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Speaker 1: Right now, we're seeing early signs of a turnaround for

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Speaker 1: the economy. Asb's quarterly forecast shows signs in fation will

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Speaker 1: fall below three percent over the second half of this

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Speaker 1: year and remain well contained beyond twenty twenty four. It

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Speaker 1: comes after, of course, the ocr was dropped slightly last week.

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Speaker 1: Nick Tuffley's The ASBTEF Economists, good morning, Good morning, Good

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Speaker 1: to have you on the show. Most importantly, I think,

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Speaker 1: because people now feel like something is turning a corner

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Speaker 1: household spending, when are we going to see it start

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Speaker 1: ramping up? Is it straight away? Is it you know,

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Speaker 1: in six months? Is it Christmas?

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Speaker 2: It's still going to take some time, and think we'll

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Speaker 2: start to see some early signs trickling through. What we've

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Speaker 2: got really is a number of people who will still

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Speaker 2: be under pressure for some time, because even though morgite

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Speaker 2: rates have started to come down, there will still be

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Speaker 2: some people where it will take a little bit until

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Speaker 2: they actually do see a change in their own own paper. Fortunately,

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Speaker 2: what we're seeing is is that a lot of people

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Speaker 2: when their mortgages come up for renewal, they've tended to

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Speaker 2: opt for a short term like six months or twelve months,

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Speaker 2: so the benefits will start to flow through, but we

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Speaker 2: just need to take be a little bit patient.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the time leg should be quicker at this end

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Speaker 1: of the cycle rather than the other end coming in right.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we've had a lot of people who have been

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Speaker 2: sitting there so hope hopefully waiting for interest rates to

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Speaker 2: come down, and had a very early Christmas present last

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Speaker 2: week with rapes coming down, so that look it will help.

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Speaker 2: And the other thing is just the mood as well,

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Speaker 2: Like it's been evident for a lot of this year,

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Speaker 2: just how many people have just been holding out the

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Speaker 2: question of and ask so much as when is my

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Speaker 2: mortgage rate coming down? And now people know. Businesses also

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Speaker 2: know as well that their customers will be seeing their

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Speaker 2: own financial pressures at ease over time too.

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Speaker 1: I went to visit a business on Friday. It's somebody

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Speaker 1: who I do work with. They're like a creative sort

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Speaker 1: of talent talent agency type place and they rely ont

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Speaker 1: on ad spend and they have walked into the office

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Speaker 1: and they looked very busy, which I didn't quite expect.

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Speaker 1: They were hiring two new staff and they said they're

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Speaker 1: one of the first industries. You know, everyone sort of

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Speaker 1: cuts advertising as then as there's a recession, they're one

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Speaker 1: of the first to feel it when it goes down,

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Speaker 1: but also the first to feel it when it's on

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Speaker 1: the way back up, which I thought was interesting.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's going to be lots of industries like that.

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Speaker 2: And I think next story you're talking about is, Look,

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Speaker 2: we've noticed over the last month or so, since there

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Speaker 2: was speculation and interst rates would fall fairly quickly, that

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Speaker 2: there has been a bit of a change in mood.

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Speaker 2: And you will see those various sectors that, depending on

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Speaker 2: where they are and the whole sequence of events, like

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Speaker 2: say the housing market is one where confidence comes back

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Speaker 2: fairly quickly as well as one example of an industry

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Speaker 2: that will turn around a bit quicker.

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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for that, Nick Tuffley, with us the

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Speaker 1: ASP Chief Economists. For more from News Talks THE'B listen

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Speaker 1: live on air or online, and keep it shows with

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