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:20,920 Speaker 2: today with a. 11 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: Peak of what and when. 12 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:26,799 Speaker 2: So our current forecast is for the unemployment rate to 13 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 2: peak at five and a half percent in the middle 14 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,479 Speaker 2: of this year. But recent data has actually been slightly 15 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 2: more encouraging and that we have seen a return and 16 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 2: monthly feel jobs data over the past two months. And 17 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 2: part of the reason the unemployment rate isn't lifting isn't 18 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,160 Speaker 2: likely to lift so high, is that we are also 19 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 2: seeing our strongest response from the supply side. I less 20 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 2: the people are exiting the workforce, most likely because jobs 21 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 2: are harder to come by and potentially chasing better opportunities offshore. 22 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 2: So the hopes that we do rights to peak slightly 23 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 2: below that sometime in the first half. 24 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: It's like the mortgage clippers are saying earlier on in 25 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 1: the program, it's sort of the doom days never really came, 26 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: which I suppose is the glass half full scenario. Do 27 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: you see something positive in the latter part of next year? 28 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: Is that the whole scenario of what we're hearing from 29 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: economists at the moment. 30 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. I think it is important to note that 31 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 2: these data today are very much a reflection of where 32 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 2: the economy has been rather than necessarily where it's going. 33 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 2: So the labor market does tend to lag the broader 34 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 2: economic cycle. And what we've seen over recent months is 35 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 2: that the recovery is underway in the economy. Business confidence 36 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 2: has risen sharp, the consumer confidence is recovering, card spendings 37 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,479 Speaker 2: now trending higher. There's a lot of positives, but you know, 38 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 2: these things do take time. It won't be instant, but 39 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 2: the second half this year is certainly likely to be brighter. 40 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: Big ship, slow turn. Henry go well, appreciate it. Henry 41 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: Russell ains at Economists. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, 42 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: listen live to news talks that'd be from six am weekdays, 43 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.