1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:02,960 Speaker 1: All right, I'm joined now by Sam Dickey for Fisher Funds. 2 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 2: Hello, Sam, good even Andrew Love a good piney coke. 3 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: Yep, and a cream donut for afters. 4 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 2: Exactly square anyway, So. 5 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:18,080 Speaker 1: Tariffs they're on again, they're off again, but they're certainly around. 6 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: What's happening with the market. 7 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, exceptionally fluid policy, right, And you guys have spoken 8 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 2: a lot about the will they want their tariff journey. 9 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: But it's not just tariff uncertainty. So there is uncertainty 10 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 2: on the one hand, how potential tax cuts could stimulate 11 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 2: the economy versus the DOGE or Department of Government governor 12 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 2: efficiency inspired federal government cost cutting, which could be a 13 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 2: drag on the economy. Then you've got uncertainty about the 14 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 2: independence of the US Federal Reserve. So Chairman J. Powell 15 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:52,599 Speaker 2: retires it a little over twelve months. And Trump has 16 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 2: made no secret he A wants interest rates lower now 17 00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 2: and B wants a loyalist to replace power. Power on 18 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 2: the the hand, is trying to do his job independently, 19 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 2: as it says on the tin, which is to control inflation. 20 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 2: And right now he's stopped cutting rates because the Fed 21 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 2: is as he said this week, close on inflation, but 22 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 2: not there yet. And then of course you've got the 23 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 2: US versus China computer chip war we've spoken about several times, 24 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 2: which breeds its own version of uncertainty. 25 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:26,199 Speaker 1: He's right, the fair guy, because in fact, yesterday US 26 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,479 Speaker 1: inflation rates came in higher than expected, so it isn't 27 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: under control. 28 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 2: That's right, close on inflation, but not there yet. And 29 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 2: we need independent central banks. That's why they are independent. 30 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 2: So any thing that erodes in independence is a concern, 31 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 2: and again creates that uncertain. 32 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: Well, and you just have to wonder, and I'm sorry 33 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: this is not trumped arrangement syndrome in any way, shape 34 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: or form, but you have to wonder if Donald Trump 35 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: is demanding the interest rates when inflation is still going 36 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: up and the figures came out yesterday, whether he knows 37 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: what could happen. 38 00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, he probably hasn't studied the nineteen seventies as 39 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 2: closely as J. Powell. I suspect when the Fed declared 40 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 2: victory on inflation early and inflation took off again, we 41 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 2: had a horrific great high cycle. But anyway, there result 42 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 2: the other there is not just tariff's. 43 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: The point is so Look, what impacts is this happening 44 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: on companies around the place and their bottom line and 45 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: their projections. 46 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, early days on the bottom line. But imagine sitting 47 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 2: in a boardroom in the US or say Southeast Asia 48 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:28,919 Speaker 2: or even Mexico or Canada right now today and being 49 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 2: asked to sign off on a huge capital project which 50 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 2: sort of spans the US or imports product into the US. 51 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 2: All been as to sign off on a three year 52 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 2: strategy document with this type of extraordinary policy fluid in it, 53 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 2: and it is starting to show up. So a small 54 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 2: business survey in the US just released a couple of 55 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 2: days ago showed the second or third highest uncertainty reading 56 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,679 Speaker 2: in the past fifty years. And the last thing I 57 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 2: would say on that is steels are a classic case 58 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,359 Speaker 2: or steal as a classic case of the uncertain impact 59 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 2: of tariffs. So steel stocks, for example, ripped higher when 60 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:04,519 Speaker 2: Trump was elected, and they ripped high a few days 61 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 2: ago when he did slap twenty five percent tariffs on 62 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 2: Chinese steel imports. But what's super interesting is this the 63 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,679 Speaker 2: stocks now and now much lower than they were with 64 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 2: pre Trump's election, because it reminds us these things don't 65 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,799 Speaker 2: happen in a vacuum that the average steel bar on 66 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 2: the US is not suddenly twenty five percent wealthier. So 67 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 2: there's a lot going on there and the impacts are 68 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 2: starting to show up. 69 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 1: Has this sort of thing happened before? And if it has, 70 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: what could we learn from it? 71 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 2: Yeah? The most obvious parallel, I think is his last term. 72 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 2: But the point of make there is that the starting 73 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 2: points are very, very different. So last time the market 74 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 2: was very arius about Trump getting in, the bar was low, 75 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 2: and he ended up being generally good for the economy. 76 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 2: This time the bar is much much higher. People expect 77 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 2: he will do very good things for the economy, and 78 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 2: that is already embedded in share prices before he has 79 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 2: even done anything. And the other thing, of course, is 80 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 2: that this time he's got a real head of em 81 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 2: up around policy changes, and policy uncertainty is significantly higher 82 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 2: than it was last time. 83 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: Okay, so what about the people with the money, the 84 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: investors who are trying to figure out which company they 85 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 1: should invest in. 86 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 2: Well, the easiest thing to say, I think, is what 87 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 2: Howard marks it is? I don't know, No one really does, 88 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 2: and I'm not sure some of his aides know. From 89 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 2: day to day what sort of policy is going to 90 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 2: come out. But what we do know for sure is 91 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:28,120 Speaker 2: that this level of policy uncertainty is unprecedented and expectations 92 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 2: are high, and that's one of the reasons why Europe, China, 93 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 2: and even Mexican equity markets are significantly utperform in the 94 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,840 Speaker 2: US so far this year. But one thing we do 95 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 2: know for sure, Andrew, is if you were sitting near 96 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 2: Trump at as inauguration, like the heads of Google, Meta 97 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 2: and Amazon were, this uncertainty didn't stop their boards from 98 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 2: signing a combined three hundred and twenty billion dollar CAPEX 99 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 2: bill for this year. 100 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: Okay, great stuff, Sam Fisher, you are very interesting and 101 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 1: very easy to listen to, and I thank you for 102 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,040 Speaker 1: your time today. And Sam is from Fisher Funds. 103 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,600 Speaker 2: For more from Hither Dup see Alan Drive. 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