1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: Let me talk to you about the election, sue Ed Davy, 2 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: lib Dims trying to rise above the chaos. 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 2: We want to make sure we build a caring nation 4 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:14,079 Speaker 2: where the importance of social care and family cares is 5 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 2: really at the front. So we can both give them 6 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 2: the support they need but also transform our NHS at 7 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 2: the same time by investing in care. 8 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: God, that's what we're in. People want to hear about 9 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: absolutely boring. He drive a tractor today, so he tried 10 00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 1: to live in himself up Rishi with the warning the. 11 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 3: Dangers of a labor government with an unchecked majority, a 12 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 3: blank check to do what they want, and that means 13 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 3: people's taxes are going to go up. It means they're 14 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 3: going to pay tax on the state pension for the 15 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 3: first time in our country's history. It means we'll make 16 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 3: no progress on migration. So if you don't want those 17 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:47,279 Speaker 3: things to happen, if you want your taxes cut and 18 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 3: our border secure and your pension protected, then you've got 19 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 3: a vote Conservative. 20 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 1: And Kia, who will be the Prime Minister in about 21 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 1: twenty four hours, is trying to pretend that it's not 22 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: all liber We. 23 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 3: Will continue to fight until ten o'clock tomorrow night. 24 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 2: Making the case that change only happens if you vote 25 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 2: for it. But it is a huge opportunity for our country. 26 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,399 Speaker 3: This is the opportunity to turn the page and to 27 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 3: move forward in. 28 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,319 Speaker 1: The middle of it all, Ron Little, who's with us morning? 29 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 2: Mate? 30 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 4: Good Will? It's you, mate. 31 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 1: Am I talking to the candidate for the Middlesbrough South 32 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: and East Cleveland constituency. 33 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 4: You are indeed, yes, yes, you are speaking to one 34 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 4: of them. 35 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: Yes, indeed, and so so Simon Clarke. Tell me about 36 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 1: Simon Clark currently in psince twenty seventeen. Is he going 37 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 1: to get rolled by you in the next handful of ours? 38 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 4: Robert? He is going to get robbed by the Labor Party. 39 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 4: I said, I've just seen the latest poll for my constituency. 40 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 4: I guess fifteen percent. He gets thirty four and the 41 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 4: Labor Party gets forty four and the Greens and the 42 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 4: lip Dens come nowhere. So that's a massive turnover. If 43 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 4: the poll is right for the Labor Party, You've got 44 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 4: a very nice, young, bright candidate who's done a good 45 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 4: job and it's looking like that for the rest of 46 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 4: the country. To be honest, Mike, you know there is 47 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 4: no enthusiat amount there. The thing I keep hearing from 48 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 4: people when you know, asking them you know who you're 49 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 4: going to vote for, is well, they can't do any worse, 50 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 4: can they? Meaning Labor could not possibly do any worse 51 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 4: in the Tories, well, that remains to be seen, frankly, 52 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 4: I mean, but that is the overwhelming feeling, a great 53 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 4: tiredness with the Tories. The polls haven't budged very much. 54 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 4: If truth be told, over the last six weeks of 55 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 4: this campaign, it's been a very lackluster campaign. Labor has 56 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,359 Speaker 4: told us nothing that it's going to do. It's all 57 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:53,239 Speaker 4: been soundbites and platitudes, and even in their last addresses 58 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 4: there was nothing really to be gleaned from Mosaka. Stara 59 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 4: had to say. Meanwhile, Ed David, the lee of the 60 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 4: Liberal Democrats, there's then a bungee jump to attract attention 61 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 4: to his own party. It's maybe the sort of thing 62 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 4: I should have done to boost my campaign, but I 63 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 4: still have a sense of dignity. Mike. 64 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: You know, I saw the servation work that they do, 65 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 1: teams of thousands of people. They've got the Tories coming 66 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: in at sixty four, which is one historically low, but 67 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:24,519 Speaker 1: two they've got them coming in at sixty four to 68 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 1: the Libdium sixty one, so they within a whisker of 69 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: not actually being the official opposition. Do you believe that? 70 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 4: No, I don't quite. I think it will be narrower 71 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 4: than that. I don't know how much narrower than that. 72 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 4: I think the latest poll puts labor on something like 73 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 4: four hundred and twenty seats, which doesn't leave much to 74 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 4: be divided between the rest. But my suspicion is that 75 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 4: there are still a lot of shy Tories out there, 76 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 4: of people who are going to a conservative despite the 77 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 4: fact that everyone is saying that nobody is conservative. It's 78 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 4: a psychological problem, I think. Which we have had these 79 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 4: shy Tory votes before twenty fifteen was the obvious case 80 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 4: when nobody expected the tourist to but they did. I 81 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 4: don't think it's going to be anything like that this time, 82 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 4: but I do think it will mitigate the size of 83 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 4: Labour's majority, and then it might be you know, one 84 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 4: hundred and fifty or so, or one hundred and twenty 85 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 4: rather than what they're thinking of at the moment. 86 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: But reasonably confident and being able to say it'll be 87 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:31,799 Speaker 1: a bigger sweep than Blear. 88 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, or in that neck of the woods, in that 89 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 4: neck of the I was they was talking to a 90 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 4: Tory eedp the night before last who thought he could 91 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 4: still be a hung parliament. I don't know what sort 92 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 4: of cracker caine they're feeding these people. It certainly doesn't 93 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 4: steam like that to me. That moved. The tide has 94 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 4: got out on the Conservative Party and the tide is 95 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 4: coming in on Labor. I think that's pretty straightforward. 96 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 1: And we think Faraj will get us and according to 97 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: this poll, he will get a handful of seats. Is 98 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 1: that one of those things? And we've seen in this 99 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,359 Speaker 1: country as well, because you know, governments are swept in 100 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 1: and swept out, tremendous numbers of people arrive and in 101 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: the next election tremendous number of people leave because you 102 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: will never replicate this result again. 103 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think that's probably right. I think that's 104 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:25,320 Speaker 4: probably right. I mean the reform scene, as soon as 105 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,840 Speaker 4: Nigel Ferrat announced his candidacy, that did change the whole 106 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 4: tenor of the election, and it's made the defeat far 107 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 4: worse for the Conservative Party that he would otherwise have been. 108 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 4: That being said, the reform vote does seem to have plateaued, 109 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 4: and I'm not sure how many seats he will get. 110 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: Maybe three or four, okay, does Rischie. So what happens 111 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: to Rushi obviously is gone in time, and then there's 112 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: the leadership discussion. Who replaces him. 113 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 4: Well, the favorite at the moment comes from the right 114 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 4: of the party, and that's Kenny Baderoch. There was some 115 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 4: question about whether she be eligible to standard ndionship contest 116 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 4: because there's a question of a problem with the postal 117 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 4: votes in her area and various other little problems as well, 118 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 4: But she, Suell Bravman, from the right of the party, 119 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 4: will be pretty heavy favorites to win. The Reform Party, 120 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 4: for its path, seems to think that some new form 121 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 4: of rightly block can be established. I'm not so sure 122 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,719 Speaker 4: about that either, And there have been a few missteps 123 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 4: by Nigel Faraj in this election campaign. Excuse me, there's 124 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,119 Speaker 4: not really a very credible candidate from the Tory left 125 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 4: or indeed the center. I can't see one at the moment. 126 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 4: I mean, it would be nice to think there was. 127 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 4: Perhaps Penny Mordant would be the closest to that. 128 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: All right, might listen, sleep well, go well, and good 129 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 1: luck tomorrow. Ron little as I say in the middle 130 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: Gilsborough South and East Cleveland constituency currently held by the 131 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 1: Tory Simon Clark since twenty seventeen, But it looks like 132 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 1: according to Rod's polling, Luke Meyer of the Labor Party 133 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 1: will bowl in with some forty four percent of the 134 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: vote and if that sort of swing is replicated around 135 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: the rest of the country. On at twenty four hours, 136 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: it's going to be for more. 137 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,679 Speaker 3: From the Mic Asking Breakfast, Listen live to news talks. 138 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 3: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast 139 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 3: on iHeartRadio.