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Speaker 1: So just under thirty thousand New Zealand has left the

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Speaker 1: country for Australia last year. This marks the highest level

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Speaker 1: of emigration across the Ditch since twenty twelve, highest in

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Speaker 1: a decade. Mark Smith has got up early for us

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Speaker 1: this morning. The senior economists at ASP Good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Mark, Good morning.

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Speaker 1: Are these bad numbers or is this the normal outflow

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Speaker 1: of kiwis as part of our great diaspora.

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Speaker 2: I know the figures that are pretty bleak redit you

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Speaker 2: think about it. Yeah, the normal sort of average for

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Speaker 2: net migration is about a thirty thousand person inflow. We're

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Speaker 2: currently running about fifteen thousand, so about half of usual.

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Speaker 2: What we've seen over the last few years has been

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Speaker 2: a sharp slowdown and the number of people coming in,

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Speaker 2: and I've also seen record numbers of people leaving. So

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Speaker 2: it's really a reflection I suppose of how weak New

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Speaker 2: zeal economy is.

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Speaker 1: I was about to say, so we've got less people

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Speaker 1: coming in and more people going out, So what does

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Speaker 1: that say to you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very much a reflection of where we are

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Speaker 2: at the moment. I mean, comparing with Australia about I

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Speaker 2: suppose departures at the moment are at a record high,

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Speaker 2: and of that we've got about seventy thousand kiwis are

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Speaker 2: going offshore and probably about seventy percent of going to Australia.

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Speaker 2: So if you compare Australia, the unemprovement rate has been

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Speaker 2: lower about four percent of the last twelve months. Ours

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Speaker 2: is five percent and climbing. And that's already a reflection

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Speaker 2: of where we are at the moment.

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Speaker 1: But Australia is a bit of a basket case as well.

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Speaker 1: Is it the Elderado? Is it the great Savior of people?

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Speaker 1: If they went over there, are they going to be

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Speaker 1: any better.

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Speaker 2: Comparatively? Probably here, And that's probably the sad reality of

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Speaker 2: where we are at the moment. But yeah, sure Australia

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Speaker 2: is not the land of milk and honey for everyone.

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Speaker 2: But thinks they're comparably stronger over there, and people are

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Speaker 2: voting with your feet, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, So how does this affect the economy? If more

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Speaker 1: people are going and that means there's people are out

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Speaker 1: there buying, it helps continue our moribund economy as it stands.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Irad, So I think people are probably sort of

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Speaker 2: sort of struggling to realize why the New Zealand economy

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Speaker 2: and consumer spending in the housing market has not really

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Speaker 2: going anywhere the lasted or twelve months, and this is

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Speaker 2: really probably one of the key cantalysts is really much

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Speaker 2: slower population growth and to think how they're viewing things

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Speaker 2: will be you know, the economy is struggling to gain

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Speaker 2: traction and with fewer people coming in, what it's really

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Speaker 2: going to do is really constrained demand and the reserve

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Speaker 2: bank the key thing will be implacently precious down the

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Speaker 2: track will be lower. All that's equals and if you

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Speaker 2: will see the propecial path rate continue to befall from here.

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Speaker 1: And it interesting me to think about what that does

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Speaker 1: to housing because we need less roofs overheads.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. You know, the housing market is really

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Speaker 2: a key catalyst, very central to migration flows, and the

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Speaker 2: housing market hasn't really gone in anywhere over the last

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Speaker 2: twelve months, and a key catalyst that would be very

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Speaker 2: very low numbers of lower numbers of people coming in

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Speaker 2: and more people leaving.

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Speaker 1: The only answer is to fix the economy. But this

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Speaker 1: current government's had eighteen months and they're not doing that

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Speaker 1: great a job at that.

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Speaker 2: Well, it takes a long time to ten things around

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Speaker 2: so that to the moment people are voiding with your

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Speaker 2: feet unfortunately.

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Speaker 1: Mark Smith, thank you for that depressing news.

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