1 00:00:07,133 --> 00:00:10,453 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Saturday Morning with Jack Team podcast 2 00:00:10,573 --> 00:00:11,773 Speaker 1: from News Talks, that'd. 3 00:00:11,653 --> 00:00:18,453 Speaker 2: Be My wife is Iranian. So the only reason, well, 4 00:00:18,493 --> 00:00:20,653 Speaker 2: I guess, the only reason she's in New Zealand, the 5 00:00:20,693 --> 00:00:24,213 Speaker 2: only reason that we're together, the only reason that we 6 00:00:24,253 --> 00:00:28,013 Speaker 2: are living our safe, peaceful, happy lives is that her 7 00:00:28,053 --> 00:00:31,613 Speaker 2: parents had the courage and good fortune to escape a 8 00:00:31,733 --> 00:00:37,933 Speaker 2: terrible regime. They faced extraordinary persecution in Iran for their beliefs. 9 00:00:38,333 --> 00:00:41,133 Speaker 2: They've still got family back home, and to say that 10 00:00:41,213 --> 00:00:44,373 Speaker 2: it has been an interesting week in our household would 11 00:00:44,413 --> 00:00:49,573 Speaker 2: be an understatement. I've been buried in the news, just 12 00:00:49,613 --> 00:00:53,093 Speaker 2: buried in it, like even more than usual. But you 13 00:00:53,133 --> 00:00:55,133 Speaker 2: know how that's just like so much coming at you 14 00:00:55,173 --> 00:00:58,093 Speaker 2: all at once. It's like a fire hose with all 15 00:00:58,093 --> 00:01:01,013 Speaker 2: of the confusion and noise that comes in the immediacy 16 00:01:01,093 --> 00:01:04,813 Speaker 2: of everything. I have been reflecting a bit on three 17 00:01:05,893 --> 00:01:09,613 Speaker 2: little so three different things that I think have been 18 00:01:09,733 --> 00:01:13,413 Speaker 2: underappreciated over the last week and are worth pointing out. 19 00:01:15,173 --> 00:01:21,573 Speaker 2: So the first is the asymmetric component to the war. 20 00:01:21,653 --> 00:01:25,653 Speaker 2: I know that kind of sounds all grandiose, but my sense, 21 00:01:25,773 --> 00:01:27,813 Speaker 2: at least from the US side of things, is that 22 00:01:27,853 --> 00:01:33,533 Speaker 2: Donald Trump sees this as a conventional war with conventional armies. 23 00:01:34,133 --> 00:01:38,773 Speaker 2: His jets are bombing the Iranian military institutions and defenses, 24 00:01:38,933 --> 00:01:42,653 Speaker 2: His military is targeting their military. His submarine is torpedoing 25 00:01:42,693 --> 00:01:45,413 Speaker 2: their warship. And he said this morning the war will 26 00:01:45,413 --> 00:01:50,933 Speaker 2: only end when Iran unconditionally surrenders, except, of course, even 27 00:01:51,053 --> 00:01:55,613 Speaker 2: if Iran does decide to unconditionally surrender, which I don't know. 28 00:01:55,733 --> 00:01:58,053 Speaker 2: Seems unlikely to me, but who knows, Maybe they will. 29 00:01:59,373 --> 00:02:01,933 Speaker 2: That won't be it. That won't be the end of things. 30 00:02:02,973 --> 00:02:07,253 Speaker 2: In terms of conventional military firepower, Israel the US are 31 00:02:07,293 --> 00:02:13,373 Speaker 2: obviously vastly better resourced than Iran, right, but what Iran 32 00:02:13,453 --> 00:02:18,173 Speaker 2: or its proxies can do is attack soft targets. What 33 00:02:18,213 --> 00:02:22,373 Speaker 2: Iran can do is resource small pockets of radicalized people 34 00:02:23,013 --> 00:02:26,573 Speaker 2: in countries all around the world to inflict outsized pain 35 00:02:26,933 --> 00:02:31,133 Speaker 2: and terror. Think about it that there are billions of Muslims, 36 00:02:31,133 --> 00:02:33,493 Speaker 2: there are hundreds of millions of Shia who will be 37 00:02:33,573 --> 00:02:37,533 Speaker 2: watching the war this week, and while I'm sure many 38 00:02:37,693 --> 00:02:42,293 Speaker 2: absolutely detest the Iranian regime, I'm sure there will be 39 00:02:42,373 --> 00:02:45,933 Speaker 2: some who will view this as a war on Islam, 40 00:02:46,773 --> 00:02:49,573 Speaker 2: And sadly, I think if we have learned anything this century. 41 00:02:49,613 --> 00:02:55,373 Speaker 2: It's not if we've learned anything this century. I think 42 00:02:55,413 --> 00:02:59,333 Speaker 2: it's that the conflict is very likely to inspire terrorism 43 00:02:59,813 --> 00:03:01,613 Speaker 2: in the future. It might not come in the next 44 00:03:01,653 --> 00:03:03,813 Speaker 2: few weeks, it might not come in the next few months, 45 00:03:03,813 --> 00:03:09,453 Speaker 2: but that's almost the point, right, never quite know. The 46 00:03:09,493 --> 00:03:12,933 Speaker 2: second component I've been thinking about is the nuclear dimension 47 00:03:13,013 --> 00:03:15,453 Speaker 2: to all of this. So if I were another country 48 00:03:16,373 --> 00:03:18,613 Speaker 2: watching the events of this week, there are two ways 49 00:03:18,613 --> 00:03:21,693 Speaker 2: that I might look at things. I might draw a 50 00:03:21,693 --> 00:03:25,733 Speaker 2: direct line between Iran's nuclear program and the war and 51 00:03:25,773 --> 00:03:30,573 Speaker 2: conclude that even entertaining the idea of a bomb might 52 00:03:30,653 --> 00:03:36,413 Speaker 2: end up getting me assassinated. Or I might compare the 53 00:03:36,453 --> 00:03:42,213 Speaker 2: fate of Iran or Libya or Ukraine with that of 54 00:03:42,253 --> 00:03:49,133 Speaker 2: North Korea and conclude that the only way to absolutely 55 00:03:49,293 --> 00:03:53,493 Speaker 2: one hundred percent guarantee and fully protect my sovereignty in 56 00:03:53,533 --> 00:03:56,693 Speaker 2: a messed up world is to get a nuclear weapon. 57 00:03:57,973 --> 00:04:01,213 Speaker 2: I think it's very likely. I think it's extremely likely 58 00:04:01,293 --> 00:04:05,053 Speaker 2: that this war will lead to other countries pursuing the bomb. 59 00:04:06,933 --> 00:04:10,253 Speaker 2: And the third thing that I've been reflecting on a 60 00:04:10,293 --> 00:04:13,893 Speaker 2: bit is international law. And I know this all kind 61 00:04:13,933 --> 00:04:16,533 Speaker 2: of you know, gets a bit wishy washy, and you know, 62 00:04:16,573 --> 00:04:19,613 Speaker 2: it sounds like a kind of utopian thing, But I 63 00:04:19,653 --> 00:04:22,613 Speaker 2: really think it's worth thinking about, because, look, maybe the 64 00:04:22,693 --> 00:04:26,133 Speaker 2: US will try and present some evidence about Iran posing 65 00:04:26,173 --> 00:04:30,813 Speaker 2: an imminent threat. Maybe they will, but the relative futility 66 00:04:30,973 --> 00:04:35,133 Speaker 2: of Iran's response so far has proved they didn't pose 67 00:04:35,213 --> 00:04:39,253 Speaker 2: an imminent threat, certainly not to the United States. I 68 00:04:39,293 --> 00:04:41,693 Speaker 2: thought it was telling, actually that when Donald Trump made 69 00:04:41,693 --> 00:04:44,693 Speaker 2: that video address, you know how, he released a two 70 00:04:44,733 --> 00:04:49,253 Speaker 2: minute video announcing the strikes. He didn't even bother trying 71 00:04:49,293 --> 00:04:53,333 Speaker 2: to make a legal case about the US facing an 72 00:04:53,333 --> 00:05:00,613 Speaker 2: imminent threat. And yet, and yet, the same Western countries 73 00:05:00,693 --> 00:05:04,613 Speaker 2: that have been wittering on about the importance of international 74 00:05:04,693 --> 00:05:10,573 Speaker 2: law and the rules based order have explicitly supported the strikes, or, 75 00:05:11,093 --> 00:05:14,853 Speaker 2: in the case of New Zealand, lamely refused to be 76 00:05:14,933 --> 00:05:18,213 Speaker 2: drawn on their legality. I just don't understand why people 77 00:05:18,253 --> 00:05:22,693 Speaker 2: can't appreciate it's possible to both abhor the Iranian regime 78 00:05:23,173 --> 00:05:26,533 Speaker 2: and demand that the likes of the US live up 79 00:05:26,573 --> 00:05:30,733 Speaker 2: to the most basic elements of international law. You can 80 00:05:30,773 --> 00:05:32,733 Speaker 2: expect both of those things, right, You can have both 81 00:05:32,773 --> 00:05:34,413 Speaker 2: of those thoughts in your head at the same time, 82 00:05:34,853 --> 00:05:39,053 Speaker 2: and you know, just imagine a hypothetical scenario, right, But 83 00:05:39,133 --> 00:05:43,253 Speaker 2: imagine a scenario a few months from now where I 84 00:05:43,293 --> 00:05:47,373 Speaker 2: don't know, Imagine a Chinese fleet occupies a reef within 85 00:05:47,413 --> 00:05:50,613 Speaker 2: the exclusive economic zone of a Pacific nation. Right, a 86 00:05:50,653 --> 00:05:54,773 Speaker 2: hypothetical scenario, But just imagine that Chinese fleet pulls up 87 00:05:55,453 --> 00:05:59,413 Speaker 2: and occupies a reef within the exclusive economic zone of 88 00:05:59,453 --> 00:06:03,773 Speaker 2: another Pacific country. What would we do? What we'd bleat 89 00:06:03,813 --> 00:06:05,053 Speaker 2: about international law? 90 00:06:06,893 --> 00:06:07,133 Speaker 1: Lol? 91 00:06:07,493 --> 00:06:12,893 Speaker 2: Sorry, I just think there's every reason to think that 92 00:06:13,533 --> 00:06:15,333 Speaker 2: the events of this week have proved once and for 93 00:06:15,373 --> 00:06:18,533 Speaker 2: all that the concept of international law is basically dead. 94 00:06:18,573 --> 00:06:22,213 Speaker 2: But from New Zealand's perspective, what else do we have? 95 00:06:23,173 --> 00:06:26,893 Speaker 2: What are the levers to exert influence on the world 96 00:06:27,493 --> 00:06:31,493 Speaker 2: if we cannot demand that our friends and partners play 97 00:06:31,573 --> 00:06:35,053 Speaker 2: by the rules. I'm sorry, but why on earth should 98 00:06:35,093 --> 00:06:36,413 Speaker 2: we expect anyone else to. 99 00:06:37,133 --> 00:06:40,253 Speaker 1: For more from Saturday Morning with Jack Tame, Listen live 100 00:06:40,333 --> 00:06:43,173 Speaker 1: to news talks that'd be from nine am Saturday, or 101 00:06:43,253 --> 00:06:45,133 Speaker 1: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.